Below-average harvest and poor macroeconomy sustain Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes in north

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Main season harvesting, which extends from October to January, is ongoing. Cereal production – particularly maize, millet, and sorghum – is estimated to be lower than last year and the five-year average, following prolonged dry spells in July and August in the surplus-producing regions of the north. Meanwhile, legume and tuber production are expected to be slightly higher than last year and near average. Preliminary findings from the National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services (NAERLS) 2023 Wet Season Agricultural Performance report indicates national maize, millet, and sorghum production ranges from 6 to 25 percent lower than last year. In addition to the dry spells, the high cost of agricultural inputs, ongoing conflict, and localized flooding have negatively impacted 2023/2024 main season crop production. While harvesting activities are providing a seasonal increase in labor opportunities and some seasonal decreases in staple prices, as expected, the positive impacts of the cereal harvest are limited due to the below-average production.
The macroeconomy continued to deteriorate in November due to poor national revenue generation, increasing headline inflation, decreasing value of the Nigerian Naira (NGN), and diminishing national reserves. Crude oil production has seen limited improvement in 2023, rising from 1.26 million barrels per day (bpd) in January to 1.35 million bpd in October, amid continued delays in the operation of domestic oil refineries. The domestic price of petrol has continued to increase since May, following the removal of the petrol subsidy. In November, petrol prices range from 617 to 700 NGN/liter, a roughly 25 percent increase since June and a 250 percent increase since January 2023, increasing the cost of transportation and food. This, coupled with the low foreign reserves, continues to drive high annual headline inflation, which reached 27.33 percent in October, up from 26.73 percent in September. Furthermore, the value of the NGN against foreign currencies continues to free fall. As of November 27, the exchange rate is 810 NGN per USD on the official market and 1,155 NGN per USD on the parallel market. The macroeconomic crisis is severely impacting household purchasing power, heightening economically-driven crime, diminishing financial access to food, and increasing food consumption deficits.
In the northeast, there has been an uptick in civilian-targeted attacks – including kidnapping for ransom – during the main season harvest, reaching higher levels than last year. Key informants reported insurgents are raiding croplands and harvesting civilian crops, which is likely partially attributable to the poor economic conditions. Households face difficulty accessing their land, particularly in Bama, Abadam, Damboa, Gwoza, Mafa, and Monguno local government areas (LGAs) in Borno state, disrupting harvesting activities and limiting seasonal improvements in food availability. The insecurity has also increased competition for limited labor opportunities in urban areas. The impact of heightened insecurity, in conjunction with atypically high staple food prices, continues to limit access to food, particularly for households that were unable to cultivate, IDPs and returnees, and households in inaccessible areas. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to remain widespread through 2023 and expand in early 2024 as households deplete their below-average cereal harvests while maintaining poor purchasing power. In inaccessible areas, particularly in Bama, Marte, Guzamala, and Abadam LGAs, households likely continue to have limited mobility, low market functionality, and depleted coping capacity, with minimal access to own-produced food, sustaining Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes through May 2024.
In the northwest and north-center, banditry, kidnapping, and farmer/herder attacks continue to displace households and disrupt livelihoods. On November 24, in Maru LGA, Zamfara state, armed actors reportedly abducted over 100 people. Similar attacks were reported in October and November in Benue, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara states. The insecurity has disrupted the ongoing harvest in the worst-affected areas, limiting income generation and access to food. This, in conjunction with the decline in cross-border trade with the Niger Republic, is also disrupting market functionality. IDPs in major urban areas in the northwest are living in makeshift shelters and heavily reliant on limited community-based food assistance, domestic labor, and negative coping strategies, such as begging and prostitution, to access food. IDPs have limited household assets and no access to land for cultivation and are likely facing wide food consumption gaps. Despite the harvest, households in the northwest and north-center will likely experience food consumption gaps and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through May 2024. A subset of very poor households in the most conflict-affected areas were unable to cultivate are relying heavily on bartering, foraging, and begging to access food and are likely facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4).
While staple food prices have seasonally declined with the harvest in some areas, prices remain atypically high. In mid-November in Maiduguri, the retail price of maize was 4 and 66 percent higher than last month and last year, respectively. Similar increases were observed in Kaura Namoda market in Zamfara state and Dawanau market in Kano state. While the retail price of millet in Maiduguri has decreased by 5 percent compared to October, it remains 47 percent higher than November 2022. The year-on-year increase in staple food prices is mainly attributable to high transportation costs, the ongoing conflict in surplus-producing areas, and increased market demand for cereals given the below-average harvests. This has limited households' financial access to food, particularly for highly purchase-reliant households. Staple food prices are anticipated to remain atypically elevated throughout the harvest and the 2024 lean season.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Nigeria Key Message Update November 2023: Below-average harvest and poor macroeconomy sustain Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes in north, 2023.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.