Conflict prolongs Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the northeast

• Frequent skirmishes between Boko Haram and the Multinational Joint Task Force have resulted in numerous casualties and continued population displacements in northeast Nigeria. Conflict is preventing households from pursuing their typical livelihoods and interrupts market functioning. As food availability and access remains restricted, much of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa will continue to experience at least Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity through to the main harvest in October 2015.

• Outside of the northeast, most households are engaged in typical off-seasonal activities. They benefit from typical income earning opportunities, good off season harvests and favorable market prices. Consequently, these areas will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity through at least June 2015.

• The Federal Department of Veterinary Services has reported the further spread of the avian influenza outbreak in 18 states across the country. Birds have been depopulated in 75 local governments across the 18 states affected by the virus.

Bird flu: A March 25 report from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development indicates that avian influenza has now spread to 18 states and 75 local governments across the country. It appears that Kano, Plateau, Bauchi and Kaduna States have been the most heavily impacted. The Federal Government has measures in place to control the affected bird population and compensation is underway for farmers whose exposed birds are depopulated. International partners are also contributing to halt the spread of the outbreak. Should the avian influenza outbreak continue to spread, however, more widespread impacts on livelihoods and food access could be expected for affected households.

Civil insecurity: Populations in northeast Nigeria and regions in Niger, Chad and Cameroon bordering Lake Chad continue to be caught between the insurgents and the military forces, preventing households form pursuing their typical livelihoods and reducing their market access. The Nigerian Government and the International Organization for Migration in February had identified more than 1.1 million people displaced by Boko Haram-related conflict, with about 80 percent displaced in 2014 alone. Reports from FEWS NET field informants in Biu (southern Borno State) have seen large recent increases in the IDP population there in camps and host communities due to increased insurgents attack in the area in early March. Cross border trade activities common in the Lake Chad region for livestock and cereals also continue to be negatively impacted (Figure 1). Further analysis on regional impacts of the Boko Haram-related conflict is available in a FEWS NET March 27, 2015 Alert here.

Dry season activities in the northeast: Information from FEWS NET field informants in the northeast indicates that fishing and dry season harvests in April/May will be significantly below average. This is particularly true in areas worse affected by the insurgency. The combined impacts of insecurity and limited ground water availability in and around Lake Chad are contributing to the decreased productivity in the dry season. Areas of the northeast that are impacted relatively less by conflict are, however, able to participate more actively in the dry season. Households along the Komadugu-Yobe River channel in Yobe State, for example, are engaged more effectively in cultivation and fishing activities. Certain IDPs are also able to participate in dry season activities. In Numan (Adamawa State) IDPs in host communities are engaged in vegetable and fishing activities along the Benue River.

Markets and trade: Reports from FEWS NET market monitors and field informants note an increased demand from Niger for cereals on major cross border markets and Dawanau market in Kano, which is likely attributable at least in part to institutional purchases for security stocks. Staple food prices on markets in surplus producing areas continue to either remain stable or declined seasonably, though. Prices of millet and sorghum, primary staples in the north, reduced by about 5 and 14 percent respectively on Dandume market relative to last month. Similarly, on Giwa market the same commodities reduced by about 21 and 9 percent respectively over the same period. Generally, the prices of most cereals across the surplus producing zones monitored are lower than their prices at the same time last year and against the 5-year average levels. The prices for tubers (yam and cassava products) also continues to decrease in both surplus (the south) and deficit (the north) producing zones.

In the conflict-affected northeast, however, food prices remain atypically high. Whereas in Dawanau market in Kano brown cowpeas and sorghum sales for NGN112/kg and NGN46/kg, respectively, on Monday market, Maiduguri the same commodities are selling for NGN140/kg and NGN54/kg, respectively. While there have been gains made by military forces to limit the control of Boko Haram insurgents, the impact of the conflict is still felt on local markets.

The current situation is in line with the assumptions used to develop FEWS NET’s most likely scenario for January to June 2015. A full discussion of the scenario is available in the January to June 2015 Food Security Outlook.

Intense military operations in the northeast and along borders with Niger, Cameroon, and Chad and with insurgents’ attacks on the market and transportation infrastructure across the northeast will continue to displace large populations and disrupt market activity in the region. Food availability and access for both IDPs and resident households will remain limited in southern and eastern Borno, southern Yobe and northern Adamawa. Households in these areas will remain in at least Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity until the main harvest in October. Households in other parts of Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa States that are relatively less affected by conflict do still have limited access to markets and income-earning opportunities. Many of these areas, which are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2), will move to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity in April as their lean season begins earlier than normal.

Most households outside of the northeast are engaged in normal seasonal off-season agriculture and income earning activities. As market prices for key staples remain stable or decline, good food consumption is guaranteed for most households. Consequently, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity is expected through at least June 2015.