Excessive rainfall benefits agricultural production but causes flooding

• Due to ongoing conflict and insecurity, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected from October 2024 to May 2025 in Tillabéry and Diffa, as well as in the northwest of Tahoua and southwest of Maradi. Indeed, the security crisis is causing the forced displacement of populations, leading to the loss of their food sources and livelihoods. Furthermore, in these regions, displaced poor households affected by the floods will face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, although they make up less than 15 percent of the population. 
• FEWS NET estimates that 2.0 to 2.49 million people will need food assistance with needs peaking between February and May 2025. The most vulnerable population consists of poor and very poor households in areas of insecurity, displaced persons, and flood victims.
• Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected in agricultural, agropastoral, and pastoral areas between October 2024 and January 2025. New harvests are expected to improve household access to food and income in agricultural and agropastoral areas. Additionally, the availability of pastures and water in pastoral areas is expected to be good, improving the body conditions, market value, and milk production of livestock, as well as food consumption and household incomes. 

• Widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected between February and May 2025 in agricultural and agropastoral areas. Due to depleted stocks and very high food prices, poor households are expected to rely on markets for their food, which will reduce their purchasing power and limit their food expenditures. Additionally, due to the decrease in pastoral resources and limited access to pastures in insecure areas, livestock prices are expected to drop in pastoral areas, limiting the purchasing power of pastoral households.

  The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 20, 2024.

Conflicts, the primary factor driving food insecurity in Niger, are leading to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in the regions of Tillabéry, Tahoua, Diffa, and Maradi. These outcomes will persist from October 2024 until May 2025 and some categories of very poor households will even be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). The conflicts have caused population displacement, abandonment of arable land, and disruptions in supply and market operations. Households are facing a decline in agricultural production, rising food prices, low or non-existent incomes, and limited livelihoods due to insecurity, leading to food consumption deficits. 

Above-average, well-distributed rainfall across the country has been highly favorable for production of cereal crops, cash crops, and pastures. However, the excessive rainfall has caused flooding, which has significantly impacted populations and their assets and equipment, including 25,000 livestock lost and approximately 24,000 hectares of crops damaged. The victims of the flooding are estimated to be 1.5 million people, and the negative impacts are significant and lasting on the livelihoods of the affected populations (Figure 1). 

Humanitarian access is hindered by security incidents and ongoing measures to mitigate the effects of insecurity. In the Diffa and Maradi regions, households were beneficiaries of food aid, which reached more than 30 percent of the population up to April 2024. However, security measures restricting the movement of people in these areas, including humanitarian actors, are preventing the delivery of food aid to all affected regions.

In agricultural and agropastoral areas, household food stocks are being replenished due to the successful results of an agricultural season that benefited from favorable rainfall conditions. Cereal crops, a large portion of which has already been harvested, provide food for households and also offer income opportunities through the sale of crops and agricultural labor. The food insecurity outcomes in these areas will be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) between October 2024 and January 2025. However, between February and May 2025, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected due to the seasonal decline in food availability from harvests and the purchasing power of households. 

In most pastoral areas, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected. The favorable rainfall resulted in an improvement in the body conditions, market value, and milk production of livestock from October 2024 to January 2025. Thus, food and income from milk production and livestock sales should be sufficient to allow most households to meet their basic food needs. However, forage stocks and water points are expected to diminish in line with seasonal trends between February and May 2025 in most of the pastoral areas, and pastoral resources in conflict zones will be inaccessible, leading to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity. 

The increasing power of violent extremist organizations in Mali has spread to neighboring countries in the Liptako-Gourma region since 2015. The two main extremist groups involved in the attacks in Niger, particularly in the Tillabéry and Tahoua regions, are the Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State of the Sahel Province (IS Sahel). Boko Haram, which has transformed into the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), is the main perpetrator of attacks in the Diffa region. Organized bandits from the northwestern states of Nigeria are the main threat in the Maradi region. The incursions and attacks by these armed groups have led to massive population displacements, abandonment of farmlands, and livestock losses, severely impacting household livelihoods. Furthermore, these attacks have affected market operations and access, disrupting internal and cross-border food product flows. However, the attacks in these regions vary according to the season, with a decrease during the rainy season due to floods that limit the movements of these armed groups. 

