Key Message Update

Insurgency and banditry continue to impact livelihoods activities

March 2020

March - May 2020

Projected food security outcomes, February to May 2020, Most of the country is experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1), except for areas of Niger, Zamfara, Sokoto, and Katsina states in the northwest, and Plateau, Benue, and Taraba states in the central east, and parts of Yobe and Adamawa states in the northeast that are experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Parts of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and parts of Borno state are experiencing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) with the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in inaccessible areas. IDP camps in the northeast are experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Stressed ! (IPC Phase 2!) except in inaccessible areas where they are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4)

June - September 2020

Projected food security outcomes, June to September 2020, Most of the country is experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1), except for areas of Niger, Zamfara, Sokoto, and Katsina states in the northwest, and Plateau, Benue, and Taraba states in the central east, and parts of Yobe and Adamawa states in the northeast that are experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Parts of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states and Zamfara, Sokoto, and Katsina states are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and parts of Borno state are experiencing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) with the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in inaccessible areas. IDP camps in the northeast are experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3)  except in inaccessible areas where they are experiencing Emergency (IPC Phase 4)

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Elevated Risk of Famine - Phase 5 cannot be confirmed nor disproven with available evidence
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Elevated Risk of Famine - Phase 5 cannot be confirmed nor disproven with available evidence
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The recent IOM-DTM assessment, round 30, conducted in November 2019 revealed more than 2 million IDPs in the northeast. Borno state recorded almost 1.5 million IDPs, and Adamawa has over 200,000 IDPs, while Yobe has over 134,000. Due to the reduction in normal livelihoods activities, and substantially lower humanitarian food assistance, reaching fewer than 70,000 beneficiaries in January 2020 compared to 1.3 million beneficiaries in December 2019,  households’ ability to access food has been limited. As a result, substantial populations of Borno, northern Adamawa and southern Yobe States will continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. Inaccessible populations are likely facing similar or worse food security situation relative to adjoining accessible areas.

  • From March 9 to 15 ETT-IOM reported 2,666 population movements, including 2,369 arrivals and 297 departures to urban areas in Borno, and Adamawa States where humanitarian assistance and safety are relatively guaranteed. Over 550 persons arrived at Monguno LGA, while 506 arrived at Bama LGA and almost 400 arrived Biu LGA, and 262 others arrived Ngala LGA, in Borno State. These movements are mainly triggered by poor living conditions, voluntary relocation and military operations. Over 680 refugees, mainly from Cameroon and partly from Niger, arrived in Nigeria within the same period, which put additional stress on local resources.

  • Conflict related to banditry, kidnapping and pastoralists attacks in the northwest and central states persists. Recent attacks have led to increased population displacement. For example, in Niger State there are five IDP camps located in Shiroro, Rafi, Munya and Wushishi LGAs with over 16,000 IDPs as of February 2020, in addition to many others in host communities. These households have restricted income, have little to no access to humanitarian assistance, and are mainly dependent on community support and borrowing. As a result, they are facing food consumption gaps with most experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and others are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

  • Most households outside the conflict affected areas across the country are engaged in normal livelihoods activities including hawking, unskilled labor and construction work. Staple cereal prices remain elevated, as is seasonally normal, across most markets, though the downward trend in petrol prices from NGN 145 to NGN 125/liter and lower will positively impact transportation costs and staple food prices. In addition, most households are consuming their own-produced food and are facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1).

  • Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government of Nigeria has closed all land borders, all major markets across the country, and limited social activities, which has slightly restricted labor activities and income opportunities. In some markets only food or medicine may be sold. The Nigeria Center for Disease Control reported 135 confirmed COVID-19 cases on March 31. So far no major impacts on poor households’ abilities to access food have been noted.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics