Elevated food insecurity persists in the Lake Chad region due to conflict

• Household income and food availability and access continue to be limited in the Lake Chad region due to below average yields in the main and off season harvests, sporadic attacks by Boko Haram fighters, the relocation of liberated populations, and restricted market activity. Worst affected households in eastern Yobe, northern Adamawa, and most of Borno states will continue to face food consumption gaps and remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through at least September.

• The Nigerian currency, the naira, continues to depreciate as international crude oil prices remain low. The increased inflation rate in February (11.4 percent relative to 9.6 percent in January) has further weakened household purchasing power. This will exacerbate the typical increase in staple food prices through the lean season from July to September, potentially limiting food access. 

• Despite rising prices, food insecurity for most poor households will follow normal trends for this time of year with a slight decline from March to September with the lean season.  Food security will be maintained from land preparation activities, the main dry season harvest for vegetables, rice and wheat in April/May and an early green harvest for maize and yams in May/June. Households will depend partly on market food purchase, but will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

• The rainy season has begun normally in the bi-modal areas in southern Nigeria during February/March and will begin normally during April/May in the central states. The season is expected to begin normally in the northern zones between June and July. Rainfall is forecasted by NOAA to be normal in the northern and central states and below average in the bi-modal areas, although due to prolonged rainfall this forecast is not expected to impact crop production. 

For more detailed analysis, see the Food Security Outlook for February – September 2016