Nigeria

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Food Security Outlook Update
August 2023
Rainfall deficits likely to reduce harvest prospects in northeast and northcenter
  • In northern Nigeria, conflict continues to drive population displacement, disrupt livelihood activities, and restrict market access during the peak-lean season, sustaining high food assistance needs in August. Financially motivated attacks, kidnap for ransom, and looting of food and resources continue at high levels across the north as food remains scarce ahead of the main season harvest. In the northeast, a high frequency of attacks on farmers during cultivation by non-state armed groups has limited access to farmland. In northwestern and northcentral states, herder/farmer conflict and militia attacks persist, heightening fear and limiting mobility. With limited off-farm options for income generation and low resilience at the peak of the lean season, poor households struggle to access food. Consequently, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist across northern states in August. In the highly inaccessible areas of Bama, Abadam, Guzamala, and Marte LGAs in northeast Nigeria, sustained conflict and poor market functionality have resulted in high household reliance on wild foods and bartering to access food. However, rainfall deficits have limited wild food availability, increasing food consumption gaps and sustaining Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes.
  • Macroeconomic conditions have deteriorated amid the peak of the lean season. Inflation reached 24.08 percent in July as the value of the Nigerian Naira (NGN) relative to the USD slipped to a record low of roughly 900 NGN/USD on the parallel market, resurging the gap between the official and unofficial rates. Meanwhile, record-high staple prices, high transportation costs, and low wages have reduced purchasing power, severely constraining access to food given the seasonally high purchase dependence for food. Further, the border closure with the Niger Republic has negatively impacted cross-border trade, limiting income generation for many traders, transporters, and shop-owners in the border regions. While the government has launched limited palliative distributions in some areas to cushion the impacts of the fuel subsidy removal and macroeconomic crisis, food assistance needs continue to increase, particularly across the north. 
  • Based on historical trends, El Niño years are not correlated with notable anomalies in rainfall performance in Nigeria. However, in July and August, significant rainfall deficits, including extended dry spells, have been observed in northcentral and northeastern Nigeria, typical surplus-producing areas. The poor rainfall performance has reportedly caused crop wilting of millet, groundnut, and sorghum in localized areas of the northeast, resulting in some replanting in late July. The below-average rainfall during critical crop development stages will likely negatively impact production prospects in parts of northern Nigeria. This will compound the already extensive impacts of conflict, displacement, annual flooding, and high fuel and input prices on cultivation in affected areas.
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Food Security
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Food Security Outlook Emergency (IPC Phase 4) expected in parts of northeast through 2023 harvest Nigeria June 2023 - January 2024
Key Message Update Amid high food assistance needs, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes likely in the northeast during lean season Nigeria May 2023
Agroclimatology
Global Weather Hazards Flooding spreads into southeastern Africa, while parts of southern Africa remain abnormally dry Global February 17, 2023 - February 23, 2023
Global Weather Hazards Southern Africa experiences flooding, while abnormal dryness continues in Eastern Africa Global February 10, 2023 - February 16, 2023
Global Weather Hazards Southern Africa experiences flooding, while abnormal dryness continues in Eastern Africa Global February 10, 2023 - February 16, 2023
Markets & Trade
Price Bulletin Nigeria Price Bulletin Nigeria August 2023
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Alerts / Special Reports
No reports available.
Food Security
Key Message Update Macroeconomic crisis, conflict, and flooding expected to heighten food assistance needs Nigeria July 2023
Food Security Outlook Emergency (IPC Phase 4) expected in parts of northeast through 2023 harvest Nigeria June 2023 - January 2024
Key Message Update Amid high food assistance needs, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes likely in the northeast during lean season Nigeria May 2023
Agroclimatology
Global Weather Hazards Flooding spreads into southeastern Africa, while parts of southern Africa remain abnormally dry Global February 17, 2023 - February 23, 2023
Global Weather Hazards Southern Africa experiences flooding, while abnormal dryness continues in Eastern Africa Global February 10, 2023 - February 16, 2023
Global Weather Hazards Southern Africa experiences flooding, while abnormal dryness continues in Eastern Africa Global February 10, 2023 - February 16, 2023
Markets & Trade
Price Bulletin Nigeria Price Bulletin Nigeria August 2023
Price Bulletin Nigeria Price Bulletin Nigeria July 2023
Price Bulletin Nigeria Price Bulletin Nigeria June 2023
Alerts / Special Reports
No reports available.
Food Security Classification Data View all Nigeria classification data
Nigeria Acute Food Insecurity Classification (August 2023 - January 2024)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (August 2023 - September 2023) and medium term (October 2023 - January 2024) periods.

Nigeria Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile August 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Nigeria Acute Food Insecurity Classification August 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: August 2023 - September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: August 2023 - September 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML) Nigeria Acute Food Insecurity Classification (July 2023 - January 2024)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (July 2023 - September 2023) and medium term (October 2023 - January 2024) periods.

Nigeria Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile July 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Nigeria Acute Food Insecurity Classification July 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: July 2023 - September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: July 2023 - September 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML) Nigeria Acute Food Insecurity Classification (June 2023 - January 2024)

Current (June 2023) food security outcomes and forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (June 2023 - September 2023) and medium term (October 2023 - January 2024) periods.

Nigeria Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile June 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Nigeria Acute Food Insecurity Classification June 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Current Situation: June 2023 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: June 2023 - September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Current Situation: June 2023 (.kml) (KML) Near Term Projection: June 2023 - September 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML)
Seasonal Calendar Seasonal Calendar

The Seasonal Calendar shows the annual and cyclical patterns of key food and income sources in a country throughout the typical year.
Nigeria Seasonal Calendar
Production & Trade Flow Maps
FEWS NET captures the market networks for a product in a given country or region, including their catchments and trade flow patterns.
Cassava, Normal Year Cowpea, Normal Year Livestock, Normal Year Maize, Normal Year Millet, Normal Year Sorghum, Normal Year
Remote Sensing Imagery Remote Sensing Imagery

USGS-provided data and imagery supports FEWS NET's monitoring efforts of weather and climate throughout the world.

View all remotely sensed imagery
Livelihood Zone Resources Livelihood Zone Resources
Revised Livelihoods Zone Map and Descriptions for Nigeria, September 2008 Nigeria Livelihood Zone Summaries, November 2014 Preliminary Livelihoods Zoning: Northern Nigeria, March 2007 Nigeria Livelihood Zone Map, September 2018
Nigeria 2018 Livelihood Zones Map (.PNG)
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