Key Message Update

Boko Haram conflict in the northeast and banditry in the northwest and central states continue to intensify

January 2020

January 2020

Map of Projected food security outcomes, October 2019 to January 2020: Most of country in Minimal (IPC Phase 1), Areas of the northwest, central east, and Yobe state of the northeast in Stressed (IPC Phase 2), Areas of the northeast in Crisis (IPC Phase 3

February - May 2020

Map of Projected food security outcomes, February to May 2020: Most of country in Minimal (IPC Phase 1), Areas of the northwest, central east are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2), Areas of the northeast in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) with th

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Elevated Risk of Famine - Phase 5 cannot be confirmed nor disproven with available evidence
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Elevated Risk of Famine - Phase 5 cannot be confirmed nor disproven with available evidence
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The round 29 IOM-DTM assessment conducted from August to October 2019 revealed an increase in population displacement across the northeast where over 2 million people remain displaced. Almost 1.5 million of these IDPs are in Borno state and over 196,000 and 141,000 others are in Adamawa and Yobe states. Substantial populations of Borno, northern Adamawa and southern Yobe States will continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. Populations in hard to reach areas are likely facing similar or worse food security situation relative to adjoining accessible areas.

  • From January 6 to 12 ETT-IOM reported 3,071 population movements, including 2,400 arrivals and 671 departures to urban areas in Borno and Adamawa States. 700 persons arrived at Ngala LGA, while 301 arrived at Michika in Adamawa State and 196 in Bama LGA. Movement is mainly triggered by poor living conditions, voluntary relocation and fear of attacks. From October to December 2019 over 3,200 IDPs arrived in Ngala and a similar number arrived in Askira/Uba LGA in Borno State. Almost 1000 new arrivals from inaccessible areas were recorded within the same period.

  • Communal conflict, banditry and kidnapping in central and northwestern Nigeria is escalating. Recent attacks have been reported in Niger, Zamfara, Kebbi, Katsina, Nasarawa, Kogi, Kaduna, and Plateau States, causing population displacement and fatalities in affected areas. IDP populations and fatalities are increasing. In 2018 there were 4,648 fatalities across the country, and 3,513 fatalities were reported in 2019. Considering the level of escalating conflicts across the country the trend of fatalities and incidents will likely remain elevated or higher in 2020.

  • Off-season agricultural activities are underway, providing income opportunities for poor households. Staples food prices remain slightly higher than the previous year, and are either stable or declining in most markets, increasing food access for market dependent households. Similarly, pastureland and water for livestock are available and are improving livestock body conditions, which leads to favorable livestock prices. Consequently, most households outside conflict affected areas across the country are facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, while others affected by conflict and flooding are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

  • The main harvest for the recent growing season for staple cereals including maize, millet, sorghum and rice are lower than the previous season and the 5-year average. Similarly, tubers such as yams and cassava as well as legumes such as cowpeas and groundnuts exhibited the same trend. This is mainly due to the persisting conflicts, flooding, lower staple prices, the prolonged rainy season in the country that damaged crops. However, carryover trader stocks from previous year have provided adequate market supplies.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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