Food prices stabilize, outside of conflict affected areas; rains begin favourably

• The 2012 growing season has begun favorably across the country. Farmers are engaged in weeding and fertilizer applications in the south, while planting and weeding are ongoing in the north. If rains continue as forecast, a normal harvest is expected in October.

• Cereal prices are stable in most markets across the country in mid June, but remain higher than last year and the five-year average due to high transportation costs, persistent civil insecurity, and poor 2011 production. Between June and September, market food stocks will decline normally, pushing market prices higher. 

• Food insecurity is most severe in the northwest and northeast due to persistent conflict, 2011 production shortfalls, high staple food prices, and increased cereal demand from the Sahel. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security is expected during the July-September lean season.

The 2012 growing season is evolving favourably across the country, upholding the earlier forecast by NIMET and other metorological agencies, such as ECMWF and IRI, for normal rainfall. A good harvest is considered likely in October. In addition, other food security determinants such as wage labor opportunities and market food supply are favourable, increasing food access to poor and very poor households and tempering the ongoing lean season in the south and the impending lean season in the north.

Civil insecurity persists in the north, limiting food flows to deficit areas and restricting trade activities. This is resulting in increased food prices and reduced market related income opportunities in affected areas such as Borno, Yobe and Plateau states. Cross border trade with Sahelian countries is ongoing, as the Sahel food crisis intensifies, further reducing stocks and putting additional pressure on prices. These areas are currently classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September, though if the conflict persists and food prices continue to rise unseasonably, Crisis condition (IPC Phase 3) is possible during the July-September lean season.  In other areas, staple food prices are generally stable since last month, though they remain at high levels. Millet and maize prices range between NGN6800 and NGN7500 on Dodoru market (Kebbi state), Tudun Hatsi market (Gombe state) and Gujungu market (Jigawa state). Similarly,  gari has been selling for NGN99/Kg on Bodija market since May.

The lean season is underway in the south, though it may be tempered by an early green harvest of maize and yams, starting  in June. Nonetheless, poor households affected by the seasonal flooding in the coastal states (Lagos, Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers and Cross River) during the July-September period will remain a concern.

In the North

The onset of the rainy season is a major food security determinant in mid June given its impacts on markets food supply, related agricultural labor opportunities and food price levels. This year a timely onset of the rainy season in May/June in the north central zone and in June in the northeast and northwest has occurred as forecast by NIMET and other meteorological agencies such as ECMWF and IRI. Most farmers in the north central areas are engaged in weeding while in the northwest and northeast, farmers are planting millet, sorghum, maize and legumes. Due to the favorable onset of the rainy season, farmers have begun to procure inputs and hire agricultural labor. To fund these expenditures, farmers normally resort to sale of own food stocks. Coupled with the seasonal release of stocks by traders, these sales have increased market cereal supplies. These supplies have stabilized food prices, though at high levels, and even with these new stocks, cereal availability is likely to be seasonably low between July and September.

A recent FEWS NET mission to parts of the northeast and the northwest has confirmed that the  rainy season is evolving favorably, reducing traders speculation and leading to increased food supply and food price stability on most markets visited in mid June. If the current rainfall conditions are sustained through September, with good distribution over time and space, a good harvest across the north is likely. Agricultural labor demand has also increased as agricultural activities such as planting and weeding peak in mid June, leading to high labor wages relative to last year, improved income and purchasing power and increased food access by the poor household in June/July. If the favorable rainfall persists in August/September, more wage labor opportunities will be available for weeding, fertilizer and chemical applications, and other activities, leading to further improvements in income and purchasing power and increasing food access by the poor and very poor households.

In the north central region, food security determinants such as staple food prices, onset of the rainy season and wage labor opportunities are also favorable as of mid June. Most poor households are dependent on their own food stocks and markets are well supplied. Food flow to deficit areas are unhindered and road conditions are also favorable. During the lean season (July-September) poor household food stocks will normally decline, food prices will normally increase, and poor households will shift to a reliance on market purchases to meet food needs. The growing season started normally in May/June, increasing labor opportuinities for poor households and providing the income needed for these purchases, in addition to the income earned from the sale of charcoal, and remittances. In August and September, the the lean season will be tempered by the early green harvest of tubers, vegetables and maize and most poor households in the north central zone will not face acute food insecurity through September.

The food security of pastoralists in the northwest and northeast is a concern.  The FEWS NET mission to the northwest and northeast in mid June revealed that livestock prices were low on most markets in mid June relative to average and last year. This is due to high livestock market supply from the Sahelian region, due to distress sales and an appreciation of the Naira against the CFA, as well as increased sales by local households in order to access food and livestock feeds in June. Livestock to cereal terms of trade are currently unfavorable to pastoral households. If the favorable rains persists in July through September, pastoral resources will normally increase, improving livestock body conditions and livestock prices and reducing the cost of livestock maintenance. Poor pastoralists will meet minimum food needs though increased sales of their livestock but will not be able to meet other essential non food needs and will remain in Stressed condition (IPC Phase 2).

