Conflict and flooding are driving high food assistance needs amidst early harvests

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Across northern Nigeria, conflict continues to constrain access to farmlands, reduce livestock grazing grounds, and displace populations, driving widespread acute food insecurity. Inaccessible areas in the North East, including Abadam, Guzamala, Marte, and Bama, are expected to experience extreme levels of acute food insecurity amid insurgent attacks that limit engagement in food production and other livelihood activities. In the North West, populations affected by banditry in Katsina, Sokoto, and Zamfara states will likely face widening food consumption gaps. Between October and December 2025, food insecurity is expected to ease seasonally as food availability improves with the main harvest and prices will be at their seasonal low level until January, when gradual depletion of household stocks will commence. However, households in inaccessible areas with little or no access to food production or income will continue to face large to extreme levels of acute food insecurity. Reduced food assistance distributions are expected as key humanitarian partners, including WFP, scale back operations.
Conflict and insecurity remain widespread across northern Nigeria which continue to drive displacement, constrain income-earning opportunities, reduce access to farmland, and disrupt ongoing main season crop cultivation. Frequent attacks and abductions continue to be reported in Borno, Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto, and Benue states. In September, suspected bandits and non-state armed groups (NSAGs) carried out attacks in Shinkafi, Tsafe, and Bukkuyum LGAs of Zamfara State, and Bama LGA of Borno State, resulting in significant population displacement and fatalities. Despite localized peace agreements in parts of Katsina and Zamfara, armed groups remain active. The persistence of insecurity is limiting household engagement in agriculture and income-generative activities, exacerbating food access constraints in affected areas.
Localized flooding, particularly flash floods due to heavy rains, continued to drive population displacement, loss of livelihood assets, destruction of farmlands, and crop loss, exacerbating difficulties accessing food and income and increasing food consumption gaps in some riverine communities across the country. As of September 20, 232 individuals have died and about 121,000 individuals have been displaced by flooding. In Adamawa State, 13 communities in Yola North and Yola South LGAs were flooded and many residents were displaced by flash floods in mid-September. The Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NiMET) has also issued alerts for forecasted additional rainfall, thunderstorms, and a high flood risk across parts of the country, including Adamawa, Borno, Cross River, Kaduna, Kebbi, Sokoto, Taraba, and Zamfara states. Despite localized high levels of devastation, overall, the level of flooding in terms of destruction of property, farmlands, and population displacement so far this year is lower than last year’s.
Despite a relative easing of the inflation rate over the last few months, access to food has been limited by high staple food prices and increased energy costs, including the cost of petrol, which continues to drive high transportation costs and increased prices for services. Annual inflation eased for the fifth consecutive month in August to 20.12 percent, down from 21.88 percent in July, due to base year and methodological changes in consumer price index (CPI) calculation and slowing food price pressure due to government intervention. Food inflation, which is regarded as the strongest driver of inflation in Nigeria, slightly eased on month-on-month to 1.65 percent in August, compared with 3.12 percent in July, but remained elevated.
Staple food price trends have atypically declined at a minimal rate due to a government import waiver on key staple food (maize, rice, and sorghum). FEWS NET’s market monitoring for the first two weeks of September indicates the average price of white maize in Aba State was 47,000 NGN, compared to the same time last month (60,000 NGN) and last year (121,510 NGN). The price of millet in Damaturu was 34,000 NGN per 100-kilogram bag compared to the same time last month (54,000 NGN) and last year (90,000 NGN). The price of locally-milled rice in Kaura Namoda market was 100,000 NGN per 100-kilogram bag, compared to the same time last month (115,0000 NGN) and last year (170,050 NGN). However, while the atypically low price levels might have increased food access, reduced prices are still above average, while household demand remains below average. Additionally, due to limited access to income and reduced purchasing power last year, the food consumption gap and food access have widened amidst depleted stock levels. If the import waiver on staple foods is removed, prices will most likely increase again, negating the current atypically low prices.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Nigeria Key Message Update September 2025: Conflict and flooding are driving high food assistance needs amidst early harvests, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.