Flooding and conflict are driving high food assistance needs as the lean season peaks

Download Report

Acute food insecurity is expected to continue to deteriorate seasonally during the ongoing lean season through September. While seasonal improvement is expected with the onset of harvests in October, acute food insecurity is expected to persist in conflict-affected areas of the north, where increased insecurity is limiting improvements in household food availability and access. Inaccessible areas in the North East, including Abadam, Guzamala, Marte, and Bama, are expected to experience extreme levels of acute food insecurity amid continuous insurgent attacks that limit engagement in food production and other livelihood activities. In the North West, populations affected by banditry in Katsina, Sokoto, and Zamfara states will likely face widening food consumption gaps. Between October and December 2025, food insecurity is expected to ease seasonally as food availability improves with the main harvest and prices will be at their seasonal low levels. However, households in inaccessible areas with little or no access to food production or income would continue to face large to extreme levels of acute food insecurity. Attacks are also expected to severely impact agricultural activities in the North Central states of Benue, Niger, and Plateau. Reduced food assistance distributions are expected as key humanitarian partners, including the WFP, scale back operations.
Conflict and insecurity remain widespread, characterized by attacks and abductions across northern Nigeria. In Zamfara State, armed groups abducted 144 people and killed an additional 24 across 15 villages in Bakura Local Government Area (LGA) in early August. In Kala Balge LGA of Borno State, Boko Haram attacked security forces, resulting in two fatalities before the attack was repelled. Additional incidents include the reported killing of three people by bandits in Benue on August 13 and the killing of about 13 people by bandits in Katsina’s Malumfashi LGA. In Mobbar LGA near the Lake Chad region, a failed Boko Haram ambush resulted in casualties among both insurgents and soldiers. These recurrent attacks, alongside the persistent risk of violence, continue to drive displacement, constrain income-earning opportunities, reduce access to farmland, and disrupt ongoing main season cultivation, further limiting food production.
Flooding, particularly flash floods due to heavy rains, continued to exacerbate the pressure on food security across the country, driving large-scale population displacement, loss of livelihoods, destruction of farmlands, crop loss, exacerbating the limited access to food and income, and increasing food consumption gaps. About 22 states have been affected by floods as of August 12, according to the National Emergency Management Agency. Reported cases of flooding in Adamawa occurred between late July and early August, leading to about 25 deaths, 11 missing, and 5,560 displaced people. Reported floods in Afikpo LGA of Ebonyi State affected over 8,000 farms and 3,000 households, with several displacements. The Nigeria Meteorological Agency has issued an alert for further heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and a high flood risk across parts of the country, including Borno, Cross River, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara states.
Access to food is limited by continued high inflation (despite improvements over the last few months) and increasing energy costs, including the cost of petrol, which continues to drive high transportation costs and increased prices for services. Annual inflation eased for the fourth consecutive month in July 2025 to 21.88 percent, down from 22.22 percent in June, due to base year and methodological changes in CPI calculation and slowing food price pressure due to government intervention. Food inflation slightly eased month-on-month from 3.25 percent in June to 3.12 percent in July. The Premium Motor Petrol report for June by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted a 38.32 percent increase in the average retail price of petrol in June due to the removal of fuel subsidies, selling at 1,037.66 NGN per liter compared to 750.17 NGN per liter last year.
Typically, lean season depletion of food stocks and increased market reliance lead to higher market prices; however, staple food price trends are atypically declining at a minimal rate due to a government import waiver on key staples (maize, rice, and sorghum). FEWS NET’s market monitoring for the first two weeks of August indicates the price of locally milled rice in Kano, Dawanau market was 100,000 NGN per 100-kilogram bag, compared to the same time last month (125,0000 NGN) and last year (169,900 NGN). The average price of millet in Zamfara, Kaura Namoda was 54,000 NGN, compared to the same time last month (70,000 NGN) and last year (81,400 NGN). The average price of white maize in Aba was 60,000 NGN, compared to the same time last month (80,000 NGN) and last year (120,370 NGN). Reduced prices are still significantly above average while household demand remains below average and last year due to limited access to income and reduced purchasing power, widening the food consumption gap and food access amidst depleted stock levels.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Nigeria Key Message Update August 2025: Flooding and conflict are driving high food assistance needs as the lean season peaks, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.