Improvement of pastoral conditions with localized impacts from the long lean season

Given the overall generally favorable rainfall, millet and cowpea crops are at maturation stages earlier than average, meaning improved food availabilities and globally Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity. However, delays in the phenological development of plants and parasitical attacks have been observed in the Maradi region and certain pockets of the Zinder and Tahoua regions given the poor temporal-spatial distribution of rainfall.

Pastoral conditions and watering holes in pastoral areas are markedly improved with the rehabilitation of livestock body conditions and milk production except in certain pockets of the pastoral zone. Violent winds in the pastoral zone of Tahoua and floods in the pastoral zone of Agadez prevented the emergence of pasture and prolonged the pastoral lean season until the end of September instead of July/August normally, causing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) conditions for poor households.

Regional cereal importations favored by the Nigerian Naira’s depreciation continue to assure regular market supply. However, price increases have been recorded between July and August for millet, 19 percent in Abalak, 23 percent in Zinder, and 53 percent in Bakin Birdji, following strong demands linked to the return of migrants and herders and the retention of stocks by certain traders.  Compared to the five-year average, prices have remained globally stable.

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are still currently observed in the Diffa Region, which is affected by the Boko Haram conflict. These outcomes will persist until at least January 2017 given the below-average harvests and income sources and the increased cereal prices that are above the five-year average by more than 20 percent and are reducing food access.

For more detailed analysis, see the Food Security Outlook for June 2016 to January 2017.