Crisis food security outcomes currently seen in the northeast

• Conflict relating to Boko Haram is continuing to displace populations, disrupt market and trade activities, and reduce income levels in the north, particularly in Borno and Yobe states. Food stocks in these areas also depleted earlier than normal due to below-average 2012/13 crop production. As a result, poor households will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity between April and September. 

• In areas affected by last season's floods, poor households are still in the process of recovering their livelihoods. Most of these households have also become market dependant earlier than normal and are having difficulties access food due to above normal staple food prices. In flood-affected areas, poor households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September. 

• In the rest of the country, prices for major staple foods (sorghum, maize, millet, gari, and yams) are currently above both last year's levels and the five-year average. However relatively normal income levels from livestock, cropping, and off-farm labor activities, as well as early green harvests, will enable households to access food normally. Households in these areas will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity through the entire outlook period.

Current Situation

Several months after unusually widespread flooding (July to October) caused substantial population displacement and crop damage along the floodplains of the Benue and Niger Rivers and in north central Nigeria, flood-affected households have yet to fully recover their livelihoods. Updated production estimates after the floods suggest that total cereal and tuber harvests in Nigeria were roughly six percent below-average. Maize, yams, and cassava were worst affected compared to average (-1 percent, -8 percent, and -3 percent, respectively). Substantial flood-related losses to other livelihood activities, including livestock and fishing production, were also noted.

Civil insecurity relating to Boko Haram is continuing in northeastern areas with Borno and Yobe states being worst affected. There has also been localized Boko Haram and unrelated communal conflict in Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Benue, Kaduna, Katsina, Kogi, Plateau, and Taraba states. In the northeast, this violence has continued to displace populations. Security measures (e.g. curfews, bans on motorcycle taxis, and roadside security checkpoints), as well as the reluctance by traders to visit conflict-affected areas have reduced food and livestock trade flows in the region.

Household food stocks in most areas of the country are generally average to above-average due to good localized harvests last year. However in areas along the Benue and Niger River floodplains and in flood prone areas of the north, household food stocks are below-average due to flood-related crop losses. In addition, conflict-related population displacements in Borno and Yobe states prevented many farmers from participating in agricultural activities last season and also lead to below-normal stocks.  

Dry season activities (harvests of vegetables, rice, sorghum, and cowpeas in lowland areas, as well as fishing activities) are underway across the country. In flood-affected areas that sustained damage to dry season infrastructure (irrigation systems, fishing ridges, etc.), dry season production has been below-average. However in the rest of the country, these activities are generating above average production due to high water levels in local ponds and rivers. In addition, farmers across the country are currently engaged in various agricultural activities for the upcoming main agricultural season, such as land preparations and planting yams and cassava.

Staple cereal prices are well-above last year's levels in surplus and deficit production areas, limiting household food access for poor households.  For example, at the Dawanau market in Kano - the largest cereal market in West Africa - maize and millet prices in March were 16 and 11 percent above last year's levels and 44 and 54 percent higher than the five year average, respectively. In addition, current prices for these two crops at the Dawanau market are similar to peak prices seen during the 2012 lean season. Several drivers that are contributing to these high cereal prices are:

• Reduced market supply for both cereals and tubers due to last year's flood-related crop losses.
• A substantial decline in millet production in Nigeria since 2009 as many farmers switch to more profitable crops, such as maize (Figure 4).
• Increasing industrial demand as poultry farmers increase their production in preparation for Ramadan in July/August;
• Ongoing institutional purchases by the department of Strategic Grain Reserves to restock the national security reserves.
• Increasing consumer demand for cereals as households in flood and conflict affected areas become market dependant earlier than normal this year.
• Security measures in the north, such as roadblocks and security checkpoints, which have increased transportation costs.

