Persisting high staple food prices and conflict continue to drive high needs

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Despite a normal start to the rainy season in the south, a delayed onset of rains was observed in northern Nigeria. Since mid-July, rainfall has normalized, with average to above average cumulative rainfall observed across the country. Main season farming activities are ongoing across the country, and households are engaging in various activities ranging from planting, weeding, fertilizer application in the north to early green harvest of maize and yam in the south. The Government and partners continue their distribution of agricultural inputs, particularly in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe States.
Agricultural activities continue to be impacted by the persisting conflict across North East, North West, and North Central Nigeria, as well as the high cost of inputs. The main season farming activities are further exacerbated by increasing level of flood across the country, with about 21 LGAs in 10 states reporting significant flooding as of the end of July. The Ministry of Water Resources and Sanitation, and Nigeria Hydrological Service Agency (NHISA), identified 31 states out of the 36 states of the Federation as high-risk areas of significant flood in 2024. Hence, the impact of flood is expected to be above last year and average.
The macroeconomic crisis persists, with inflation at a near thirty year high, and continued devaluation of the Nigerian naira. Households across the country continue to face substantial increase in prices for basic necessities, including staple foods, driving widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Vulnerable households, including IDPs, who are facing multiple shocks, including conflict and the macroeconomic crisis, are worst affected, despite several efforts by government to address to rising food prices and food shortages, including the distribution of 740 trucks of rice to the 36 states, and the FCT.
Staple food prices across the country continue to soar above last year and five-year average, reaching record highs. Below average 2023 production continue to drive early and atypical market reliance in 2024, leading to an early start of the lean season when households are primarily dependent on market purchases. An increase of 122 to 144 percent was observed for maize across Maiduguri, Kaura Namoda, Bodija, and Dawanau markets compared to 2023, with prices soaring around 292 to 302 percent above the five-year average. Similarly, an increase of about 118 to 240 percent and 249 to 437 percent was observed for millet, across the same markets relative to same time last and five-year average respectively. The atypically high staple prices, above-average market demand, and impact of the continued macroeconomic crisis on household income continue to severely limit access to food, especially among highly vulnerable households who have limited livelihood option and poor income access.
Conflict in the northeast remains high with reported attacks and abductions of farmers in parts of Konduga, Mobbar, Bama, and Jere LGAs in June and July. These attacks continue to disrupt households’ livelihoods and drive population displacement. In early July, IOM reported the movement of about 1,754 individuals in Borno and Adamawa, and cited military operations, attacks and fear of attack as part of the reasons for displacement. The conflict has continued to restrict access to food, depleted food stocks, and reduced purchasing power for the internally displaced persons (IDPs), returnees, and households in inaccessible areas. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely through January 2025 in inaccessible local government areas (LGAs) of the Northeast, with widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes expected in areas with some level of mobility, given the rising staple food price and limited access to income.
In North West and North Central states, banditry, attacks and kidnappings persist, and has continued to limit farming activities. In Zamfara state, bandits reportedly imposed levies on some communities ranging from 3 million to 26 million naira. Conflict in these areas continue to drive disruption in market activities, decline in access to farmland, livelihoods and income, and decline in access to agricultural inputs. Some households with access to dry season food stocks, and engaging in petty trade can meet basic food needs and face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, while households with limited income-earning opportunities and low food stocks are experiencing food consumption gaps and face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Nigeria Key Message Update July 2024: Persisting high staple food prices and conflict continue to drive high needs, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.