Favorable prospects for a good main harvest in October

• Insecurity related to the Boko Haram conflict is leading to increased population displacements and continues to disrupt livelihoods. Poor households in worst affected areas in southern Borno and Yobe States and those in the Lake Chad region and northeastern Adamawa state will continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity through December. Because of the ongoing conflict, humanitarian access is limited.

• Households in north-central Borno and Yobe and southern Adamawa States are somewhat less impacted by the conflict, though they are also expected to have harvests in October that will be significantly below average. While the harvest in October is expected to improve household food access, poor households in this area still expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity through December.

• The cultivation season is progressing favorably across much of the rest of the country. Good levels of rainfall have been observed since August in most areas, improving the soil moisture conditions and leading to favorable crop development. The main harvest, which will begin in October for much of the country, is expected to be at least average.

Civil insecurity: Casualties and displacements attributable to the Boko Haram conflict in Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa States are increasing. The conflict continues to significantly disrupt livelihood activities, keeping people from their fields and impeding cultivation activities. Insurgents have intensified their attacks in southeastern Borno, northern Adamawa and southern Yobe States as they have taken over some major towns, including Gamboru Ngala, Marte, Dikwa, Gwoza (Borno State), Buni Yadi, Gujba and Gulani (Yobe State) Madagali, Michika, Gulak, Shuwa (Adamawa State). Market and commercial activities as well as seasonal income earning opportunities continue to be restricted.

In addition to the conflict in northeast Nigeria, inter-communal conflicts and farmer/pastoralist conflicts unrelated to Boko Haram are also present throughout the country. Of note, conflicts in central states of Plateau, Nasarawa, Benue, Bauchi and Taraba are leading to increased population displacement and incidents of cattle rustling, contributing to increased food insecurity in localized affected areas.

Humanitarian assistance: As the Boko Haram conflict persists in the northeast, access to the affected populations by government and humanitarian actors remains restricted. This is further compounded by continued daily displacement of people from areas worst affected by conflict, increasing assistance needs and exposing affected households to increased food insecurity.

Main agricultural season: Crop development is progressing seasonably across the country. Harvests of early maize, millet, and groundnuts are underway in central and northern states. Harvests of tubers, including potatoes, cassava and yams, are also underway in southern and central states. Late millet, maize, and cowpeas will be harvested in October/November. Sorghum, which is currently at vegetative stage, will be harvested later in December/January. Production forecasts for most crops across much of the country are for average harvests, taking into account the observed advanced growth stages and the resumption of normal seasonally average rainfall across the country. However, in parts of the northeast, local cereal harvests are expected to be very significantly below average due to conflict, reduced area cultivated, prolonged dry spells, and limited and delayed access to inputs such as fertilizer and improved seeds.

 Food prices: Staple food prices on most monitored markets have declined or remained stable relative to previous months and are down compared to the same time last year. This is attributable to combined impacts of high carryover stocks from the previous year’s favorable main harvest, and the availability of new and early green harvests. A major exception to this is seen in northeastern states affected by conflict. Purchase prices for maize, millet and sorghum at the main Maiduguri market in Borno State in August were NGN7,000, NGN8,000 and NGN6,750 per 100 kg bag, respectively, while the same cereals sold in neighboring Gombe State for NGN4,500, NGN5,950 and NGN4,700 per 100 kg bag.

The current situation is in line with the assumptions used to develop FEWS NET’s most likely scenario for July to December 2014. A full discussion of the scenario is available in the July to December 2014 Food Security Outlook.

Poor households worst affected by Boko Haram conflict are unable to engage in their typical income-earning and agricultural activities. These households are also impacted by limited market access and will continue to face deteriorating food security outcomes. These households in in southern Borno and Yobe States, the Lake Chad region, as well as northeastern Adamawa State, will continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity through at least December. In October, households in northern Borno and Yobe States, relatively less affected by conflict, will have access to own new harvests of staple cereals and cash crops, increasing their food availability. These households will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity through December. Central and southern Adamawa State is less impacted by the conflict and poor households in these areas are expected to continue to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through December.

Across the rest of the country, households are expected to benefit from early green harvests, ongoing since May, and main harvest beginning in September. This, combined with declining food prices, and typical seasonal incomes will allow households to continue to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity through at least December.