High fuel prices, flooding, and conflict drive widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes

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Northeast Nigeria remains the epicenter of the insurgency, with persisting cases of attacks and abductions, as illustrated by the attack by Boko Haram insurgents on Mafa village in Tarmuwa LGA of Yobe state in early September. The conflict has continued to restrict access to food and reduced purchasing power for internally displaced persons (IDPs), returnees, and households in inaccessible areas through the destruction of property and livelihoods. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely through January 2025 in inaccessible local government areas (LGAs) of the Northeast, with widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, in particular throughout Yobe, Borno, and Adamawa States.
The Northwest and North Central states continue to experience unprecedented levels of insecurity as banditry, attacks, and kidnappings continue. Extortions in the form of levies are imposed on communities by bandits to access their farmland. In Zurmi LGA of Zamfara state, bandits reportedly imposed a 30 million Naira levy on the village of Moriki, requiring each head of household to pay 10,000 NGN. Similarly, there was a reported attack by bandits in a primary healthcare center in Birnin-Gwari LGA of Kaduna state, where two nurses and an unspecified number of patients were abducted. These areas continue to experience disruption to market activities, a decline in access to farmlands, and a decline in access to livelihood and income-generating activities, even as communities continue to pay levies to bandits, further straining households’ income and their ability to meet their basic food and non-food needs. Some households with access to farmlands and who are able to engage in petty trade are still able meet their basic food needs and face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, while households with limited income-earning opportunities, access to farming activities, and food stocks are experiencing food consumption gaps, and face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.
The macroeconomic crisis continues to deepen across the country with yet another abrupt increase in the retail price of petrol per liter by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) from NGN568 to NGN617 per liter to NGN855 to NGN897 per liter in September 2024, with most stations selling between NGN903 and NGN1,000 per liter. In August 2024, the inflation rate eased for the second consecutive month, though remains high at 32.15%. Despite small fluctuations in the exchange rate, the value of the currency hit an all-time low in mid-September, exchanging for 1627/USD on September 10^th, compared to 771/USD in September 2023. The inflationary pressure on goods and services, particularly staple food prices, despite the reported ease, continues to constrain household purchasing power throughout the country.
The ongoing agricultural season was characterized by mixed rainfall. Following dry spells in June and July, heavy rainfall in August and September has led to flooding, particularly across northern Nigeria. As of September 10, over 342,000 hectares of cropland were estimated to be flooded across the country, with worse flooding observed in Bauchi, Jigawa, and Borno States. In Yobe State, 11 out of 17 LGAs were cut off from the state capital following collapse of 3 bridges, disrupting the flow of goods to secondary markets. In Borno State, heavy rainfall led to the collapse of the Alau Dam on September 9, destroying farmlands, and leading to some of the worst flooding in 30 years for parts of the Maiduguri Metropolitan Center (MMC), displacing over 300,000 people.
Farming activities continue with the green harvest of maize and yam and the harvest of early maturing varieties of crops. In previously high producing areas of Northeast, North West, and North Central Nigeria, insecurity has reduced access to fields and inputs, reducing area planted during the main season. This insecurity, coupled with early dry spells and late flooding, are driving anticipated below average main season production. As households begin consuming food from the harvest, access to food may seasonally increase, though household food stocks are anticipated to remain below average and are anticipated to deplete atypically early.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Nigeria Key Message Update September 2024: High fuel prices, flooding, and conflict drive widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.