Conflict and flooding are driving deteriorating acute food insecurity

Download Report

Worsening acute food insecurity will likely continue through September, before improving seasonally through January 2026 due to improved food availability and access, as well as increased income from agricultural harvests. Food access is currently at its lowest level due to a combination of several factors, primarily conflict and climatic events (particularly flooding); these combined effects have led to population displacement, losses in agricultural and pastoral production, and disruptions in market functioning and economic opportunities. The areas most affected by this combination of adverse factors are in the regions of Tillabéry, Diffa, Maradi, Tahoua, and are now extending into the Dosso Region.
Terrorist group activity persists, with an increasing number of attacks now also recorded in the Dosso Region, in addition to the previously known hotspots in Tillabéry, Diffa, Tahoua, and Maradi. Dosso has recorded mortality rates estimated at 2 percent in 2024 and 12 percent in 2025, with victims representing 6 percent and 18 percent of all recorded victims in 2024 and 2025, respectively (ACLED). As of July 2025, the number of people displaced due to terrorist activities remained stable compared to the previous month at 459,585 people, but is lower than the 507,000 people estimated during the same period in 2024.
Following heavy rainfall, as of August 21, the recorded impacts of flooding include 79,132 people affected, 47 deaths, and the loss of 272 livestock and 2,051 hectares of crops across 420 villages and neighborhoods, according to the General Directorate of Civil Protection. Seasonal climate forecasts, which predict average to above-average cumulative rainfall, indicate a high risk of flooding in the southern and southwestern areas of the country. However, the rains have supported the start and progress of the agricultural and pastoral seasons in 99 percent of the country’s farming villages as of July 31 (Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Statistics Directorate). According to the directorate, 149 villages (mostly in Tillabéry and Diffa) have not begun planting, mainly due to insecurity that has led to population displacement and the abandonment of fields. Due to regular average rainfall, millet and sorghum crops are developing well, ranging from advanced germination to heading stages, with most in the tillering and stem elongation stages. Weather conditions are also favorable for cash crops, pasture, and water source replenishment, all of which are showing good development and in turn facilitating livestock feeding and watering. Livestock body conditions have significantly improved.
Market supply levels are average, maintained through merchant stock releases and imported goods. Additionally, the government, through the Office of Agricultural Products of Niger (OPVN) and the Food Crisis Unit (CCA), has launched subsidized sales for 60,000 tons of cereals (millet, sorghum, maize, and rice). However, due to insecurity, some markets in Tillabéry, Diffa, Maradi, Tahoua, and Dosso are closed or poorly supplied. In functioning markets, the average price per kilogram (kg) of millet, sorghum, maize, and imported rice in July was 25 percent to 34 percent lower than in July last year, but similar to the five-year averages.
Despite a reduction in the target population for humanitarian food assistance – from 1.1 million people to 347,525 people during the lean season due to funding constraints – planned food assistance has not fully reached some beneficiaries. The implementation of the food insecurity response plan faces challenges such as reduced funding, persistent insecurity in targeted areas, and high distribution costs due to imposed security measures. At the same time, OPVN and CCA launched a targeted free distribution of 14,300 tons of cereals (millet, sorghum, maize) to 143,000 households, providing 100 kg per household in August.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Niger Key Message Update August 2025: Conflict and flooding are driving deteriorating acute food insecurity, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.