Nigeria
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- Persistent attacks on both civilian and military targets continue to drive displacement and limit income opportunities in the North East. In Borno State, ongoing harvests have been disrupted as farmers are abducted from their fields, forcing many to abandon cultivation. Conflict-related disruptions have reduced crop production across the region, further limiting household food and income sources. Conditions are most severe in inaccessible local government areas (LGAs) of Borno State, including Guzamala, Abadam, Marte, and Bama, where households face extremely limited livelihood opportunities, minimal crop production, and no access to humanitarian assistance. In these areas, food availability and access remain critically low, and households are expected to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes through May 2026.
- In the North West and North Central regions, increased kidnappings and mass abductions continue to displace populations and negatively impact livelihoods across both regions. On November 21, more than 300 children and staff were abducted from a school in Niger State, following additional attacks in Kebbi and Kwara states in the same week. Conflict also continues to disrupt the ongoing harvest in Katsina, Zamfara, and Sokoto states, where bandits have threatened farmers and demanded payments in cash or crops. As a result, harvests in the conflict-affected areas of both areas are below last year’s level and the historical average.
- Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected across northern Nigeria due to low production, high inflation, and limited income opportunities. In conflict-affected areas, most poor households will continue to depend on market purchases amid economic hardships, further constraining their purchasing power. As household food stocks begin to deplete in early 2026 and ongoing insecurity persists alongside likely below-average off-season harvests in March 2026, the number of people facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes is expected to increase between February and May 2026.
- While inflation has declined for the seventh consecutive month, inflation rates remain elevated. According to Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics, the inflation rate dropped from 18 percent in September to approximately 16 percent in October 2025, marking the lowest inflation rate since 2022. This decline is attributed to the ongoing seasonal harvest and the stable NGN exchange rate; however, prices of processed and finished products remain high. The high cost of living coupled with escalating violence in most parts of the northern crop-producing regions have continued to constrain food access and limit purchasing power of households.
- In less conflict-affected areas, including the South West, South East, South-South, and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) regions, seasonal harvests have slightly improved food access. Additionally, the government’s import waiver has contributed to an atypical decrease of common staple food prices. However, low purchasing power of households and high fuel and transportation costs continue to limit the purchasing powers of poor households in these areas. As a result, widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected through May 2026.
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Nigeria Key Message Update November 2025: Conflict and below-average harvest sustain Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in northern Nigeria, 2025.
This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.