Nigeria Market Monitoring Bulletin

The Nigerian Naira (NGN) has depreciated by more than 40 percent since mid- 2016, a trend that persisted in July (Figure 1). This followed the Central Bank’s decision to allow the exchange rate to float in June. Since June, the Interbank exchange rate (Oanda) has approached the parallel (Bureau de Change) rate (Figure 1). Both were over 300 NGN/USD in July. The national inflation rate increased to 17.1 percent in July. Gasoline prices were stable after varying earlier in the year.

Nigeria has very a large import bill. This includes rice, typically sourced from international markets, and livestock, sourced from within the region. The depreciation of Naira has increased the cost of imported products, reducing household and trader purchasing power and triggering substitution toward local products, especially for cereals, and substantially increasing those prices as well.

The depreciation of the NGN has affected relative regional price trends since 2015. This has resulted in increased Nigerian cereal exports to regional markets, predominantly using CFA francs (XOF) currency, and reduced Nigerian livestock imports, thus negatively affecting prices for pastoralists.

Markets remain heavily disrupted in Northeast Nigeria in the Lake Chad region due to the effects of the Boko Haram related conflict. Significant portions of Borno and Yobe States are inaccessible due to military operations and presence of insurgents, limiting humanitarian activity. There has been none or limited market activity in many areas of Northern and Central Borno and Southern Yobe since early 2015 when FEWS NET began monitoring market functioning in those areas.

Cereal production in Nigeria and the broader region was above average during the 2015/16 marketing year; below average production was recorded in the Northeast and many of the worst-affected areas in Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa have had no production for three consecutive years. Institutional purchases for humanitarian response efforts within Nigeria (but outside of the Northeast) and the region have had no negative impacts on markets. As of July 2016, both public and private stocks could be mobilized to support response efforts to accessible areas of the Northeast.