Poor households in rural areas depend on livestock and agricultural work as a source of income and food. Cereal production is dominant in agricultural and agropastoral livelihood zones, primarily millet and sorghum. The period from October to December coincides with the harvest season, during which household stocks are replenished and typically last for about four to six months. Food prices should remain stable, and households should be able to rely less on markets as a food source. Starting in January, households will have access to vegetable products, which will last until May. In pastoral areas, the situation is expected to improve from October due to the availability of pastures, which will help increase the market value of livestock. Pastoral households rely on livestock sales as a source of income and on markets for their food. Niger also depends on the import of some grains, especially rice. 

Since July, the cumulative effects of the above-average seasonal rains have led to flooding throughout the country, causing loss of livestock, destruction of infrastructure, equipment (houses, roads, and health facilities), and agricultural land, and hindering access to livelihood activities, food, health and nutrition services, and markets. The most affected areas are the regions of Maradi, Zinder, and Tahoua. 

The macroeconomic context: Niger's economic growth resumed in 2022 after the economic shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2021. However, economic sanctions in 2023 negatively impacted the macroeconomic situation resulting from the decline in GDP to 1.4 percent. Niger experienced a moderate increase in the annual average inflation rate to 3.7 percent in 2023 compared to 2022. However, the inflation rate was below 3 percent during the first half of 2023, rising from July to reach a peak of 15 percent in June 2024, following the reduction in cross-border flows due to the closure of the border with Benin, before decreasing to 10 percent from August 2024. 

Learn more 

The following links provide additional information: 

• Latest Food Security Outlook June 2024 - January 2025
• Latest Key Messages Update September 2024
• Overview of FEWS NET's scenario development methodology 
• FEWS NET's approach to estimating the population in need 
• Overview of IPC and IPC-compatible analysis
• FEWS NET's approach to analyzing humanitarian food aid

Key hazards 

Conflict and insecurity: 

Niger continues to face ongoing conflicts and persistent civil insecurity in the regions of Tillabéry, Diffa, Tahoua, and Maradi, where terrorist attacks result in loss of life and productive assets and disrupt the functioning of markets and livelihood activities. According to ACLED data, 349 security incidents related to terrorist group activities were recorded in Niger from January to September 2024, compared to 332 cases during the same period in 2023, representing a 5 percent increase (Figure 3). The increase in terrorist attacks during this period resulted in an estimated 1,466 victims, representing a 114 percent increase compared to 2023. The impacts of this security crisis have extended beyond the four regions, increasingly affecting the Dosso region. In addition to the loss of lives, terrorist attacks force populations to abandon their home areas and livelihood activities. Indeed, the population displacement situation updated in September 2024 by the UNHCR indicates a total of 970,653 people in forced displacement, including 507,438 internally displaced persons. These internal displacements of populations lead to the abandonment of cultivated fields, which have been observed in 63 agricultural villages in the Tillabéry region. In 2023, abandoned fields were recorded in 41 agricultural villages, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock. The Tillabéry region is the most affected, accounting for 51 percent of security incident cases, 69 percent of deaths, and 44 percent of internally displaced persons due to terrorist attacks.

Flooding: 

All regions of the country have experienced heavy and exceptional rains, which caused floods resulting in displaced persons, as well as losses of lives, infrastructure, and equipment. The rainy season was characterized by rainfall in July, August, and September 2024 that significantly exceeded the seasonal totals of 2023 and the average of previous years. Several localities received annual rainfall totals in just one to three days, with recorded rainfall estimated at 300 millimeters. These exceptional rains have significant impacts on populations and their assets, including 1.5 million displaced persons who abandoned their homes due to damage, 373 deaths, approximately 25,000 livestock lost, about 24,000 hectares of crops damaged, and 26 tons of food lost. The affected population is spread across all regions of the country, with the highest proportions of people affected recorded in the regions of Maradi, Zinder, and Tahoua, according to the Ministry of Humanitarian Action and Disaster Management.

