Persistent conflict is sustaining acute food insecurity in Niger

Download Report

In October 2024, FEWS NET estimated that Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of acute food insecurity would be observed between February and May 2025 in parts of the Tillabéry, Northwestern Tahoua, Diffa, and Southwestern Maradi regions due to ongoing conflict and insecurity, which continue to disrupt livelihood activities and markets. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes were anticipated during the same period in agricultural, agropastoral, and pastoral areas not affected by conflict and insecurity, where poor households will face depletion of cereal and fodder stocks and reduced purchasing power due to rising food prices. FEWS NET estimated that 2.0 to 2.49 million people would be in need of food assistance between February and May 2025. These populations will mainly consist of poor and very poor households in conflict-affected areas, internally displaced persons (IDPs), and flood victims.
Between July and December 2025, food consumption deficits will persist among poor households in insecure areas and IDP households due to the continued disruption of typical income and food sources and rising market prices driven by insecurity. In areas unaffected by conflict, poor households will also face food consumption deficits during the lean season (July–September 2025) as their food stocks are depleted and their purchasing power declines due to reduced job and income-earning opportunities driven by an oversupply of labor. However, starting in October 2025, new cereal and crop harvests and related economic opportunities will improve food consumption and incomes for most households in agricultural, agropastoral, and pastoral areas not affected by conflict or insecurity.
The security situation remains concerning, with ongoing violent incidents in the regions of Tillabéry, Diffa, Tahoua, and Maradi, and increasingly in Dosso. According to ACLED data, the total number of security incidents recorded between January and June 2025 is stable compared to the same period in 2024. However, the attacks are deadlier, with a 7 percent increase in fatalities. Tillabéry is the most affected region, accounting for 59 percent of recorded security incidents and 67 percent of deaths nationwide. Additionally, the conflict has displaced 459,585 people, 48 percent of whom are in Tillabéry, due to its proximity to terrorist bases in Mali and Burkina Faso. The conflict has led to abandoned farmland and market disruptions. Households therefore face reduced agricultural production, increased food prices, and declines in income and purchasing power, resulting in food consumption deficits.
The market situation is characterized by sufficient supply for consumer demand due to good cereal harvests last year. This cereal supply is supported by a government export ban, except for exports to Burkina Faso and Mali. Demand is lower than last year at the same time due to the good previous harvest, which allows large producers to pay poor households for agricultural labor in-kind. As a result, food prices have declined compared to last year by 22 percent for millet, 26 percent for sorghum, 28 percent for maize, and 14 percent for local rice. However, prices remain at five-year average levels, except local rice, which is 15 percent above the five-year average (SIMA). The government also temporarily banned livestock exports during the Tabaski festival in June. Prices for sheep and cattle remained stable year-over-year and compared to the five-year average, but goat prices fell 14 percent compared to June 2024 and 50 percent below the five-year average.
The agricultural and pastoral production season is now fully underway across the country. Since June 2025, the country has benefited from good rainfall coverage and regularity, enabling 97 percent of farmland to be sown by July 20, 2025, compared to 98 percent at the same time last year. Despite a slightly delayed start and prolonged dry spells in southwestern areas, average to above-average rainfall is forecast from August to October 2025. In pastoral zones, there has been improved pasture availability (herbaceous and woody) and improved water point replenishment, which facilitates livestock watering and is improving livestock body conditions.
The food insecurity response plan has been developed, but both the number of beneficiaries and the quantity of food assistance distributed are low. According to UNOCHA, as of July 15, 2025, only 14 percent of the 2025 Humanitarian Response Plan for Niger has been funded, well below the five-year average of about 60 percent due to difficulties in financing humanitarian programs since the beginning of 2025. This historic low funding level, combined with terrorist attacks on roads and security measures requiring military escorts for humanitarian workers in affected areas, has led to reduced coverage and fewer beneficiaries receiving assistance.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Niger Key Message Update July 2025: Persistent conflict is sustaining acute food insecurity in Niger, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.