Despite high food prices, normal livelihood activities are enabling poor households in areas not affected by either conflict or flooding to access food through their own production or through market purchases. As a result, most areas of the country are classified as Minimal/None (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity. The exception to this are poor households in flood or conflict affected areas. In these areas, losses to livelihoods, an early dependency on the market for food, and atypically high food prices are limited household food access. The areas most affected by flooding are currently classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) while Borno and Yobe states - the epicenter of the Boko Haram conflict - are classified as Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

Assumptions

The most likely scenario for the April to September 2013 period is based on the following national level assumptions:

• Household food stocks: In areas not affected by conflict or flooding, food stocks will deplete normally in May in the south and July in the north. However, in areas affected by last year's flooding and/or ongoing conflict, household food stocks have deplete two to three months earlier than normal (in March/April) so households will be market dependant during the outlook period.
• Household market demand for cereals: Household market demand for staple cereals, particularly maize, millet, and sorghum, will be atypically strong during the scenario period as household food stocks are exhausted earlier than normal in conflict and flood affected areas. In addition, Nigerian households will likely substitute towards grains (including, but not limited to, millet and maize) due to atypically high tuber prices during the scenario period, further increasing household cereal demand. Millet demand will be particularly strong in July/August for Ramadan.
• Industrial demand: Demand for sorghum from beer brewing industries within Nigeria is expected to be normal. In addition, demand for maize will be relatively normal during the outlook period with the exception of the months immediately preceding Ramadan (July/August) when maize demand will be atypically high as poultry and ruminant producers fatten their animals before the holidays.
• Institutional demand/National security reserves: The department of Strategic Grain Reserves will continue to replenish its national security reserves through May 2013. These reserves are expected to be released earlier than normal in June/July due to public pressure to sell stocks at a subsidized rate during Ramadan and due to high staple food prices during the lean season. Due to the early release of stocks, institutional demand is expected to increase again in June/July as institutional purchase additional cereals to ensure that they have enough grains on hand to last through the remainder of the lean season. 
• Market supply: Market supplies of cereals and tubers will be below-average due to the poor 2012 harvests in many areas of the country. In addition, in the northeastern areas of country affected by Boko Haram conflict, trade flow disruptions will also contribute to below-average market supplies throughout the outlook period.
• Cross-border trade: Nigeria will import atypically high levels of cereals from regional markets through informal channels to offset the effects of below-average harvests within the country. However, formal imports of rice and wheat from international markets will be limited due to trade restrictions.
• Cereal prices: Millet prices are projected to increase three percent faster than their upward seasonal trend until June at which point prices are expected to increase very sharply (five percent faster than normal in June and seven percent faster in July). Between July and August, millet prices will be at stable but high levels as green harvest supplies become available but lean season market demand remains strong. Then millet prices will decline between August and September as households and traders sell off any remaining stocks in anticipation of the 2013/14 harvests. However, the decline in August/September is not expected to be significant enough to return millet prices to normal levels. Maize prices are expected to follow a similar path, but will decrease sharply in August and resume their seasonal trend once demand for poultry feed during the Ramadan period ends. 
• Tuber prices: Prices for both gari and yams will continue to increase at an atypically fast rate until June/July when early harvests begin. Prices for these two commodities, which are currently 40 to 80 percent above last year's levels, will remain above both last year's levels and the five year average during the entire outlook period. Due to high prices, many poor households will substitute away from tubers and towards cheaper foods, including cereals, sweet potatoes, cocoyam, and wild foods.  
• Upcoming rainy season: NIMET and other major meteorological agencies such as ECMWF, IRI, NOAA are forecasting that the onset of the season and rainfall levels will be normal across most areas in the country, with an increased chance for above-average rainfall in some areas of the northwest. The season has already started in the south in late February and will start by early June in the far northern areas of the country. Similarly, a normal cessation of the season is forecasted between October (in the north) and December (in the south).

• Flooding: Flooding during the peak of the 2013 rainy season (July to September) will be at relatively normal level. Households displaced by flooding will receive short-term food and nonfood assistance from the government and NGOs.
• Fuel subsidies: Fuel subsidies will continue at status quo levels throughout the outlook period.
• Transhumance: Starting in June, pastoralists will begin their normal movements to the north as the rainy season becomes established. However, a larger number of transhumants and their livestock will travel to west-central areas of the country due to limited access to pastoral land in Kaduna, Plateau, Nasarawa, Benue and Taraba where there have been communal conflicts between pastoralists and the farmers.
• Livestock markets: Livestock demand will remain strong with a peak in demand for beef and poultry in June/July relating to Ramadan and another peak in small ruminant demand in August/September before Tabaski (mid-October). Conflict in the northeastern areas of Nigeria will cause below-average market and trade activities relating to livestock, in those areas. As a result, livestock demand will be reverted to other areas of the region.
• Agricultural activities: Planting activities will begin between April and June (depending on the area), increasing labor opportunities and income levels for poor households. Poor households in flood and conflict affected areas will have difficulties accessing agricultural inputs due to problems with physical availability and economic access. This will cause next season's production levels in affected areas to slightly below average levels.
• Green harvests: The early green harvest of yams and maize in the south will begin in May/June as usual, slightly tempering lean season food shortages in this area. In the north central areas, harvest of potatoes and groundnuts will also begin normally in June/July period, increasing food access.