Sociopolitical and macroeconomic situation: 

Despite the lifting of sanctions since February 2024, sociopolitical tension persists due to the continued closure of the border with Benin. The sociopolitical situation, marked by heavy sanctions imposed on Niger by the subregional and international community following the regime change on July 26, 2023, continues to have effects on the country's macroeconomic and sociopolitical situation. The direct impacts include a slowdown in trade flows, particularly due to the combined effects of the unfavorable monetary and economic situation in Nigeria and the ban on cereal exports imposed by Nigerian authorities. This unfavorable macroeconomic condition is illustrated by a high overall inflation rate of 10 percent in August 2024, driven by 15 percent food inflation, following a slight improvement compared to the rate in June 2024 (Figure 4).

Agricultural production: 

Given the good spatiotemporal distribution of exceptionally high rainfall, the absence of plant disease outbreaks, and government support for agricultural inputs, a normal end to the season and average to good harvests are likely,. The rainy season generally started on time. Through free seed distribution operations and subsidized fertilizer prices, producers, including poor households, were able to access production inputs on time. The rainfall regime has also been very favorable for meeting water requirements and ensuring good development of crops, which have been affected by pest attacks, but only of limited scale. The abandonment of fields and flooding of crops caused reductions in agricultural production, but these are localized. However, the expected good yields from crops, complemented by the increase in cultivated areas beyond the agricultural frontier of the country due to the significant rains recorded, suggest a good agricultural production for cereals and cash crops, as evidenced by the forecast of 5.9 million metric tons according to the Directorate of Agricultural Statistics (Figure 5). 

Livestock production: 

The intensity and regularity of rainfall have also been very favorable in the pastoral zone, allowing for the rehabilitation of pastoral conditions after an earlier and longer-than-usual lean season. The rains recorded in the pastoral zone were late, but from July to September they became significant and well-distributed, both temporally and spatially, resulting in positive growth of grass cover, good filling of water points, and improved livestock body conditions and milk production. However, the recovery of body conditions and milk production has been gradual and slow due to the long lean season experienced by the herds. Although conflict-affected areas in Tillabéry, Tahoua, Diffa, and Maradi are well-supplied with pastoral resources, these grazing zones are inaccessible to animals due to insecurity.

Sources of off-own-farm income: 

Given the favorable seasonal conditions and the strong demand for harvest labor, off-own-farm income sources come from agricultural labor opportunities that allow households to earn average income.

Income from the sale of straw/agricultural residues for animal feed is moderate, following an increase of 15 to 30 percent in pastoral zones until June 2024 due to the delayed onset of rains and, especially, the high demand. Livestock sales are the main source of income for pastoral households, but prices are still about 18 percent lower than their five-year average. This results in livestock-to-cereal terms of trade being 27 percent lower than the average (Figure 6).

Revenue from seasonal labor migration has also significantly decreased due to the economic issues in the country's urban centers and in host countries. Nigeria is facing economic and monetary issues, while port activities in Benin, which are the main sources of seasonal employment opportunities, have declined due to the ongoing border closure. 

Market supply:

Market supplies are at a level lower than normal, but the ongoing harvests are improving local supply in agricultural and agropastoral areas. Supply shortages are still observed in pastoral areas, where markets are not yet supplied with products from the new harvests, particularly due to the deterioration of roads following the floods. The most significant supply shortages are observed in markets located in conflict zones. In addition to the previously mentioned internal factors, these markets are affected by the combined effects of the border closure with Benin, the ban on cereal exports in Nigeria, and insecurity impacting both cross-border and internal flows of consumer goods (Figure 7). 

Food prices are still on the rise, but thanks to the ongoing harvests, prices in high-production agricultural areas are at lower levels compared to previous months and the same period last year. However, prices are 30 to 50 percent higher than the five-year average for the same period in markets located in areas affected by conflict and insecurity (Figure 8). 

