Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Key Messages

• In the Northeast, persisting conflict related to the insurgency continues to limit livelihood activities and humanitarian access. In March, conflict was reported in Bama, Biu, Gwoza, Damboa, Askira Uba, and Ngala LGAs of Borno State and Madagali LGA in Adamawa state, driving displacement and disruption to livelihood activities. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are present in most areas as household purchasing power remains low and access to food from own production is minimal. Populations in the inaccessible areas of the Northeast are primarily dependent on limited quantities of own-produced food, wild foods, and bartering for food. Households in these areas are experiencing wide food consumption gaps and elevated levels of malnutrition indicative of Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes.

• The Borno state government continues to close IDP camps within the state capital and surrounding areas. Planning for IDP camp closures and repatriation of refugees to their country of origin continues. Some populations are relocating voluntarily to engage in dry season cultivation and starting to plan for main season cultivation. Those who remain in camps are heavily reliant on humanitarian assistance for food. In January and February, assistance delivery declined in the Northeast; about 30 percent fewer beneficiaries were reached in January than in December. The decline in the humanitarian response is due to limited funding. According to humanitarians, assistance delivery is expected to continue to decline monthly at current funding levels, with only an estimated 600,000 people likely being reached in June. 

• In March, armed bandit attacks were reported in much of the Northwest, resulting in displacement and disruption to livelihood activities. Conflict has also constrained access to floodplains, limiting dry season cultivation and fishing activities, driving below-normal dry season harvest, market disruption, and declining access to income-earning activities. Income from land preparation and dry season activities remain constrained as households engage in limited sales of firewood, water hawking, and unskilled labor to earn some income. This, coupled with high staple food prices, drives low household purchasing power. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing and expected to persist. Households that are able to engage in some livelihood activities such as dry cultivation, petty trade, self-employment activity; however, overall livelihood activity engagement is below average. Displaced households are mainly dependent on market and community support for food with little or no income-earning opportunities. Such households face food consumption gaps and are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Some of the households worst affected by the conflict in these areas are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

• The macroeconomic conditions remain poor; however, they have not declined further in the last month as most macroeconomic indicators remain stable. Although, the petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel prices have increased in recent weeks. Petrol prices rose by about 81 percent, with diesel and aviation fuel prices increasing by over 145 percent between January and February. This is driving further increases in transportation costs. Similarly, prices of major staples such as rice, maize, millet, and sorghum remain atypically above last year and the five-year average across the country. 

• The rainy season started normally in February/March for bimodal southern areas. Rainfall is anticipated to begin normally in May/June in Northern areas, with above-average rainfall likely for the season. Below-average rainfall is expected in the Southern and Central states from June to August. Based on the above-average rainfall forecast in most parts of the country, there is a high likelihood of isolated flooding, particularly in Northern areas during the peak rainfall period in August/September. Households are normally engaged in land preparation activities for the main and dry season harvest, while the pastoralists transit to the Central and Southern areas.