• Civil insecurity: Civil insecurity related to Boko Haram, as well as unrelated kidnappings in the south, will persist at status quo levels through September. The persisting civil insecurity will continue to restrict market and trade activities, especially in northern areas.
• Access to fertilizer: Demand for fertilizer will peak normally during the planting season in June. Government subsided fertilizer will range from NGN1,000 to NGN3,000/bag. However this subsidized fertilizer is not usually sufficient to cover farmers' needs across the country and most households will resort to the open market to purchase additional fertilizer at rates ranging between NGN4,000 and NGN6,000/bag.
• Road conditions: Poor road conditions will exist during the rainy season (May to September in the north), leading to seasonally normal detours and increased transportation costs. This is also restricting food flows, causing reduced food supply at markets in some areas of the country.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

Most households who experienced normal crop production levels during the last growing season will face Minimal/None (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes through September. These households will rely on their own food stocks until April/May and will then use normal livelihood strategies, such as casual labor and the sale of livestock, cash crops, crafts, and firewood, to meet essential food and nonfood needs during the remainder of the consumption year without adopting any atypical coping strategies. Exceptions are households affected by conflict and flood whose income and food sources have been disrupted. These households have become market dependent two to three months earlier than normal and will have difficulties access food on the market at above-average prices. In flood affected areas, households will be able to use  atypical coping strategies, such as distressed sales of small ruminants and firewood, intense labor work, and/or indebtedness, to meet essential food and nonfood needs and will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In conflict affected areas of Borno and Yobe, conflict has been ongoing for over a year which has reduced households' ability to cope. At least twenty percent of the population will resort to an accelerated rate of livestock, farmland, and farm tool sales to marginally meet food needs, and will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity between April and June.

NE millet and cowpeas livelihood zone in the extreme northern parts of Borno and Yobe states

Current Situation

Civil insecurity relating to Boko Haram is still persisting in Borno and Yobe states (Figure 5) and according to FEWS NET enumerators, many rural households have abandoned their farms to move to safer areas due to this violence. For example on April 26, 2013, an estimated 228 people were killed and 4,000 homes were destroyed during an encounter between the military and Boko Haram insurgents in Baga. Population displaced related to this recent violence led the Red Cross to open 10 IDP camps in the area.

Conflict-related population displacement over the past year has also meant that many farms were not cultivated last year, causing 2012 staple cereal production in the area to be below average. As a result, household food stocks are unusually low for this time of the year. Security measures (e.g., curfews, bans on motorcycle taxis, and roadside security checkpoints) have also reduced population movements and have increased transportation costs. This, along with concerns by traders and residents about their safety at markets, has restricted food stocks, trade flows, and market functioning.

For households who have not been displaced, dry season harvests of cereals (rice, sorghum), legumes (cowpeas), and vegetables (onions, tomatoes, and peppers) are ongoing along the major river floodplains, although less area was put under cultivation this season due to the ongoing civil insecurity. In addition, fishing activities in Gushua, Geidam, and Baga continue with relatively higher catch levels this year compared to last year due to high water levels in rivers and ponds. While these activities will improve food supply, access, and income levels, they will not completely offset the food shortfalls caused by last year's below-average harvests.

Trade activities and related labor opportunities such as loading, off-loading and guarding are limited due to the persisting civil insecurity, reducing income levels for poor households. In addition, displaced households who have lost much of their livelihoods are engaging in unskilled labor work, resulting in increased labor supply. Farm related labor wages in Borno state are currently ranging between NGN300 and NGN500 per day in most areas with higher rates in areas with dry season activities along the floodplains where rates are currently about NGN700/day.

Livestock prices have stabilized and are favorable to the pastoralists due to relatively good availability to pastoral resources and good livestock body conditions. At this time, an average goat currently sells for between NGN5,000 and NGN20,000 on Maiduguri market, while an average sheep sells for between NGN8,000 and NGN50,000 on the same market. Compared to the five-year average, goat prices have increased by about 40 percent while sheep prices have remained stable.