Household purchasing power: 

In agricultural and agropastoral areas, due to the ongoing harvests of cereals and cash crops, most households have access to food through their own production. Their purchasing power for non-food products comes from seasonal income earned from harvest labor and the sale of cash crops, allowing them to make non-food expenditures. In conflict-affected areas, displaced people rely on markets for their food supply, while their agricultural labor is poorly paid due to competition with local poor households. Additionally, their host areas have markets that are insufficiently supplied and display the highest prices in the country, with levels twice as high as the five-year average, leading to low purchasing power. In pastoral areas, the prices of food products are significantly higher than the five-year average, and terms of trade are unfavorable, leading to a sharp reduction in the quantities of goods that can be purchased with the income from livestock sales. 

Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that information on food assistance is highly variable across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance); see report Annex. In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. Other types of assistance (e.g., livelihoods or nutrition assistance; social safety net programs) are incorporated elsewhere in FEWS NET’s broader analysis, as applicable.

The government of Niger, in partnership with humanitarian actors, has developed a National Response Plan for household food insecurity to assist 3 million people. In June 2024, the government's food insecurity response plan, as outlined by the Food Crisis Cell, implemented a targeted free distribution operation of 14,300 tons of cereals to benefit 143,000 households. The government also conducted two phases of moderate-price cereal sales, with 15,900 metric tons per phase, in all 266 municipalities across the country. An emergency plan was developed following the floods, and its implementation in September 2024 allowed for the distribution of 100 kg of cereals per affected household, reaching approximately 130,000 people, covering 10 percent of those impacted. However, according to information from partners, the food assistance available from humanitarian organizations is insufficient to meet needs due to funding challenges. Moreover, the government's financial constraints and the restrictions on movement for humanitarian organizations in insecure areas without military escorts are limiting the implementation of these plans. 

Based on the analysis of food security conditions, FEWS NET then assesses the extent to which households are able to meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change; FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, with a focus on assessing if these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity rather than other non-food-related factors. Ultimately, FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.

In the areas of Tillabéry, North Tahoua, Diffa, and South Maradi affected by conflict and civil insecurity: 

Poor households and displaced households do not have sufficient resources and depend on the markets to meet their food needs. In addition, market prices are very high, and the opportunities to earn sufficient income to strengthen purchasing power are limited. The food consumed in these households covers less than 20 percent of their energy needs. As a result, these households are resorting to negative coping strategies, including reducing food rations or prioritizing young children during meals. They are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity. Displaced households and flood victims (representing no more than 10 to 15 percent) are affected by the combined impacts of insecurity and flooding, leading to losses in agricultural production and purchasing power. Their food consumption is poor in both quantity and quality, consisting of small amounts of cereals acquired through donations and wild leaves. These households face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes.

In the rest of the agricultural and agropastoral areas: 

Household stocks are being replenished due to the new harvests, which are estimated to be average to above average, providing the main sources of food and offering income opportunities for poor households. Thus, the food consumed by the majority of households comes from their own agricultural production, covering their consumption needs without resorting to negative coping strategies. They are in Minimal (IPC Phase 1). However, in these areas, there is a category of poor households, representing 10 to 15 percent of the population, who are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). After repayment of debts incurred to cope with food deficits, their available resources are insufficient to cover non-food expenditures. There are also poor and flood-affected households in these areas, who, in addition to coping with the impact of the floods on their crops and livelihoods, must rely on market purchases for food despite high food prices and decrease in seasonal agricultural income. As a result, access to consumer goods is significantly limited for these households, and they face both food and livelihood protection deficits. While these households face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, their proportion of the overall population does not exceed 5 to 9 percent. According to the malnutrition admission tracking data published by the Technical Nutrition Group, there were 319,830 admissions to the Intensive Nutritional Recovery Centers (CRENI) and the Outpatient Nutritional Recovery Centers for Severe Cases (CRENAS) in August 2024, representing 73 percent of the targeted individuals, compared to 302,055 cases in 2023, an increase of 6 percent. This deterioration in the nutritional situation is likely due to the floods, as the regions of Maradi and Zinder, which account for 58 percent of severe malnutrition admissions, are also the most affected by the floods. 

