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Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes persist in worst conflict-affected areas in the northeast

  • Key Message Update
  • Nigeria
  • July 2021
Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes persist in worst conflict-affected areas in the northeast

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • The security situation continues to deteriorate in the Northeast with repeated attacks in many areas, including in Dikwa, in early to mid-July. According to IOM, between late June to early July, nearly 4,000 individuals were displaced from Dikwa. Also, in early to mid-July, conflict occurred along the Maiduguri to Damaturu road and at a military base in Konduga LGA. Conflict in July has further limited households' market access and their ability to engage in the ongoing agricultural season. Furthermore, households are likely to continue to experience difficulty accessing income. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in worst-affected hard-to-reach areas, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) expected in much of the northeast until the harvest. Food security is expected to marginally improve among some households with the harvest, though Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to be sustained in some areas. A risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) persists in a worst-case scenario if households are cut off from their typical food and income sources and humanitarian assistance for a prolonged period of time.   

    • Northwestern and central states continue to experience conflict and attacks driving widespread displacement, particularly in Zamfara State. This is significantly disrupting household engagement in normal livelihood activities and the ongoing farming season, constraining household access to income. According to IOM, over 3,600 people were affected due to conflict between late June and mid-July. Given increased level of displacement and disruption of livelihoods, in addition to the limited humanitarian presence in the region, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist until at least January in the Northwest. Some worst-affected households are likely to experience Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomes through at least the lean season.

    • Main season farming activities are underway across the country, with households engaging in land preparation, planting, and weeding in the north with the green harvest ongoing in southern areas. Rainfall between March and July has been below average across much of the country. The season's activities remain significantly below average levels given the high cost of farming inputs, including fertilizers and improved seeds exacerbated by persisting insecurity. The high levels of conflict also drive lower than average household income from agricultural labor due to high labor supply. 

    • Poor macroeconomic conditions persist as the annual inflation rate remained largely unchanged from May to June. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the annual inflation rate declined by .18 percent between May and June to 17.75 percent. Additionally, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria the NGN continues to depreciate. Since January, the NGN has depreciated by nearly five percent with the NGN trading at 496 NGN/USD on the parallel market in June. This is driving significantly above-average staple food prices across the country, reducing market access for many households as household purchasing power remains below average.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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