Prices for cowpeas, a cash crop in the zone, are also favorable to producers. While stable compared to last month, current prices are about 25 percent and 50 percent above last year's levels and the five-year average, respectively. These high prices are providing above-average cash income for cowpea-producing households in the zone.

Food prices, particularly for millet, at local markets remain at atypically high levels. For example at the Damasak market near the border with Niger in Borno state, millet prices in March were 16 percent higher than last year's levels and 54 percent higher than the five year average. These high prices, caused by below-average market stocks, above-average demand, and increased transaction costs for traders due to the conflict, are limiting household food access in the zone.  

Assumptions

Due to the difficulty of collecting information and data from this conflict zone, this most likely scenario as outlined below is based on limited information from government and FEWS NET field enumerators. The assumptions used in this scenario are the following:

• Conflict/population displacement: Civil insecurity in Borno and Yobe states will continue at status quo levels throughout the scenario period.  As this continues, additional households will be displaced.
• Impact of conflict on market functioning: Security measures, such as road checkpoints, will persist in the area, restricting vehicle movements and increasing transportation costs due to prolonged delays. This will increase the cost of trade and consequently, food prices in the zone. Due to these increased costs and trader concerns about their own safety, traders will evade conflict-prone areas of the region, limiting food flow and market functioning.
• Household food stocks: Due to below-average crop production during the 2012 growing season, household food stocks will be exhausted 2 to 3 months earlier than normal. As a result, households will resort to markets for food purchases in April/May, compared to July in a normal year.  
• Staple food prices/access: Between April and June, maize and millet prices are expected to increase at a rate slightly faster than the seasonal average, limiting poor households' food access. Prices will then increase very sharply (between five and seven percent faster than normal per month) between June and July as Ramadan increases consumer demand for cereals. For millet, prices will remain at high but stable levels between July and August as green harvests become available but lean season demand remains strong. Prices will then start to decline in September as traders and consumers sell off their remaining stocks before the upcoming harvests, increasing supply. For maize, prices will start to follow their normal season trend and decline starting in August as demand from poultry farmers declines after Ramadan. However during the entire period, prices will remain above both last year's levels and the five year average due to the persisting effects of market disruptions from conflict and resulting above-average transaction and transportation costs. 
• Livestock supply/prices:  Due to civil insecurity, the supply of livestock at markets in the zone is lower than normal as many livestock sellers aren't bring their animals to markets due to security concerns. Prices are expected to generally follow normal season trends except for a sharp increase in prices during the July to September period relating to Tabaski and Ramadan, when local market demand for livestock will increase. 
• Water levels in local ponds and rivers: Water levels will decline seasonally through May. This will limit fishing activities and reduce access to water for livestock. Once the rainy season begins in June, water levels will improve during the second half of the outlook period.
• Transhumance movements: Transhumant movements by the pastoralists will be normal during the outlook period. Pastoralists are expected to return to their homesteads in Borno and Yobe states between June and September. However do to the continuing civil insecurity in the zone, some pastoralists will decide to take their animals to other areas of the country, resulting in a below-normal livestock population in this area.
• Pests: Normal levels of crop damage due to pests, such as locusts and birds, are expected during the growing season. Normal control measures will be implemented by households and the government in this zone.
• Nonfarm income: Petty trade and market-related labor opportunities such as loading, off-loading and guarding will continue to be limited due to the persisting civil insecurity, reducing income levels for poor households.
• Agricultural activities: Agricultural activities will follow normal season trends described in the national-level assumptions. However, in areas hardest hit by the conflict, crop production and agricultural labor demand will likely be below-normal as many households have abandoned their farms. 

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

In conflict affected areas of Borno and Yobe states, household food stocks will generally be exhausted two to three months earlier than normal. In addition, atypically high food prices (particularly for millet) and below-average nonfarm incomes will limit food access through market purchases. As the conflict has been ongoing for over a year, households face a reduced ability to cope. At least twenty percent of the population will resort to atypical coping strategies (ex. intense labor work, increased levels of indebtedness and/or migration levels), an accelerated depletion of productive assets (ex. livestock, farmland, and farm tool sales) or will face food consumption gaps. Households will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity throughout the scenario period.

