Escalating conflict in north and deteriorating economy to sustain high needs post-harvest

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In the northeast, the conflict continues to intensify through the dry season as government forces heighten counter-insurgency efforts amid persisting inter-faction fighting. In response to the military operations, insurgent groups have increased the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Maiduguri, Ngala, Dikwa, and Gubio LGAs, reportedly killing over 50 civilians in January. IOM reported that in the first two weeks of January, 8,500 individuals were displaced, more than double the number of displacements reported in December. Heightened conflict, displacement, and fear have limited access to floodplains for dry season cultivation activities, restricted trade flow to satellite markets, and negatively impacted dry cultivation prospects. This, in conjunction with atypically high staple food and fuel prices, continues to limit financial access to food, particularly for households that were unable to cultivate in 2023, particularly IDPs, returnees, and households in inaccessible areas. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to remain widespread as households deplete below-average cereal harvests and become increasingly market-reliant for food. In inaccessible areas, particularly Bama, Marte, Guzamala, and Abadam LGAs, households likely continue to have limited mobility, deteriorated coping capacity, and minimal access to own-produced food with very limited market functionality, sustaining Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes.
In the northwest and northcentral states, banditry, kidnapping, and farmer/herder conflict also intensified in December and January, disrupting the ongoing dry season activities, constraining access to income-generating activities, and driving localized population displacement. In late December, a large-scale attack in nearly 20 villages in Plateau state resulted in an estimated 150-200 fatalities and thousands displaced. Kidnapping for ransom remains elevated, with roughly 900 people reportedly abducted in December and 800 in January, predominantly in Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto, and Kaduna states, with growing frequency in Abuja city center and along major roads. Additionally, in border communities with the Niger Republic, markets are functioning far below average, limiting cross-border trade, reducing income generation and food access for households reliant on market activities. Many households in the northwest and northcentral states have limited remaining food stocks and are likely facing moderate food consumption gaps and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through May 2024.
In January, macroeconomic conditions remain poor. According to the Central Bank of Nigeria, the Nigerian Naira (NGN) depreciated by another 50 percent between January 1 and January 31 – 115 percent since mid-June 2023 – exchanging at 1,356 NGN per USD on the official market at the end of the month. Additionally, petrol prices remain elevated, ranging from 620 to 700 Nigerian Naira (NGN)/liter in January, and continue to drive high transportation and food prices. This, coupled with the low foreign reserves and devalued NGN, continues to raise annual headline inflation, which reached a 30-year high of 28.92 percent in December. Consequently, household purchasing power and living conditions continue to deteriorate, decreasing financial access to food for both rural and urban households.
Crude oil production saw limited improvement at the end of 2023, rising from 1.319 million barrels per day (bpd) in November to 1.418 million bpd in December amid persisting oil theft in the Niger Delta region. The privately-owned Dangote oil refinery, which began operations on January 12 and has a 650,000 bpd refining capacity, has received six million barrels of crude oil, although no refined oil has hit the market yet. While operations are anticipated to increase the availability of domestically refined oil, higher fuel prices in some neighboring countries may drive exportation for larger profits, and the slight increase in private production is unlikely to significantly reduce domestic fuel, transportation, or food prices.
Staple food prices rose through the October to December main season harvest in most monitored markets, remaining higher than last year and the five-year average and deviating from typical seasonal trends. In December in Maiduguri, Borno state, the price of maize was 14 percent higher than in November and 74 percent higher than last December. In Dawanau, Kano state, maize prices increased by 23 percent from October to December. The elevated staple prices are mainly attributable to below-average harvests in the north due to dry spells and heightened levels of conflict, high transportation costs, and atypically high purchase reliance for food during the post-harvest period across the country. The depreciation of the NGN is anticipated to continue to constrain financial access to food for poor and market-dependent households, particularly towards the lean season.
In January, dry season cash crop cultivation of vegetables, including onions, tomatoes, and peppers; cereals, including rice, wheat, and maize; as well as cowpeas, watermelon, and sugarcane, commenced along major floodplains in parts of the north. However, engagement in dry season cultivation is likely below average due to the high fuel costs, low household purchasing power for inputs, and reduced access to farmlands, particularly in conflict-affected areas. However, in response to the recent declaration of emergency on food security, the federal government – funded by the African Development Bank – launched a 134 million USD National Agricultural Growth Scheme and Agro-Pocket (NAGS-AP) project to increase crop production. Beginning with the 2024 dry season, the project aims to support one million farmers with inputs such as fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, and herbicides to small-scale farmers during both dry and wet and season farming. The efforts will likely slightly increase household food production and food availability in non-conflict-affected areas, but gains will likely be relatively minimal.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Nigeria Key Message Update January 2024: Escalating conflict in north and deteriorating economy to sustain high needs post-harvest, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.