Nigeria Market Monitoring Bulletin

In June 2016, FEWS NET released an alert describing the national and regional implications of declining global crude oil prices on the Nigerian economy and subsequent currency depreciation since 2015. Within the context of this national economic shock, more than 3 million people in Northeast Nigeria already face significant food insecurity due to the Boko-Haram conflict. The Nigeria Market Monitoring Bulletin provides a summary of emerging market trends in Nigeria and the broader region. 

• Recent increases in oil revenues along with revenues from non-oil sectors such as agriculture, are gradually helping drive Nigeria’s economy out of recession. Major economic indicators continue to improve (positive GDP of about 0.55 in 2017Q2, increased foreign reserve levels, strengthening currency, and declining inflation). 

• The gap between the official inter-bank exchange rate and the parallel Bureau-de-Change rate continues to reduce, bringing about relative stability in prices of imported staples on the national level. On-going early harvests have also impacted general food prices. 

• The current regional prices still favor Nigerian staple traders as prices in Nigeria are relatively cheaper compared to Niger. 

• August 2017 maize and imported rice prices are above 2016 levels in most markets. While prices have begun trending closer to average in a few markets, particularly for imported rice, prices in most markets remain above average. As a result, although improving, the purchasing power of most households in Nigeria remains weak. 

• Compared to July 2017 levels, Nigeria’s northeastern markets show relatively stable prices with slight increases for maize, rice, and sorghum and a higher increment for cowpea. Staple prices in Mubi increased in August but remain cheaper compared to other regional markets. Maize and rice prices in Potiskum and Damaturu markets in Yobe showed slight marginal decreases from July to August 2017. The price of cowpea increased in Damaturu and is cheapest in Potiskum, among selected markets.