NC-Niger River Floodplain Rice and Sorghum Livelihood Zone in Part of Niger state

Current Situation

This livelihood zone suffered extensive flood-related damages last year during the rainy season. Flood damages to crop production were estimated at approximately 95 percent in localized areas, such as the Gurara local government. Affected households currently have no food stocks available and are partially dependant on gifts from friends and relatives, as well as limited government assistance.

Dry season harvests for rice and vegetables, such as tomatoes, onions, and peppers, are ongoing though harvests will be below normal as infrastructure has not yet been repaired from last year's floods. Significant levels of erosion in floodplain areas also caused soil degradation. This increased the costs of land preparation activities and also limiting dry season crop production. Fishing, another dry season activity, has also been below-normal due to damages to fishing ridges.  

In addition to dry season activities, households are also planting and mulching yams and preparing lands for the upcoming growing season. These activities are increasing agricultural labor opportunities for poor households. However, wages are currently below-normal as more people than usual are seeking agricultural labor opportunities to cope with the negative effects of last season's flooding. For example in the Kwakuti area, ridging activities for 100 yam heaps now costs NGN1,000. This compares to NGN1,500 at the same time last year.

Livestock body conditions are relatively good despite seasonally declining pastoral resources. Livestock prices are higher than normal and livestock to cereal terms of trade are also favorable to pastoralists. For example, an average goat and sheep at the Minna market currently sells for NGN5,000 and NGN20,000, respectively. This compares to NGN4,000 and NGN18,000 for a similar goat and sheep, respectively, at the same time last year. These high prices are due to good livestock body conditions, as well as reduced livestock supply in the zone as approximately 12,000 small ruminants were killed during last year's floods.  

Market supplies are currently below average due to production shortfalls within the zone, as well conflict-related market disruptions in areas that normally supply this region, such as Taraba, Kaduna, Adamawa, Borno and Yobe states. Trader stocks are also below normal as traders have had difficulties accessing cash due to banking reforms that have currently limited credit.  

Staple food prices have been at relatively stable levels compared to the last two to three months, although they are above last year's levels. For example, 10 yams at the Minna market (an urban market) have been selling for NGN2,500, which represents a 25 percent increase compared to yam prices at the same time last year. Similarly at the Kwakuti market (a rural market), current yam prices are 100 percent higher than last year's levels. These prices increases are likely due to the significant losses incurred to yam production during last year's floods. In addition, local rice prices are gradually increasing and now sell at NGN260/Kg, compared to NGN220/Kg last year. This is likely the result of the combined effects of recent tariffs imposed on imported rice and reduced 2012 local rice production in flood-affected areas.

Assumptions

The most likely scenario for April to September is based on the following zone-level assumptions:

• Household food stocks: Households who were affected by last year's floods have currently completely depleted their food stocks and will be market dependant until the upcoming harvest in September.
• Rainy season: The onset of the rainy season is expected to begin normally in May. According to NIMET's recent forecast, rainfall levels will be normal to above normal. Average levels of flooding are expected along major floodplains.
• Green harvests: The early green harvest of maize and tubers will likely begin normally in August. This will help to offset the impacts of above-normal food prices during the peak of the lean season. Wild foods, such as leafy vegetables and cocoyam, will also be available.
• Rice production: The Niger state government will provide additional support to rice producers as the government is trying to increase rice production from current levels of approximately 500,000 tons per year to 1.6 million tons next year.  This government assistance will boost rice production and reduce input costs during the upcoming season.
• Food prices: Prices for staple foods (both tubers and cereals) will remain above-average with a peak in prices during Ramadan in July/August. Prices will then begin to decline in late August as green harvests become available.
• Livestock supply and prices: Livestock supply on markets will remain below-average through May due to a significant number of livestock deaths during the floods last year. However as the rainy season becomes established, pastoralists from further south will return to this zone, increasing market supply. Livestock prices will remain above average during the entire outlook period and will peak in July/August during Ramadan.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

The 2012 floods in this zone had a significant negative impact on crop production, causing food stock levels to be below average. As a result, household food stocks are currently either atypically low or completely exhausted. This, coupled with high food prices, will restrict household food access during the coming months. During the outlook period (April to September), households will be unable to meet both essential food and nonfood needs without using atypical coping strategies, such as intense labor work, increased remittance levels, indebtedness, substituting to less preferred foods, and above-normal levels of small ruminant sales. Therefore from April to September, households will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes.  

