Key Message Update

Food security Crisis continues in northeast Nigeria despite new harvests

November 2015
2015-Q4-1-1-NG-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In addition to leading to loss of life, ongoing conflict in northeast Nigeria continues to restrict livelihoods, contribute to restricted market activity, and cause significant, continuing displacement. Rural, resident households in areas worst-affected by conflict and IDPs in informal settlements continue to be the populations most impacted by the food security situation.

  • Although ongoing harvests between October and December 2015 are expected improve food availability and access, production is expected to once again this year be well below average in northeast Nigeria. Parts of western Yobe, northern Adamawa, much of Borno, as well as informal IDP settlement areas in greater Maiduguri, will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between now and March 2016.

  • Households in localized areas across the country (in parts of Adamawa, Yobe, Bauchi, Kaduna, Jigawa, Kebbi and Niger States) affected by heaving flooding during the main season are harvesting below-average production for both staple and cash crops. Affected households in these areas will likely resort to market purchase earlier than usual this consumption year as own production stocks will not carry them as far as they typically would.

  • For much of the rest of Nigeria, main season harvests are underway with generally average production expected, contributing positively to household and markets stocks. Between now and March 2016, agricultural households will generally consume own-production stocks, while other households will have good market access as prices are expected to remain average to below average. As such, much of Nigeria will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity between November 2015 and March 2016.

     

    For more detailed analysis, see the Food Security Outlook for October.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics