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Nigeria Market Monitoring Bulletin

  • Special Report
  • Nigeria
  • November 13, 2018
Nigeria Market Monitoring Bulletin

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  • Key Messages
  • Preface

  • Preface

    In June 2016, FEWS NET released an alert describing the national and regional implications of declining global crude oil prices on the Nigerian economy and subsequent currency depreciation since 2015. Within the context of this national economic shock, more than 3 million people in Northeast Nigeria already face significant food insecurity due to the Boko-Haram conflict. The Nigeria Market Monitoring Bulletin provides a summary of emerging market trends in Nigeria and the broader region.

    Key Messages
    • Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators continue to improve, as evidenced by gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Consumer price index (CPI) has been on a general downward trend but increased slightly between August and September. Global crude oil prices are improving, and Nigerian foreign exchange reserves continue to grow. 

    • Nigeria’s positive trade balance continued to grow in Q2 2018, representing more than 350 percent growth since Q2 2017. Crude oil represented 84 percent of all exports in Q2 2018. Inter-bank and Bureau de Change NGN/USD rates have remained steady in recent months. These trends indicate a relatively positive short to medium term outlook for Nigeria.

    • Prices of major staples, including cereals and tubers, remain elevated relative to average levels. However, prices are generally lower than last year across monitored markets. Prices remain relatively higher in northeast Nigeria due to insecurity. Staple cereal prices, particularly millet, are relatively cheaper in Nigeria than Niger. Additionally, there is increased cowpea demand in Nigeria, particularly in Kano, Dawanau market.

    • Prices in northeast Nigeria are relatively higher than the rest of the country due to relatively higher demand and lower supply. Market functionality remains constrained by poor transport infrastructure and insecurity. The cost of the Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB) for family of five decreased in September 2018 in both Maiduguri and Damaturu compared to the SMEB in August 2018.

    Occasionally, FEWS NET will publish a Special Report that serves to provide an in-depth analysis of food security issues of particular concern that are not covered in FEWS NET’s regular monthly reporting. These reports may focus on a specific factor driving food security outcomes anywhere in the world during a specified period of time. For example, in 2019, FEWS NET produced a Special Report on widespread flooding in East Africa and its associated impacts on regional food security.

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