Protracted conflict sustains Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in north

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The compounding impacts of conflicts, poor economic conditions, and climatic shocks—such as dry spells and flooding—remain the key drivers of acute food insecurity in Nigeria. Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in the conflict-affected areas of North East, North West, and North Central Nigeria. In northern Nigeria, food availability and access are severely limited by the ongoing conflict that drives population displacement and disrupts livelihood activities, market supplies, and functionality. This situation is further exacerbated by severe flooding, which negatively impacts agricultural production. Inaccessible local government areas (LGAs) of Abadam, Guzamala, Marte, and Bama in Borno State will likely remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) through May 2025.
In the North West, insecurity is worsening due to ongoing banditry, attacks, and kidnappings. In early December, bandits abducted 50 people, including women and children, in Maradun of Zamfara State, highlighting the persistence of insecurity. These attacks and kidnappings disrupt livelihoods by limiting households from engaging in typical income-earning activities. They also impact market functionality and key supply routes, leading to higher food prices. In the North East, insecurity linked to the Boko Haram insurgency continues to drive population displacement, interfere with livelihood activities, and severely limit access to humanitarian food assistance. Out of 3.57 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the country, over 63 percent are in the North East. As of November 2024, the North East registered over 2.25 million IDPs, a slight decrease from 2.37 million in December 2023. Of these IDPs in the North East, more than 1.7 million IDPs, or 76 percent, are in Borno State, which remains the state most severely affected by the insurgency (IOM).
The main harvest season concludes in December, with cereal production forecasted to be three percent below the five-year average, according to the PREGEC report. Early dry spells and flooding at the end of the season negatively impacted the harvest. According to the latest information from the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), severe flooding has affected 34 states and 211 LGAs, with the North East and North West being the most affected. Climatic shocks exacerbate the impacts of conflicts, hindering households’ access to typical food and income sources and disrupting internal trade and humanitarian assistance in the Northern conflict-affected areas.
The economic conditions continue to deteriorate, as the inflation rate increased again in November from 33.88 percent in October to 34.60 percent. Food inflation remains particularly high at 39.93 percent. Year-on-year food inflation varies by state, with Sokoto, Yobe, and Edo reporting the highest rates at 51.30 percent, 49.69 percent, and 47.77 percent, respectively. However, the month-on-month food inflation increased slightly from 2.94 percent in October to 2.98 percent in November. Despite seasonal replenishments of household food stocks due to the main harvests and the relative improvement of market supplies, staple food prices remain significantly higher than last year and the five-year average. In November, maize prices were reported to be 52 to 117 percent higher compared to 2023, while imported rice prices increased between 68 to 188 percent (AGRA).

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Nigeria Key Message Update December 2024: Protracted conflict sustains Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in north, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.