The lean season begins early in the pastoral zone and conflict persists in Diffa

• Above-average cereal production and ongoing off-season harvests favor good food availability, which assures satisfactory food consumption for the majority of agricultural households. The seasonal household revenues consist mainly of off-season crop sales, which bolster normal food access. This will maintain the majority of households in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity outcomes until at least September 2016.

• The cereal supply is stable or increasing in certain large markets compared to previous months and seasonal tendencies given the recent depreciation of the Nigerian naira that is encouraging trade of staple foodstuffs from Nigeria towards Niger. In the majority of markets, prices are slightly to significantly below average and below February prices.

• Acute food insecurity outcomes of Stress (IPC Phase 2), observed in pastoral zones, will persist until July 2016 due to reduced fodder production, which places additional pressure on pastoralists’ revenues to meet their essential needs. However, their situation will evolve into Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes in August following the rainy season’s regeneration of pasturelands and replenishing of watering holes.

• The acute food insecurity outcomes of Stress (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) still prevail in the Diffa Region and will persist until at least September 2016, particularly in the areas surrounding Lake Chad and the Komadougou River, because of effects from the Boko Haram conflict. These impacts continue to cause new displacements and disruptions to food and revenue sources as well as to markets. 

For more detailed analysis, see the Food Security Outlook for February – September 2016.