Key Message Update

Increase in conflict and continued COVID-19 related restrictions drives increased assistance needs

May 2020

May 2020

June - September 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Elevated Risk of Famine - Phase 5 cannot be confirmed nor disproven with available evidence
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Elevated Risk of Famine - Phase 5 cannot be confirmed nor disproven with available evidence
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Prolonged and recent increases in conflict associated with Boko Haram in northeastern Nigeria coupled with the lockdown measures meant to limit the spread of COVID-19 have led to an increased strain on livelihoods. This has resulted in a larger than previously anticipated number of people in need of humanitarian assistance during the upcoming lean season. Many conflict-affected households are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes. Households that remain inaccessible to humanitarian actors are likely experiencing similar or worse food security outcomes relative to adjoining accessible areas.¬†

  • Widespread conflict related to armed banditry, kidnapping, cattle rustling, and communal conflict in northwestern and central states has resulted in an increase in the number of fatalities, displaced populations, and further constraints on market access. Additionally, those who are recently displaced often have difficultly accessing income to purchase food. Coupled with lockdown, curfews and border closures related to the COVID-19 pandemic substantial populations in Plateau, Nasarawa, Taraba, Kaduna, Benue, and Niger states as well as in northwestern states of Katsina, Zamafara, and Sokoto states are expected to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through at least September.

  • The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases is increasing daily across the country and as of May 28, 182 new cases and five deaths were reported in the last 24 hours. As of May 28, a total of 8,915 COVID-19 cases have been confirmed with 259 fatalities recorded across 35 states and the Federal Capital Territory with only Cross River reporting no cases. Lockdowns, curfews, and interstate border closures as well as regular handwashing and the wearing of face masks are enforced as measures to curb the spread of the disease. Curfews have been relaxed in some states allowing households to return to somewhat normal livelihoods.

  • Despite the impending lean season and COVID-19 associated impacts, poor households in areas that are not affected by conflict are expected to continue generally consuming own foods or purchase food to meet their food needs. This is also complemented by government palliatives including food and cash transfer targeted to about 3.6 million households. As a result, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are present across much of the country. However, poor urban households who have lost their income are among those who are worse impacted by the pandemic and associated restrictions, are likely having difficulty meeting their non-food and food needs.

  • In the beginning of May, the crude oil production quota decreased by 400,000 barrels/day to about 1.83 million barrels/day per the OPEC quota. The decline in oil production quota in combination with the decline in oil prices has resulted in a significant decrease in government revenue and projected revenue. Similarly, the interbank exchange rate of the Naira has depreciated to 360 NGN/USD from 306 NGN/USD in the last month. The year on year inflation rate has increased from 12.26 percent in March to 12.34 percent in April. Additionally, foreign investors have started devesting in business, which has further increased demand for FOREX and pressure on foreign exchange reserves. As a result, the economy is likely to deteriorate in at least the medium term.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics