Conflict in the Lake Chad region continues to impact livelihood activities and food access

• The value of the Nigerian naira has depreciated by more than 30 percent between December 2015 and February 2016 due primarily to reductions in oil sector revenues in 2015. This depreciation will reduce Nigeria’s purchasing power for imported products, such as rice, wheat, and manufactured goods from international markets and livestock and cash crops from the Sahel. 

• Agricultural households in most parts of the country are consuming their own food production and are engaging in income-generating activities, such as dry-season agriculture, land preparations, cash crop sales, and migration. Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists are also selling livestock to earn income and access food normally through market purchases. Between February and September, these households will continue to have seasonally normal food consumption and will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity.

• Boko Haram conflict continues to negatively affect livelihood activities in the Lake Chad region. Affected households have had consecutive years of substantially below-average harvests, restricted income levels, and reduced food access. Poor households in these areas will continue to have difficulties meeting their minimal food needs through September 2016 and will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity, depending on the zone. 

Current Situation

Civil insecurity:

• Northeastern Nigeria: The Boko Haram-related conflict in the northeast is persisting, though at reduced levels compared to previous months (Figure 1). The most recent round of the IOM/NEMA displacement tracking matrix revealed that the estimated IDP population fell from 2.2 million in October 2015 to slightly above 2.1 million in December 2015. This is mainly attributed to the return of some IDPs to their homes, particularly in Adamawa state. Communal conflict in the central states of Kaduna, Plateau, Nasarawa, Benue and Taraba also continues with about 13 percent of the total displacement captured by IOM/NEMA in December 2015 resulting from communal conflict. About 92 percent of IDPs in Nigeria surveyed by IOM/NEMA were identified are residing in host communities, while the rest resided in formal camps. 

Livelihoods:

• Off-season agriculture: Farming activities are proceeding normally with ongoing, average to above-average harvests of early planted crops (ex. onions, tomatoes, peppers and sugarcane) in many areas and an expected on-time main dry-season harvest beginning in April/May. This year, subsidized fertilizer distributions that usually occur through the growth enhancement scheme of the federal government did not take place and support from the state governments was limited and late. However, other government input support in the form of fertilizer, seeds, and credit for off-season rice and wheat is still boosting production. In northeast Nigeria, however, the conflict continues to limit agricultural activities. Recent FEWS NET assessments to Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states and information from FEWS NET monitors indicate that poor households remaining in areas highly affected by conflict are unable to participate fully in dry season activities. This is contributing to below-average dry season harvests and a decrease in seasonal incomes.
• Main season agriculture: Households, particularly in the bimodal zone of southern Nigeria, are engaged in normal levels of land preparations for the upcoming season. These activities mostly use family labor although better-off families are also hiring some laborers at normal levels.  
• Livestock, poultry, and fishing: Pastoral resources and livestock body conditions generally remain within normal levels, and transhumant movements of pastoralists towards southern Nigeria have begun on time. Livestock prices are generally above the average and last year’s levels, resulting in favorable incomes for pastoralists. However, the outbreak of avian influenza across the country is expanding, negatively impacting the poultry sector. As of February 17^th, the avian influenza had spread to 24 states and FCT-Abuja, leading to the depopulation of over 2.9 million birds and destruction of over 380,000 eggs. As a result, many poor households engage as unskilled labor in the poultry industry have lost their jobs. Fishing in lowland areas is underway with average to above-average catches, depending on the area.

Markets and trade:

• Currency depreciation: Currently, the Nigerian naira is depreciating against other foreign currencies (ex. US dollar and FCFA), on the parallel market due to a fall in international crude oil prices and the government’s declining foreign reserve. For example, the naira, which sold for about NGN196/$ in January 2015 depreciated to NGN290/$ in January 2016. A similar trend has also been observed for the naira to FCFA exchange rate at informal cross border markets during the same time period. This currency depreciation will reduce Nigeria’s purchasing power for imported products, such as rice, wheat, and manufactured goods from international markets and livestock and cash crops from the Sahel.
• Food prices: Driven by the effects of the currency depreciation, cereal food prices have increased atypically in both surplus and deficit production areas across the country. For example, white maize prices in January increased by 22, 28, 17, and 10 percent compared to the previous month on Giwa, Dawanau, Maiduguri, and Mubi markets, respectively, in surplus production areas and by five percent on Ibadan market, an urban consumer market. Similar price trends have also been observed on most monitored markets and for most commodities across the country. Staple food prices are also generally above last year’s levels. 
• Market functioning in the northeast: Many markets continue to function at below-average levels in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states due to the effects of civil insecurity. While major markets in urban areas are open and have enough supplies to meet household demand, many others (ex. Baga, Banki, Damasak, Gamboru, Maiduguri livestock, Monguno and Ngala markets in Borno state, Babangida, Buniyadi, Damaturu, Geidam, Goniri, Gujba and Mbarero in Yobe state, and Madagali market in Adamawa state) are either not functioning or formally closed on market days, in most cases due to orders by the military. 
• Prices in the northeast: Staple food and livestock trade flows have been negatively impacted by the conflict. Additionally, market stocks have been further limited by localized below-average harvests, particularly in Borno state where recent production estimates suggest that for sorghum, millet and rice production was down 82, 55 and 67 percent, respectively, compared to the 5-year average. This is leading to prices that are relatively higher than neighboring areas and above last year’s levels. For example, the retail price of brown sorghum in Maiduguri was 76.3 NGN/kg, which was 34 percent higher than sorghum prices in Kano, Nigeria and 26 percent above the three-year average.

Food security outcomes in the northeast:

• Recent FEWS NET rapid assessment: In December 2015, FEWS NET conducted a rapid food security assessment of 24 villages in three separate local governments (Askira Uba, Chibok, and Michika) in Borno and Adamawa states sequel to a September 2015 assessment. During this round, FEWS NET conducted 598 household surveys and collected 774 MUAC measurements of children aged 6 months to 59 months old. Key findings from the survey were: 
  • Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS): More than 60 percent of the households had an HDDS in the range 5 to 12 (Figure 4). These results are similar to those found in FEWS NET’s September 2015 rapid food security assessment.
  • Household Hunger Score (HHS): Eighty percent of households had an HHS of 0 to 1 (little to no hunger) while less than 1 percent had an HHS of 4 to 6 (severe hunger) (Figure 5).  This represents an improvement compared to results collected in September 2015 when 1 percent had an HHS of 4 to 6 and 40 percent had an HHS of 2 to 3.
  • Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM): Amongst 774 screened children aged 6 – 59 months of age, 648 (84 percent) had a normal mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) measurement of greater than 12.5 cm, 115 (15 percent) had a MUAC measurement of 11.5 to 12.4 cm (consistent with moderate acute malnutrition) and 11 (1 percent) had a MUAC measure of less than 11.5 cm (consistent with severe acute malnutrition) (Figure 6). This screening data suggests an improvement in global acute malnutrition in these areas compared to in September 2015 when FEWS NET’s rapid food security assessment found that 32.4 percent of screened children had a MUAC measurement of less than 12.5 cm.

Assumptions

The most likely scenario for the February to September 2016 period is based on the following national level assumptions:

Agro-climatology:

• Rainfall: The rainy season will begin normally across the country (February/March in the bimodal zone, May/June in the central states, and June/July in the north). Based on seasonal forecasts by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), FEWS NET assumes that cumulative rainfall totals will be below average in the bimodal area and average to above average in other parts of the country (Figure 7)
• 2016 agricultural season: The planting of major staples including cereals and legumes will begin typically as the rains become established in each region. The growing season will progress as usual with early green harvests of maize and yams in the bimodal zone and groundnut and potatoes in the central states beginning in May and August, respectively. The main harvests will start in September/October and are expected to be average in most areas, except for conflict-affected areas of the northeast.
• Flooding: Average level of flooding along major floodplains will occur across the country, peaking between July and September. This will lead to normal levels of population displacements and damage to infrastructure and crops.