Seasonal Monitor

Average to above-average and well distributed rainfall over most of the region increased flood risks

August 2019

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • August’s above average rainfall (Figure 1) has brought needed relief in the western part of the Sahel.

  • Characterized by a good time distribution over most of the region (Figure 2) August rainfall has resulted in favorable moisture conditions for both crops and pastures.

  • August’s mostly above average and well distributed rainfall has resulted in increased flood risk (Figure 3).

Update on Seasonal Progress

  • The ITF’s northward migration continued and is at the third dekad of August positioned between 16.1 at the eastern border of Chad and 22.1 degrees of latitude at 5 degrees of longitude west at Mali-Mauritania border. It is located 2-3 degrees north of its climatological position throughout the region.
  • Rainfall analysis indicates continued adequate and favorable moisture conditions for planted crops in the region including areas like Senegal and Mauritania where planting delays of up to 4 dekads have been observed. However, the mostly above average rainfall that prevailed particularly toward the end of August resulted in an increased risk for flooding in many basins of the region (Figure 3).  Should this rainfall trend continue into September significant crop damage from floods is to be expected.
  • The bimodal zone where the short dry season prevailed since late July has received a significant amount of rainfall during the third dekad of August.  This indicates the end of the short dry season and the beginning of the minor rainy season (August to October).  Moisture conditions are favorable for planting at this start of the minor season.
  • The monthly forecasts from NOAA/CPC calls for  slight chances for below average rainfall over the western part of the Sahel (southern Mauritania-Senegal), slight chances for above average rainfall in parts of Mali and Niger and climatology elsewhere.  This forecast suggest that the flooding threat will subside.

Forecasts

  • The seasonal forecast from NOAA-NCEP for the next three-month period (September to November) calls for above-average rainfall over most of the Sahelian part of the region from Mali to Chad, Nigeria and the northern parts of Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo and Benin.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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