In pastoral areas: 

The pastures and water points for livestock are sufficiently available, ensuring access to pastoral resources, with animals in good condition and capable of producing milk for both consumption and sales. Households thus have sufficient access to food and income to meet their food consumption needs. In pastoral areas not affected by insecurity, households are in Minimal (IPC Phase 1). In the pastoral zones affected by insecurity, grazing areas remain inaccessible for livestock, which are making atypical movements towards safer areas with available pastoral resources.

The next step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to develop evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security conditions. This includes hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will affect the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions on factors that are expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions underpin the “most likely” scenario. The sequence of making assumptions is important; primary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to weather) must be developed before secondary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to crop or livestock production). Key assumptions that underpin this analysis, and the key sources of evidence used to develop the assumptions, are listed below.

National assumptions 

Conflicts:

• Attacks by armed terrorist groups are likely to increase beyond the current high levels from January to May 2025, but these attacks will remain well below the peaks observed from 2019 to 2020. These conflicts and security issues will be observed in the regions of Tillabéry, Tahoua, Diffa, and Maradi, where displacement of people will continue according to the frequency and intensity of the actions of terrorist groups. 

Agroclimatic:

• According to updates from the AGRHYMET Regional Center of CILSS and NOAA, the rains are expected to stop on time or slightly later than usual. This will allow late sowings, long-cycle crops, and forage plants to complete their vegetative development under favorable water conditions. 
• Due to heavy rainfall and ensuing floods, poor households will continue to suffer negative impacts on their food conditions. This is particularly the case for the displaced populations in the regions of Maradi, Zinder, Tahoua, and Tillabéry. 

 Agricultural production: 

• The beneficial effects of spatiotemporally well-distributed heavy rainfall and favorable moisture conditions will result in good agricultural yields and overall agricultural production that will be higher than last year and at least equal to the five-year average. However, localized declines will be recorded for valley crops such as rice and maize. 

Off-season agricultural production:

• The generally good rainfall will result in a satisfactory recharge of the groundwater and filling of watercourses, leading to sufficient water availability for the off-season agricultural campaign, with work set to begin in October. This suggests a good vegetable production outlook and positive prospects for flood-recession crops. 

Pastoral situation:

• The good rainfall in the pastoral zone, which resulted in a strong biomass production and favorable levels of filling for both temporary and permanent water points, will ensure the availability of pastures and water for animal watering for at least six months, compared to the typical four-month period.

Sociopolitical and economic environment:

• Sociopolitical tensions will persist between Niger and Benin and the border will remain closed until May 2025. These tensions will continue to disrupt trade relations, particularly the imports of foodstuffs and goods. Transactions will continue through the port of Lomé. 
• According to African Development Bank estimates, economic growth is expected to reach 10.4 percent in 2024 and then 7.4 percent in 2025. Inflation is expected to remain above 10 percent until the end of 2024 and to be stable at this level. Additionally, economic prospects will continue to be constrained by climate factors, global oil prices, insecurity, and the potential impacts of the country and its Sahelian allies leaving ECOWAS. 

Markets and prices:

• The continued closure of the border with Benin will result in the ongoing halt of cross-border trade between Niger and Benin, particularly the import of maize, fruits, and vegetables. However, the expected good agricultural production will support an improvement in supplies, strengthening local offerings. 
• Prices will remain high compared to last year and the average due to the reduced supply caused by disruptions in cross-border flows. Demand will remain high as various market players, including traders and institutions, will want to replenish depleted stocks.
• The supply of animals will resume, except in markets located in conflict areas, and local demand will be at least moderate. However, the continued depreciation of the Naira will reduce Niger's interest in livestock exports to Nigeria, thereby decreasing export demand.

Subnational assumptions for the Tillabéry and Tahoua regions

• In the regions of Tillabéry and Tahoua, the number of attacks by the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (EIGS) and the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) is expected to continue until May 2025, including in the Dosso region, which borders Benin. The continued militant attacks in the regions of Tillabéry and Tahoua are expected to lead to population displacement. 

Subnational assumptions for the Diffa region

• In the Diffa region, the number of terrorist attacks is expected to increase slightly above current low levels until May 2025, with sporadic attacks by Jamaatu Ahli is-Sunnah lid-Dawati wal-Jihad (JAS) and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in the Diffa and Bosso departments. The decrease in diplomatic tensions between Niger and Nigeria is expected to strengthen military cooperation and coordination of joint security operations that already exist, thus likely limiting the ability of JAS and ISWAP to expand and strengthen their influence. 