Areas affected by civil insecurity will also face acute food insecurity. Militant attacks in mid June, in Bauchi, Adamawa, Borno, Yobe, Gombe and Kaduna states, including recent attacks in Kaduna state on Sunday, June 17^th and in Damaturu, Yobe state on Monday, June 18^th through 26^th, resulted in a significant loss of lives and population displacement in urban areas, increasing food assistance needs. The intensifying insecurity will hamper agricultural activities in the conflict prone areas limiting food production and household own food stocks. Similarly, a critical period for agricultural activities such as sowing and weeding were disrupted in mid June, reducing cropped area and increasing weeds. Reduced crop yields are likely during harvest. Conflict has also limited food flows in these areas, as traders evade such areas for fear of attacks. According to the FEWS NET enumerators report, in Maiduguri-Borno state, the epicenter of the civil conflict in the northeast, staple food prices such as millet, maize and sorghum are sold at NGN7800/100kg, NGN7300/100kg and NGN7000 /100kg, respectively in mid June.  These are 10-17 percent higher than on Dodoru market (Kebbi state) and Gujungu market (Jigawa state), areas of the northwest and northeast with less security challenges. Food prices are expected to increase further in the north due to the ongoing conflict,  typical lean season declines in food supply, the increased food demand during the Muslim fasting period in July-August, and high inflation (12.7% in May). This will reduce access to food by poor households in the area through September. This condition will be further exacerbated by the high costs of essential manufactured items due to the increased electricity tariffs in June, impacting negatively on household income and purchasing power.

The poor households across the seven states in the northwest and northeast, spanning from Borno state in the northeast to Kebbi state in the northwest are expected to remain Stessed (IPC Phase 2) though September due to a combination of typical lean season market dependence, high food prices, and civil insecurity. Most vulnerable poor households are within 4 livelihood zones, in Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, and Katsina states; which  include: NG01 - NW fishing and rice; NG02 - Rimasokoto irrigated rice, millet and vegetables; NG03 - NW millet, cowpeas, and groundnuts, and NG04 - NW millet and sesame. Similar vulnerable poor households in Borno, Yobe and Jigawa states are within 6 livelihood zones, namely; NG11 -Hadejia Valley mixed economy, NG12 - NE fishing dominant, NG13 - NE rice and chilli peppers, NG14 - NE fishing, maize, and cowpeas,  NG15 - NE wheat and chilli peppers, and NG17 - NE Yobe lowland rice. During this period they will rely more heavily on derived agricultural labor, sale of small ruminants such as goats and sheep, and loans from the rich to access food throughout the lean season. Other poor households will rely more heavily on migration to urban areas for unskilled jobs such as water hawking, costruction work and petty trading to earn income and access food. In this context most poor households will only be able to meet up their basic food needs, but not all essential non-food expenditures through September. However, if the civil conflict in Borno and Yobe states persists and expand, and large-scale displacement of poor households occurs, these households will not cultivate their farms, and will be unable to meet their basic food and non food needs during the lean season, resulting in possible Crisis condition (IPC Phase 3).

In response to the high food insecurity in the northwest and northeast some local and state government recently began subsized sales of cereals at half of their market value, increasing food access to the poor. The federal government and other states government in the north may begin to sell cereals at subsidized rates to the poor households in June-July to increase food access and temper high food insecurity in vulnerable areas.

In the South

The 2012 growing season is evolving favorably in the south as of mid June. Farmers are engaged in weeding and fertilizer applications. The normal onset of the season in most areas has led to improved food security situation in the south, where early maize and yam harvest began in most areas in mid June, maintaining stable maize and vegetable prices on most markets. This favorable condition will temper the ongoing lean season for poor and very poor households.

The FEWS NET enumerators report revealed that the price of gari, the major staple food in the south, is stable at NGN99/kg since end of May, on Bodija market (Oyo state), though prices of major food substitutes such as yam, cowpea and maize are still unseasonably high for this period of the year. To meet their basic food needs, poor households will depend on wage labor, remittances and substitution to less preferred foods (such as cocoyam) and wild foods which are available and accessible. The poor households will meet their basic food needs and they will not face acute food insecurity, through September. Seasonal flooding is likely to occur during the normal peak period of July-September, displacing population, and resulting in a loss of lives and destruction of properties. The displaced poor households will move to shelters and will recover after the main harvest when the water levels recede.

There will be increased expenditure for the urban poor households due to high transportation costs resulting from the fuel deregulation and the June hike in electricity rates as declared by the Nigeria Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC). The increased electricity tariffs will also lead to high costs of production (and therefore manufactured goods), and reduced labor demand. Poor households are likely to face declining incomes and will resort to less preferred foods such as cocoyam and local rice, through September.