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- The Intertropical Front (ITF) continued its northward movement, and is currently located north of its normal position during the second dekad of July across the region.
- The main rainy season (March to July) in the bi-modal zone has been characterized by mostly below-average to average rainfall totals that were well distributed in time (Figure 2).
- The Sudano-Guinean zone experienced modest rains from 1 April to 20 July (Figure 2 and 3).
- In the Sahelian zone planting generally took place on time or early, however some slight delays have been observed over eastern Senegal, west Mali, northwest Nigeria and central Chad.
Figure 1
Source: NOAA/CPC
- From July 11-20, the Inter-Tropical Front (ITF) moved northward along most of its length (Figure 1). The western portion (10W-10E) was located at approximately 18.9N, which is 0.3 degrees above its climatological position. The eastern portion (20E-35E) was located at 17.5N, 1.2 degrees above the long-term average. Overall, the ITF is located above its climatological and previous positions over the region.
- Rainfall analysis shows continued adequate and favorable moisture conditions for planted crops in the region with few exceptions:
- The Sahelian zone, where planting delays have significant impacts due to the limited length of the growing period, has mostly received adequate and well-distributed rainfall during the 1 April - 20 July period (Figure 2 and 3). Consequently, planting has taken place on time or earlier than normal over most of the area with the exception in eastern Senegal, western Mali, around Niger-Benin border, and some pockets in north Nigeria where planting delays have been observed. These delays are mostly slight and are not expected to have any negative impact on the season outcome due to the favorable forecast during the July-September period. Central Chad, however, is the exception, where longer delays in the onset of rains could have impacts on production (Figure 4).
- In the Sudano-Guinean zone the agro-climatological conditions have been favorable for crop development despite some areas with delayed planting. Planting delays of 2-4 dekads have been observed in southern Mali and Burkina Faso, north east Cote d’Ivoire, northwest Ghana, and southern Chad and northern Central African Republic (Figure 4). Crops in delay- affected areas are not expected to suffer from any negative effects due to the sufficient length of the growing period.
- The main rainy season (March to July) in the bimodal zone has nearly ended. Planted crops have benefited from adequate and well distributed rains, resulting in favorable conditions for crop growth and development.
Figure 2
Source: USGS/UCSB
Figure 3
Source: USGS/UCSB
Figure 4
Source: USGS/UCSB
- According to the short and medium term forecasts from NOAA-CPC, and CHC-UCSB, rainfall is expected to continue expanding northward normally and no significant dry spells are expected within the next two weeks over most of the region except in the extreme western parts of the region. This medium-term forecast indicates that dry conditions are expected during this week over northern Senegal, southern Mauritania, and small pockets in central Mali whereas next week any dryness is expected to disappear.
- The NOAA-CPC Northern American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) Lead Center Multi-Model Ensemble, and the C3S (Copernicus Climate Change Service) seasonal forecasts for the next several three-month periods (July-September and August-October) generally predict average to above-average seasonal rainfall conditions over most of the region.
Source: FEWS NET
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. West Africa Seasonal Monitor August 7, 2024: Good seasonal progress with mostly average to above-average and well-distributed rainfall over the region, 2024.
FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.