Key Message Update

There are now over 2.0 million IDPs in the northeast, leading to increased food assistance needs

September 2019

September 2019

Map of Projected food security outcomes, August to September 2019: Most of the country in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) with areas in the northwest and central north, as well as parts of the central east in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) are throughout the northeast, where the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) remains.

October 2019 - January 2020

Projected food security outcomes, October 2019 to January 2020: Most of the country in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) with areas in the northwest in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) are throughout the northeast, where the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) remains.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Elevated Risk of Famine - Phase 5 cannot be confirmed nor disproven with available evidence
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Elevated Risk of Famine - Phase 5 cannot be confirmed nor disproven with available evidence
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Households impacted by the persisting Boko Haram conflict who remain in garrison towns and major urban areas in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states continue to depend on limited humanitarian assistance and markets for food. They have restricted income opportunities and are facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes. Populations in areas that are difficult to access by humanitarian actors are likely facing similar or worse food security outcomes relative to adjoining accessible areas.

  • The most recent IOM displacement tracking matrix covering July 1 to 16 indicates an increased IDP population from 1,980,036 in May 2019 to 2,018,513 in July across the six northeast states. Similarly, in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe states, the area worst affected by the insurgency, the IDP population increased from 1.79 million in May to 1.82 million in July. Borno state, which is the worst affected by the conflict recorded over 1.48 million IDPs in July 2019.

  • Conflict related to banditry, kidnapping and cattle rustling persists in the northwest and central states limiting livelihood activities. A report by UNHCR and the Nigerian government in August revealed that over 200,000 people have been displaced across Zamfara, Sokoto and Katsina states in the northwest with several refugees now located in the Maradi region of Niger. IDPs are mainly relying on their limited own production, community assistance, and markets for food. Consequently, these vulnerable populations in Katsina, Sokoto and Zamfara states are experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.

  • Stable or declining staple food prices and the impending main harvest, coupled with the harvest of early maturing crops such as maize, millet, rice and yams, are allowing more poor households to have normal access to food. Livestock/cereal terms of trade favor pastoralists who now also have normal access to food. Wild foods and petty trading are providing additional access to food and income. Consequently, most households outside conflict prone areas are facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

USAID logoUSGS logoUSDA logo
NASA logoNOAA logoKimetrica logoChemonics logo