Humanitarian food assistance needs remain high despite the dry season harvest

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In April, conflict in the northeast continued at high levels, characterized by fighting between armed groups as well as the ongoing counter-offensive by government forces, resulting in increased population displacement, restricted access to farmlands, fishing activities, and wild food foraging. As such, improvements in food availability from the dry season harvest will not be sufficient to offset households’ food consumption gaps and many poorer households will continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. In inaccessible LGAs of Borno State, notably Abadam, Guzamala, Bama, and Marte LGAs, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected as households have restricted access to markets, medical facilities, and humanitarian assistance and mainly depend on wild foods.
In northwest and northcentral states, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist as insecurity continues to escalate in April. Banditry, kidnapping, and communal conflict continue to disrupt dry season cultivation and land clearing activities for the upcoming main season, as well as lead to high levels of displacement. As of December 2023, an estimated 1,190,000 people are displaced across the northwest and northcentral states, though figures are likely higher as displacement has continued through early 2024. Bandits continue to mount illegal check points along major routes in the regions, targeting travelers leading to disruptions of market activities, and detours within the regions. In early April, the Zamfara state government enforced a curfew along Katsina and Sokoto borders from 7pm to 6am daily in an effort to curb the escalating conflict in the state. Increased fear among the population and decreased mobility will likely impact farmers who cross state borders to sell their dry season crops and other livelihood activities.
While the Nigerian Naira (NGN) has appreciated in value by about 30 percent relative to the USD in the past month, most macroeconomic indicators continue to deteriorate. According to the Central Bank of Nigeria, the foreign reserve dropped to 32.29 billion USD as of April 15, 2024, 9 and 18 percent lower than last April and April 2022, respectively. Similarly, annual inflation has maintained its upward trend, at nearly a 30-year high of 33.2 percent in March 2024 compared to 31.7 percent in the previous month and 22.04 percent recorded in March 2023. Food inflation continues to outpace global inflation, reaching 40 percent in March 2024, representing a 63 percent increase compared to last year. The poor macroeconomic situation across the country will likely constrain household purchasing power and access to food, increasing food consumption deficits and deteriorating livelihoods for poorer households.
Staple food prices have remained atypically high despite the government's effort to curb the rising food prices in the country. The increase in staple food prices is mainly attributable to the ongoing conflict in surplus-producing areas, high cost of inputs and transportation, and the atypically high reliance on market purchases as staple production was below average. In Maiduguri, the price of maize increased by 11 percent between March and April and remains 165 percent above last year’s prices. Similar trends are observed in northwest and northcentral Nigeria. For example, maize prices are 195 percent above last year’s levels in Kaura Namoda in Zamfara state and 154 percent higher than in March 2023 in Dawanau in Kano state. Gari white, a cheaper staple option in southern parts of the country, recorded a 29 percent increase compared to last month in Bodija in Oyo state. These trends are anticipated to continue through the lean season, which will likely continue to limit household purchasing power and financial access to food.
In the northwest, the ongoing dry season harvest is below average. The high cost of inputs, such as fertilizer and improved seeds, and fuel, coupled with restricted access to floodplains along major rivers in conflict prone areas, resulted in reduced planting opportunities. In the northeast, while production for the dry season is above last year, production remains constrained by limited access to land. In Ngala, Mobbar, Mafa, and Kukawa LGAs, some households received support for the dry season including seeds, fertilizer, solar water pumping machines, and fuel, which will likely locally improve vegetable, rice, wheat, and cowpea harvests underway. The onset of the rainy season started normally in February/March in the bimodal areas of the south and farmers are engaged in planting of maize, cassava, and yams. The season is expected to start on time in May-June in the central states and June-July in northern areas. While seasonal agricultural labor opportunities will likely improve household incomes, conflict will continue to disrupt access to land, inputs, and labor opportunities across northern Nigeria through September.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Nigeria Key Message Update April 2024: Humanitarian food assistance needs remain high despite the dry season harvest, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.