High prices and below-average purchasing power limit access to food despite improved conditions

The rainfall conditions in Dosso, Maradi, and Zinder have generally been favorable for crop development and the early maturity of millet and cowpea crops, which will increase the availability of green harvests and improve household access to food. Conversely, due to insecurity and delays in crop development, abandoned fields have been observed in Tillabéry, Tahoua, Diffa, and Maradi. However, based on seasonal forecasts, average to above-average rainfall is expected between September and November. These rainfall amounts will be favorable for mid to late-season crops to reach full maturity despite being planted late in the season. 

Heavy rainfall from August to September caused flooding across all regions, affecting 217,684 people and resulting in 145 deaths, the loss of livestock, and the destruction of approximately 23,000 houses, mainly in Maradi, Zinder, Diffa, Dosso, and Tillabéry.  

In pastoral areas, livestock body conditions and milk production has improved due to increased grazing and water availability. In Tahoua and Agadez, the pastoral lean season typically ends in July/August but has been extended to September due to high winds and flooding. This extension has resulted in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes among poor households in these areas.

As traders begin to release larger quantities of newly harvested crops, cereal market supplies are improving in comparison to the past few months. This release of supplies has been prompted by favorable prospects for the agricultural season. Sub-regional cereal imports continue, thanks to the continued depreciation of the Nigerian naira and the lifting of border closures, which are helping to supply markets. This improvement in market conditions has not yet significantly affected food price trends, which are still above last year's levels and the five-year average for the same period.

Across most of the country poor households are Stressed (IPC Phase 3) due to rising prices and flooding, resulting in limited access to food and increased use of livelihood coping strategies. Additionally, areas affected by conflict are experiencing a  disruption in agricultural and pastoral activities that is resulting in a decline in income-earning opportunities for households. Insecurity is also limiting household access to humanitarian assistance, except in the regions of Diffa and southern Maradi regioins where the reinforced presence of security forces is allowing access. Crisis food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) is expected to continue in the Tillabéry and Tahoua regions, and while Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will persist in the Diffa region. Stressed(IPC Phase 2! )will continue in the Diffa region and southwest Maradi.