Conflict and declining purchasing power worsen ahead of the lean season

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Conflict persists at high levels across northern Nigeria in May, driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, which are expected to expand from June to September as conflict likely worsens and compounds the upcoming June–September lean season. Inaccessible areas of Borno State are expected to be worst affected due to prolonged displacement, limited economic activity, and restricted humanitarian assistance. Attacks by both Islamic State West African Provinces (ISWAP) and Boko Haram members on civilian and military targets have continued across Borno and Yobe, particularly in Magumeri, Gujba, and Askira Uba. The latest abduction of school children in Borno State — where suspected Islamist groups continue to target rural populations — is likely to deepen fear among rural farmers, disrupt main season cultivation, and drive additional displacement. In the North West and the North Central regions, bandits continue to attack residents and commuters, especially in Benue, Plateau, and Zamfara states. These ongoing attacks are expected to further disrupt agricultural activities, weaken market and trade route functionality, and constrain other income-earning opportunities.
Below-average dry season harvests continue to limit food availability and increase reliance on market purchases. Limited access to farmland and irrigation water — driven by ongoing attacks and abductions — has significantly constrained production. At the same time, high fertilizer and fuel costs have further restricted irrigation activities to sustained, below typical levels across conflict-affected parts of northern Nigeria. Amid declining household food production and constrained income-earning opportunities, households are increasingly reliant on market purchases, even as elevated food prices continue to erode purchasing power.
Main season cultivation is underway but is expected to remain below average due to insecurity and rising input costs. Cultivation has begun in most parts of North Central, while land preparation is ongoing in most parts of North East and North West, ahead of the lean season. However, continued attacks and intensified military operations have severely restricted farmers’ access to land. The situation is further exacerbated by the ongoing Middle East crisis, which has driven up the cost of key inputs, including petroleum products and fertilizers. As a result, overall cultivation is expected to be below average. In the worst conflict-affected areas, farming will be largely limited to smaller farmlands near urban areas and garrison towns where households seek to reduce the risk of attacks and abductions while working on their fields.
Macroeconomic pressures linked to global shocks are worsening inflation and reducing household purchasing power. Despite expectations of increased earnings from crude oil sales, global shocks linked to the Middle East crisis have slowed Nigeria’s recent macroeconomic improvements. As of May 15, external reserves fell to 45.58 billion USD from 48.8 billion USD in early April. Similarly, the exchange rate declined to 1,373.7 NGN/USD as of May 18, compared to 1,343.6 NGN/USD on April 17. The surge in global oil prices has driven up domestic petroleum costs, leading to higher transportation expenses and rising prices of essential commodities, including staple foods. Consequently, Nigeria’s headline inflation rose for two consecutive months, rising from 15.38 percent in March to 15.69 percent in April. Similarly, gasoline prices — now at record highs of 1,300-1,400 NGN/liter countrywide — continue to elevate costs across transportation, goods, and services. Overall, these pressures have weakened household purchasing power, further constraining food access for many households across the country.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Nigeria Key Message Update May - September 2026: Conflict and declining purchasing power worsen ahead of the lean season, 2026.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.