Seasonal Monitor

Despite a late start, the Sahel seasonal rainfall is mostly average to above-average and well distributed

August 2021

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • There are clear signs the Intertropical Front (ITF) has reached its northernmost position during the last couple of dekads.  Its southward retreat is expected to start soon.

  • Heavy rainfall of above 200 mm has affected large areas in southwestern Mali, the western half of Guinea, and western Sierra Leone raising flooding concerns.

  • Persistence of dryness around Lake Chad area and extending into Far North Cameroon, is likely to have negative consequences on crops and pastures production.

UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS

  • The ITF is located between 16.5 degrees of latitude north in eastern Chad to 21.3 degrees in Mauritania as of the end of the second dekad of August around its climatological position over most of the region (Figure 1).  For the last three dekads the Intertropical Front (ITF) has been going back and forth around the same position throughout its regional extent.  Considering the warm current and forecast Gulf of Guinea SSTs, this is an indication that the ITF has reached its northernmost position for the current season.  Its southward retreat is expected soon.
  • The delayed ascent of the ITF this season has resulted in rainfall deficit that persisted over 2 large portions of the Sahelian zone till mid-July.  This early season Sahelian deficit areas included an area covering Niger, northern Nigeria and extending into western Chad and another one in the extreme western Sahel extending from eastern Senegal into central southern Mauritania.  Beginning from mid-July, the rainfall situation over the region has improved resulting in a significant decline in the rainfall deficits. The seasonal cumulative rainfall from May 1st to August 25 (Figure 2) has been above average over most of the region.  However, negative impact of dryness on crop and pasture development over areas where dryness has persisted for a very long time such as Far North Cameroon and Lake Chad is expected.

FORECASTS

  • According to the short and medium term forecasts from NOAA-CPC, rainfall is expected to continue over the whole region including the northern edge of the Sahelian zone and no significant dry spells are expected within the next two weeks.  This forecast combined with average to above average and well distributed rainfall observed so far favors an average to above average harvest.
  • The NOAA-CPC Northern American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) monthly forecast for September and October all generally predict average to above average seasonal rainfall conditions over most of the region.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics