Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are widespread in conflict-affected areas despite ongoing harvest

Conflict in the northeast remains at lower levels than in recent years. However, conflict did occur in November in areas of Abadam, Damboa, Konduga, Kukawa, and Ngala LGAs of Borno state. This resulted in displacement and disruption to livelihood activities. According to anecdotal reports in mid-November, conflict in Abadam LGA resulted in about 5,000 people being displaced to Bosso town in Niger Republic. Despite the ongoing harvest, many displaced and poor households have already consumed their crops from production and have difficulty accessing food through purchase. Market food access continues to be constrained due to the high food prices and low income. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to remain widespread and expand in early 2023 as households continue to face difficulty accessing food. 

Across northwest and northcentral states, conflict and flooding have resulted in large-scale displacement. Recently conflict has been at higher-than-normal levels, and most recently, attacks continue to be among local populations, disrupting livelihood and market activities as well as driving further displacement. Displacement in this part of the country is also due to flooding. According to anecdotal reports, attacks by bandits were reported in Giwa, Birnin Gwari, and Kajuru LGAs of Kaduna state in late November. Households continue to earn lower than normal income due to conflict related disruptions and high labor supply; this, coupled with high food prices, limits food access. The second season harvest is expected to prevent further deterioration in food security conditions across many areas. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through at least May 2023 across worst conflict-affected areas.

National 2022/23 agricultural production is below average due to the combination of widespread flooding, conflict, and the high cost of agricultural inputs. As of mid-November, the Nigeria Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) estimated that over 2.4 million people were displaced and 656,000 hectares of farmland were completely damaged. According to OCHA, as the flooding recedes, people are moving back to their home, where many households need not only food but livelihood assistance. The flooding also led to water logging of crops and a likely increase in post-harvest losses. This is expected to decrease food stocks available to households. 

Economic conditions remain poor as annual inflation hit a 17-year high in October at just over 21 percent. The high annual inflation rate is driven by high food prices, increasing fuel and transportation costs, as well as limited foreign reserves. Staple food prices have remained significantly above normal despite the harvest due to the higher-than-normal market demand and high cost of transportation. Staple prices remain higher in conflict-affected areas, including Maiduguri in northeast and Kaura Namoda in the northwest following conflict related market disruptions including lower than normal supply.