Attacks increased in urban areas of the northeast and in neighboring countries

• The increasing threat the insurgency poses to lives and livelihoods persists. This, in addition to continued population displacements and limited market functioning, is contributing to increased food assistance needs as access to IDPs and local populations remains limited. Much of northeastern Nigeria will remain in at least Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity through to the main harvest in October 2015.

• The increase in Boko Haram-related conflict in neighboring countries and the attempts by insurgents to capture state capitals in the northeast of Nigeria increases the physical threat to not only resident populations, but also IDPs and refugees. Market activity in the northeast also continues to be greatly impacted by the conflict in the region.

• The recent joint FEWS NET/CILSS/National Government market assessment in northern Nigeria noted good market supply and favorable staple food prices on most markets visited. This, coupled with diverse farm and non-farm income sources and good household food stocks from the recent harvest, will contribute to ensuring households in most areas will continue to be able to meet their food and non-food needs and experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity.

Civil insecurity: Attacks in neighboring Chad, Niger and Cameroon are leading to widespread fears and increased insecurity for border populations and refugees. The Government of Niger has subsequently declared a state of emergency in early February for the Diffa region. Though the escalated conflict continues, the multinational military support from Chad, Niger, Cameroon and Nigeria has succeeded in recapturing some towns and villages from Boko Haram. Despite the successes by the military, attacks by the insurgents have intensified, with continued attempt so seize urban areas. Substantial population are moving from the affected areas for fear of being caught in the conflict. IDPs and vulnerable households who remained in conflict-affected areas continue to have limited availability and access to income and food.

Dry season activities in the northeast: Reports from FEWS NET informants in the northeast indicate that dry season activities are ongoing, though at significantly below-average levels. Although this is mainly attributed to fear of attack by the insurgents, limited water availability in rivers and streams near Lake Chad is also contributing to limited productivity. Consequently, harvests from dry season farming will also be significantly below average, as will seasonal incomes from agriculture wage labor as workers’ avoid open areas (such as farms) fearing exposure to the insecurity. The limited labor supply is reflected in labor wages. In southern Borno State, workers who do engage in wage labor earn NGN450/day this year against NGN250/day last year. In relatively safer urban areas of southern Borno, however, wages for construction labor are lower than last (NGN800/day against NGN1200/day) as labor supply increases with the number of IDPs moving to urban centers.

Markets and Trade: Preliminary findings from the recent joint FEWS NET/CILSS/National Government market assessment indicate a generally good market supply of food commodities across the country. The assessment did note limited carryover stocks from last year were available on markets. The level of trading activities has reduced significantly leading up to the national election (scheduled for late March) for fear of post electoral violence.

Food prices: Market prices for staples in surplus cereal producing areas in the north are either declining or remain stable, in line with the seasonal norm. In deficit producing areas in the south, though, some slight price increases have been observed. However, in the northeast, including out to Gombe State, activities of the insurgents have significantly affected trade flows and market functioning (Figure 1). High food prices relative to neighboring markets outside the conflict area continue. As an example, nominal retail prices of brown and white cowpeas are NGN176/kg and NGN167/kg in Maiduguri, while the same commodities are selling for NGN164/kg and NGN117/kg, respectively in Gombe city. They sell for NGN127/kg and NGN102/kg, respectively on Dawanau market in Kano.

The current situation is in line with the assumptions used to develop FEWS NET’s most likely scenario for January to June 2015. A full discussion of the scenario is available in the January to June 2015 Food Security Outlook.

Persistent attacks on market and transportation infrastructure in the northeast will continue to threaten market activity in the area. Livelihoods are also impacted by the conflict, with significantly below-average dry season harvests and seasonal incomes expected for households in areas highly impacted by conflict and for IDPs. Given the limited availability and access to food and income, southern and eastern Borno, southern Yobe and northern Adamawa will remain in at least Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity through to the main harvest in October, as affected households face difficulty meeting their basic food needs. In addition, households in northern Borno, central and northern Yobe, and central and southern Adamawa, relatively less affected by conflict but with increasing threat of attacks, still experience disrupted market activity and declining income opportunities, contributing to limited food access and availability. Many of these areas, currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2), will move to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) beginning in April.

Most households outside of the northeast are expected to continue benefitting from good harvest stocks, adequate market supplies and diverse income opportunities to access food regularly, and will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity through at least June 2015.