NW-Millet, Cowpea, Groundnuts and Cotton Livelihood Zone in Katsina State

Current Situation

During the previous growing season, 18 local governments in Katsina state were affected by heavy, intense rainfall and flooding. Approximately 10,536 people were displaced and three IDP camps were established. All displaced households have since returned back to their homes. To assist affected households rebuild their livelihoods, the state government has recently distributed NGN61.2 million of assistance to 5,281 flood victims with each beneficiary receiving  20 percent of their incurred losses during the floods. The state government is also executing 1,083 flood-related projects throughout the zone, such as construction of drainages and culverts, to prevent future flood damages. These projects will likely be completed before the onset of the next rainy season.

Due to flood-related crop losses, as well as above-average pest damage from weevils, locusts, and birds this year, household food stocks from the main harvest are below normal. These food stocks levels, which normally last 5 to 6 months, will deplete approximately 2 to 3 months early. This means that households are becoming on market purchases in April/May compared to July/September during a normal year.

Dry season harvests are underway although output is below normal as households have not fully recovered from last season's floods and lack the capital to engage in these activities at normal levels. This is compounded by flood damage to dry season infrastructure (ex. irrigation systems and fishing ridges) and soil erosion problems. Consequently, less land was planted this year in dry season crops compared to a normal year.

Market food stocks are also below-normal in this zone due to poor local crop production. This has caused staple food prices to increase compared to previous years. For example, the price of staple cereals (millet, maize, and sorghum) increased by about 14 percent compared to last year's levels and 16 percent compared to the five-year average on Jibia market. However, prices have been relatively stable compared to last month, with price increases of less than 6 percent.

Despite above-average rainfall levels during the 2012 rainy season, pastoral resources are depleting at a rate faster than normal for this time of the year. This is attributed to an above average prevalence of livestock in this zone as many pastoralists have changed their transhumant movements this year to avoid conflict prone areas in the northeast. Livestock supply at local markets is also currently at atypically high levels as many agropastoralists are selling additional livestock to cope with their below-average food stocks. This is causing livestock prices to fall. For example, an average goat currently sells for NGN6,000 at the Katsina market, which compares to NGN 10,000 at the same time last year. These low prices are causing livestock to cereal terms of trade to be unfavorable to pastoralists, reducing food access.

Normal levels of labor migration from Niger for unskilled labor opportunities, such as construction work and agricultural labor, has been observed within this zone. While good cropping incomes in Niger have generally reduced the number of migrants migrating from this country to Nigeria, a higher proportion of those who are coming are settling in Katsina state as some other normal destinations within Nigeria have recently been prone to conflict. This, coupled with larger numbers of local residents seeking labor opportunities due to last season's poor harvests, has meant that labor supply is currently about 20 percent above normal. This is negatively impacting labor wages and is reducing incomes for poor households.

Assumptions

The most likely scenario for April to September 2013 is based on the following zone-level assumptions:

• Household food stocks: Due to last year's floods, affected households have already completely exhausted their food stocks. As a result, they are market dependant two to three months earlier than normal and will continue to rely on the market for purchases until the next season's harvests in August/September.
• Labor supply: Labor supply will continue to be above average between April and May, leading to below-average wages. Between June and September, labor supply will decline as the rainy season begins in the Sahel and many labor workers will return home to cultivate their farms. A decline in supply, as well as additional agricultural labor opportunities during the upcoming cropping season, will cause labor wages will increase seasonally during the June to September period.
• Livestock conditions and prices: Due to an above-average prevalence of livestock in this zone, pastoral resources and animal body conditions will be below normal for May/June. These relatively poor body conditions, coupled with above-average market supply, will lead to below-average livestock prices during the same period. However with the start of the rainy season, pasture conditions, water availability, and livestock body conditions will improve between July and September. In addition, relatively high livestock demand in July and August (for Ramadan) and in late September (for Tabaski) will further cause prices during the second half of the outlook period (July to September).

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

Households in this zone have exhausted their food stocks two to three months earlier than normal. This, coupled with high food prices and below normal incomes from casual labor and livestock, will make it difficult for poor households to access food between April and September. Flood-affected households will only be able to meet their basic food and non-food needs through atypical coping strategies, such as above normal levels of small ruminant and firewood sales or atypical indebtedness. Consequently between April and September 2013, at least 20 percent of the population will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity outcomes.