Nigeria

Presence country
Nigeria
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Food Security Outlook
October 2023 - May 2024
Food assistance needs remain elevated through harvest in northeast and northwest
  • The main season harvest is underway across the country, seasonally improving food availability and access for millions of households starting in October. However, the compounding impacts of increased levels of civilian-targeted violence and kidnappings amid prolonged dry spells during the growing season in the north, moderate flooding in riverine areas, and the escalating macroeconomic crisis have negatively impacted crop production. Cereal production in the surplus-producing areas of the north is expected to be lower than last year and below average. This will likely limit the extent of seasonal improvements in food access, driving atypically high staple food prices, and sustaining high food assistance needs in the northeast and northwest. 
  • In the northeast, in-fighting between insurgent groups, high levels of kidnapping, and increased crime continue to displace households to garrison towns and restrict access to cropland during cultivation. While most households are benefiting from the increased availability of harvests, plot sizes are small and most households will remain partially purchase-reliant to meet their food needs through the harvest period. However, minimal income-generating opportunities and deteriorated purchasing power limit financial access to food, resulting in consumption gaps and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. In inaccessible areas, particularly in Bama, Marte, Guzamala, and Abadam local government areas (LGAs), households will have limited mobility, poor access to functional markets, limited to no harvests, and depleted coping capacity and likely face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes through May 2024. 
  • Despite high food assistance needs, humanitarian presence remains limited in the northwest and north-center. Banditry and kidnapping for ransom have escalated in frequency from June to September, disrupting livelihoods,  limiting mobility, and driving population displacement in the worst-affected areas. While households who cultivated will benefit from temporary improvements in access to food with the seasonal harvests from October to December, most poor households were unable to cultivate amid poor income-earning opportunities. Disruptions to market functionality and high market prices have been exacerbated by the decline in cross-border trade activities with the Niger Republic. Conflict-affected households are experiencing food consumption gaps and are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through May 2024. A subset of the most conflict-affected households that were unable to cultivate are dependent on wild foods, bartering, and begging to access food and likely face Emergency (IPC Phase 4).
  • Economic conditions have deteriorated significantly in Nigeria. The value of the Nigerian Naira (NGN) is rapidly falling on the open market, hitting a record low of 1,200 NGN/USD at the parallel window in late October. Inflation reached 26.8 percent in September 2023 – the highest since 2005 – external reserves continue to drop, and domestic oil production remains well below the OPEC+ daily quota. The prices of imported and domestic goods remain atypically high due to high transportation costs associated with increased fuel prices following the removal of fuel subsidies. In September, in Maiduguri LGA, maize and millet prices were over 100 percent higher than they were in September 2022. As a result of these factors, households’ purchasing power has deteriorated, reducing access to food for millions of households who are purchase-reliant for food.
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Food Security
Key Message Update High food assistance needs in north amid macroeconomic crisis and below-average harvest Nigeria September 2023
Food Security Outlook Update Rainfall deficits likely to reduce harvest prospects in northeast and northcenter Nigeria August 2023
Key Message Update Macroeconomic crisis, conflict, and flooding expected to heighten food assistance needs Nigeria July 2023
Agroclimatology
Global Weather Hazards Flooding spreads into southeastern Africa, while parts of southern Africa remain abnormally dry Global February 17, 2023 - February 23, 2023
Global Weather Hazards Southern Africa experiences flooding, while abnormal dryness continues in Eastern Africa Global February 10, 2023 - February 16, 2023
Global Weather Hazards Southern Africa experiences flooding, while abnormal dryness continues in Eastern Africa Global February 10, 2023 - February 16, 2023
Markets & Trade
Price Bulletin Nigeria Price Bulletin Nigeria October 2023
Price Bulletin Nigeria Price Bulletin Nigeria September 2023
Price Bulletin Nigeria Price Bulletin Nigeria August 2023
Alerts / Special Reports
No reports available.
Food Security
Key Message Update High food assistance needs in north amid macroeconomic crisis and below-average harvest Nigeria September 2023
Food Security Outlook Update Rainfall deficits likely to reduce harvest prospects in northeast and northcenter Nigeria August 2023
Key Message Update Macroeconomic crisis, conflict, and flooding expected to heighten food assistance needs Nigeria July 2023
Agroclimatology
Global Weather Hazards Flooding spreads into southeastern Africa, while parts of southern Africa remain abnormally dry Global February 17, 2023 - February 23, 2023
Global Weather Hazards Southern Africa experiences flooding, while abnormal dryness continues in Eastern Africa Global February 10, 2023 - February 16, 2023
Global Weather Hazards Southern Africa experiences flooding, while abnormal dryness continues in Eastern Africa Global February 10, 2023 - February 16, 2023
Markets & Trade
Price Bulletin Nigeria Price Bulletin Nigeria October 2023
Price Bulletin Nigeria Price Bulletin Nigeria September 2023
Price Bulletin Nigeria Price Bulletin Nigeria August 2023
Alerts / Special Reports
No reports available.
Food Security Classification Data View all Nigeria classification data
Nigeria Acute Food Insecurity Classification (October 2023 - May 2024)

Current (October 2023) food security outcomes and forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (October 2023 - January 2024) and medium term (February 2024 - May 2024) periods.

Nigeria Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile October 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Nigeria Acute Food Insecurity Classification October 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Current Situation: October 2023 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: February 2024 - May 2024 (.png) (PNG) Current Situation: October 2023 (.kml) (KML) Near Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: February 2024 - May 2024 (.kml) (KML) Nigeria Acute Food Insecurity Classification (September 2023 - January 2024)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (September 2023) and medium term (October 2023 - January 2024) periods.

Nigeria Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile September 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Nigeria Acute Food Insecurity Classification September 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: September 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML) Nigeria Acute Food Insecurity Classification (January 2023 - May 2023)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (January 2023) and medium term (February 2023 - May 2023) periods.

Nigeria Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile January 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Nigeria Acute Food Insecurity Classification January 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: January 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: February 2023 - May 2023 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: January 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: February 2023 - May 2023 (.kml) (KML)
Seasonal Calendar Seasonal Calendar

The Seasonal Calendar shows the annual and cyclical patterns of key food and income sources in a country throughout the typical year.
Nigeria Seasonal Calendar
Production & Trade Flow Maps
FEWS NET captures the market networks for a product in a given country or region, including their catchments and trade flow patterns.
Cassava, Normal Year Cowpea, Normal Year Livestock, Normal Year Maize, Normal Year Millet, Normal Year Sorghum, Normal Year
Remote Sensing Imagery Remote Sensing Imagery

USGS-provided data and imagery supports FEWS NET's monitoring efforts of weather and climate throughout the world.

View all remotely sensed imagery
Livelihood Zone Resources Livelihood Zone Resources
Revised Livelihoods Zone Map and Descriptions for Nigeria, September 2008 Nigeria Livelihood Zone Summaries, November 2014 Preliminary Livelihoods Zoning: Northern Nigeria, March 2007 Nigeria Livelihood Zone Map, September 2018
Nigeria 2018 Livelihood Zones Map (.PNG)
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