Seasonal Monitor

The season is progressing well with mostly average to above-average and well distributed rainfall

August 11, 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The Intertropical Front (ITF) continues its northward migration and is just south of its climatological position.

  • The Sudanian-Guinean and the Sahelian zones continued to receive mostly well distributed above average rainfall in July (Figure 1 and Figure 2).

  • The minor dry season in the bimodal zone has been drier than average (Figure 1).

Update on Seasonal Progress

  • The Intertropical Front (ITF) continues its northward seasonal migration and is now located between 18-20 degrees of latitude north.  It is slightly north of its climatological position from north-central Mali and eastward and slightly south of it in the western part of north-central Mali and Mauritania.
  • The Sahelian zone continues to receive mostly above average and well distributed rainfall (Figure 1 and Figure 2).  Drier than average areas include northern Maradi and southwestern Tahoua regions in Niger and southwestern Gao region in Mali.
  • The Sudanian-Guinean zone has also received average to above average and well distributed rainfall, and  even in north-central Cote d’Ivoire that suffered from both below average rainfall condition and long dry spells earlier in the season, moisture conditions have improved significantly.
  • Generally, the growing season has been progressing well in the region.  Moisture conditions due to mostly above average and well distributed rainfall in the Sahelian zone, that is most sensitive to dryness, have been adequate for crops development and growth l This includes the few marginal agricultural areas that were affected by below average rainfall spells in June, but still  benefited from good time distribution of rainfall that offset the rainfall deficits’ effects on crops.

Forecasts

  • According to the short and medium term forecasts from CHC/UCSB and from NOAA/CPC rainfall is expected to continue expanding northward normally and no significant dry spells are expected within the next two weeks.
  • The NOAA-CPC Northern American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast for the final two months of the season (September and October) generally predict climatology to increased chances for above average rainfall in September and climatology to an increased chance of below average rainfall in October.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics