Difficult and Prolonged Lean Season Leads to Increased Food Assistance Needs

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The rainy season started normally in February/March in the bimodal areas and in May/June in the northern areas. However, between July and August, erratic rainfall was observed in most areas across the country, characterized by dry spells mainly in the southern part of the country and flooding in northern Nigeria. In Bauchi, Gombe, Yobe, Jigawa, Kano, Katsina, Sokoto, and Zamfara states, severe flooding has resulted in population displacement, damages to infrastructure, farmlands, and disruption of livelihood activities. At the same time, prolonged dry spells have been observed in Adamawa, Taraba, Niger, and Kogi states, as well as in most southern states with resultant crop wilting, delayed crop development and reduced harvest prospects.
Main season cultivation is underway across the country, with weeding, fertilizer, and pesticide applications in the northern areas. Similarly, the harvest of early maturing crops such as millet, yams, potatoes, and groundnut are underway in some northern regions, as well as the green harvest of yams and maize in the southern states. However, the ongoing harvest are lower than usual and unable to offset the high market purchases. Fall armyworm on maize, and other pest infestations are also reported in some areas. Consequently, the main season harvest will likely be below-average.
The poor macroeconomic situation continues to impact on the purchasing power of households across the country. Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 33.4 percent in July, slowing for the first time in almost 2 years, though remains near the 28-year high. In July and August, the value of the Nigerian naira (NGN) continued to fluctuate, showing some minor appreciation throughout the month, though still showing significant depreciation compared to last year and the five-year average. As of August 25^th, the naira fell to 1,585 to USD in the official market, compared to 774 NGN/USD the same time last year. Nigeria is currently experiencing one of the worst fuel scarcity crises, with a liter of gasoline now selling for about 900 to 1000 NGN across the country relative to 650 to 750 during the previous months. To address the high cost of staples the government resorted to implementing an import duty waiver on staples starting July spanning for the next 150 days, though delays in the implementation have stalled any potential positive impact.
The lean season has been prolonged and more difficult for most vulnerable households across the country. This is mainly attributable to the below average 2023/24 crop production in surplus production areas in northern Nigeria, leading to high market demand and spike in staple prices. The recent protests by the various sectors of the population across the country between August 1^st and 10^th led to attacks on food warehouses and looting of shops to access food. The level of violence was more serious in northern states, where curfews were imposed to curb the escalation of the protest. The combined impact of limited household food stocks, high reliance on the market, lower purchasing power, high staple prices, and the disruption of livelihood activities due to the persisting conflict in the northern regions led to a prolonged and difficult lean season for many poorer households across the country. Competition for agriculture-related labor due to increased population displacement from flooding, high input prices, and restricted access to farmland in conflict-prone areas have further limited income and market food access. Major staple prices – including maize, millet, and gari in Maiduguri, Kaura, Dawanau and Ibadan markets remain significantly higher than the previous year and the 5-year average levels.
Conflict in the northeast and persisting population displacement continues to disrupt the primary season cultivation. Borno state remains the epicenter of the insurgency with the highest number of displaced households in Nigeria. Attacks related to insurgency were reported in Konduga, Abadam, Dikwa, Ngala, Bama, Damboa, Gwoza, Marte, and Kukawa LGAs in Borno state. Despite the challenging situation in Borno state, the government is making efforts to continue to resettle more IDPs to their original communities. During the peak lean season in August, most households in the northeast have depleted their staple stocks and have resorted to the market to access food. Consequently, the conflict-affected households, including the IDPs, returnees, and households in inaccessible areas, are facing difficulty in meeting their food needs and are facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Food assistance is primarily targeting IDPs in camps in garrison towns, which is allowing the majority to meet their basic food needs and therefore are facing Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes.
Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto, and Zamfara states in the Northwest and Niger, Benue, and Plateau states in the Northcentral continue to witness high levels of communal conflict, kidnapping, banditry, cattle rustling, and herder/farmer attacks. High levels of insecurity and population displacement are constraining farming activities, disrupting market access, and displacing many households in affected areas. The ransom payment to the bandits and kidnappers has led to the escalation of the conflict in the northwest region. This has resulted in bandits acquiring more sophisticated weapons and recruiting more fighters, informants, and kidnappers. Coupled with high input costs and below-average purchasing power, many poorer households are facing food consumption gaps in the worst affected areas and are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, while others are only able to meet basic food needs and are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Nigeria Key Message Update August 2024: Difficult and Prolonged Lean Season Leads to Increased Food Assistance Needs, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.