Subnational assumptions for the Maradi region

• In the Maradi region, incidents are expected to increase after the 2024 rainy season, but the number of anticipated attacks is likely to be lower this year compared to previous years. This is due to the recent military cooperation and joint security operations between the military chiefs of Niger and Nigeria. 

Humanitarian food assistance

National assumption 

• The implementation of the government's response plans and the procurement of sufficient food stocks by humanitarian partners will be hindered by disruptions in cross-border flows resulting from tensions in sociopolitical relations with Benin and ECOWAS. However, stock levels will be higher than those of last year due to good local production. 

Subnational assumptions for the Tillabéry, Tahoua, Maradi, and Diffa regions

• The security measures taken by the authorities, particularly the travel ban in insecure areas, will be an additional obstacle in conducting humanitarian food assistance distribution operations.

Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET is then able to project acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs throughout the projection period. Similar to the analysis of current acute food insecurity outcomes, FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance. 

Conflict areas: Tillabéry, Northern Tahoua, Diffa, and Southern Maradi

From October 2024 until May 2025, poor households, displaced people, and flood victims will continue to depend on the markets to meet their food needs. Food prices in markets will remain very high, and opportunities to earn sufficient income to strengthen purchasing power will be limited. Food consumption will be reduced to one meal per day, despite households resorting to credit to purchase food. Moreover, due to financial and security constraints, assistance distributions will be irregular and will not reach more than 10 percent of households. These households will be facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Poor, displaced, and flood-stricken households, whose proportion will not exceed 15 percent, will face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. Given the ongoing impact of insecurity on livelihoods and the current and persistent disturbances in these areas, the key factors influencing food insecurity in these regions are likely to persist until the end of the scenario period, hindering any significant improvement in food consumption.

Other agricultural and agropastoral areas: 

From October to January 2025, households' stocks could ensure food consumption and meet their energy needs thanks to the new harvests, which will provide both food and income. They will be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1). 

From February to May 2025, poor households' stocks as sources of food and income will be depleted, and they will depend on markets for the purchase of consumer goods. Income from off-season agricultural labor will strengthen purchasing power but will not be sufficient to cover non-food expenditures, placing them in a Stressed (IPC Phase 2). However, poor and flood-affected households will continue to depend on the markets, where high prices will limit their access to food. To cover their energy needs, they will resort to reducing the number and portion size of meals. Thus, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist through May 2025 for these households, representing 10 to 15 percent of the population per area. 

Pastoral areas: 

From October 2024 to January 2025, pastures and water points will be sufficiently available, ensuring access to pastoral resources, with animals in good condition and capable of producing milk for both consumption and sales. Households will thus have sufficient access to food and income to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. 

From February to May 2025, pastoral resources will become scarce, livestock body conditions will deteriorate, and livestock yields and market value will fall sharply. Prices in food product markets will be very high, while households will depend on these markets year-round for their food consumption. The purchasing power of poor households will decrease significantly, limiting them to reduced quantities that are insufficient to meet both their food and non-food consumption needs. These households will rely on lower-quality, cheaper foods during this period, and their food security will worsen, pushing them into Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. 

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

National 

Improvement in the security situation in areas of insecurity following joint military operations, particularly in the Liptako Gourma region

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Displaced populations will return to their areas of origin and make use of the potential for vegetable farming and other livelihood activities. Trade routes will become safer, enabling adequate supplies to markets, the functioning of which will gradually be restored. Households will have more food resources, and their food situation will improve from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in February to May 2025.

Normalization of sociopolitical relations with Benin leading to the reopening of the border

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Food and nutritional input trade flows will resume, increasing food availability in the country. Markets will be better supplied, and prices will be lower than expected. Household purchasing power will improve, allowing access to larger quantities of food than anticipated in the most likely scenario. Poor households currently projected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to food price spikes and reduced access to and consumption of food will change to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1), respectively, in February–May 2025.