Lean season prices well above the seasonal average

• As predicted by weather forecasts, moderate to heavy rainfall in late June/early July spurred the 2013/14 growing season, allowing 86 percent of farming villages to complete planting, compared to an average planting rate of 90 percent during this period. However, the late onset of the rainy season in some parts of Zinder, Tahoua, and Diffa regions could result in localized start of season delays.  

• A study of price trends for locally grown cereal crops (millet and sorghum) shows normal seasonal price increases at moderately above rates compared to the seasonal average due to unusual shifts in trade patterns. These increases are translating into unusual five to ten percent monthly price hikes, which are likely to continue in areas along the Nigerian border, where prices will peak sometime in August.

• Expert assessments by the National Food Crisis and Disaster Management system put the size of the country’s food-insecure population at 1,123,618 as of May/June of this year, including refugees.  This estimate is 56 percent below the five-year average. 

• Normal agropastoral seasonal progress will stabilize seasonal income which, combined with additional food supplies and cash from assistance programs between July and September, will temper the effects of high prices on poor households in most parts of the country, translating into Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1).  However, poor households in Diffa and Nguigmi will continue to face IPC Phase 2: Stressed food insecurity between July and September after a difficult lean season with exceptionally high staple food prices. Crop consumption from upcoming harvests between October and December and various cash and in-kind payments will significantly improve food access, producing Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) throughout the country as of October.

Current situation

The slow start of the rainy season in late May and early June was followed by a period of regular rainfall activity, consistent with normal seasonal trends, mainly in the Dosso, Maradi, Tillabéri, Zinder, and Tahoua regions. Significant amounts of rain since late June and early July have visibly improved crop growth. Seasonal performance to-date has been consistent with the updated seasonal outlook that calls for average to slightly above-average rainfall for the period from July through September. With to-date cumulative seasonal rainfall totals still under the averages for this three-month period, heavy rainfall in August and September is likely if the forecast holds true.

The crop planting rate as of mid-July was 86 percent, compared with 82 percent as of the same time last year and the average rate of 90 percent for the middle of July. Crop cover rates in major crop-producing areas of Niger are reportedly over 80 percent, with rates as high as 100 percent in Niamey, 99 percent in Dosso, 95 percent in Maradi and Tillabéri, and 85 percent in Zinder and Tahoua. The Diffa region had the lowest planting rate, or 32 percent, due to the poor rainfall conditions in that area, compared with a rate of 100 percent at the same time last year. However, this is still within the normal range, with no major anomalies in the start of the rainy season in the Diffa region, according to the average start-of-season calendar as established by Agrhymet and the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics. On the other hand, there could be a slight lag in the start of the growing season in the Zinder and Tahoua regions, where 15 percent of farming villages had still not plant their crops by the average starting date.

The implementation of a seed assistance program furnishing 15,000 metric tons of seeds, including 10,000 MT of high-quality seeds and 5,000 MT of local varieties, up from last year’s figure of 10,000 MT of seeds, has improved the likelihood of achieving a good level of seeded areas. As of June, close to 8,600 MT of seeds had been distributed to approximately 860,000 households, which is more than the number of households classified as severely food-insecure by the current vulnerability assessment in May/June. Current rainfall is creating conducive soil moisture conditions for the proper growth and development of millet, sorghum, cowpea, and groundnut crops, most of which are in the sprouting stage this early in  the season, with the most advanced millet crops already in the growth stage in certain parts of the Dosso and Maradi regions.

Livestock are in average physical condition after a normal lean season in pastoral areas extending through the end of July, with normal access to pasture resources which are currently limited to shoots of herbaceous plants produced by the early rains in late April and throughout the month of May in the Tahoua, Zinder, Dosso, Agadez, Maradi, Niamey, and Tillabéri regions. Heavy rains in late June helped promote the growth of small amounts of new emergent pasture in all pastoral areas of these regions. However, sparse forage production as a result of delayed rains in pastoral areas has livestock feeding mainly on natural pasture (brush straw, perennial plants, and woody pasture), supplemented by local feed distributed through a joint annual program by the government and its partners, which ias furnishing close to 4,600 metric tons of wheat bran, feed cakes, and cottonseed and close to 3,232 metric tons of alfalfa enriched with maize for livestock in these regions. Livestock in farming areas are feeding on brush straw and woody pasture in forest groves and enclaves and on crop residues and shoots of fodder shrubs in agroforestry parklands. In line with normal animal watering conditions, most livestock are being watered at underground wells and boreholes, a few surface watering holes formed by rainwater, mainly in pastoral areas, and at year-round water courses (rivers and tributaries) and permanent and semi-permanent (seasonal) lakes and ponds in farming and agropastoral areas.

In general, markets are getting normal shipments of supplies from unusually diversified sources. Bolstering market cereal supplies are subsidized sales of cereal from cooperative and government inventories at 13,000 to 15,000 francs per 100 kg sack of millet, sorghum, or maize, compared with market prices of 25,000 to 29,000 francs. These supplies will increase in August and September as traders are encouraged to unload their inventories in response to indicators of good seasonal progress.

According to findings by the joint FEWS NET/WFP assessment of markets and food stocks in June of this year, household food supplies consist largely of the stocks of crops held by 20 to 40 percent of farmers or, in other words, by middle-income and better-off households with average crop inventories. In general, current market demand is from pastoralists and, in particular, from very poor and poor pastoral households. While this demand is normal, there has been a growing demand for sorghum as the main substitute cereal for millet, which was selling for 259 F/kg on the Maradi market this past June, approximately 36 percent above the five-year average.

Findings also showed a sharp decline in this year’s imports from Nigeria, which normally account for most market supplies in Niger. The areas hardest hit by the reduced volume of Nigerian imports are Maradi, Zinder, Tahoua, and Diffa, where households normally depend on local markets for over 80 percent of their food supplies at this time of year. This has upset normal trade patterns, resulting in a larger volume of imports from Burkina Faso, Mali, and Benin, which have become the main sources of supply for cereal markets in the western part of the country, particularly in the Tillabéri and Niamey regions. These imports have also come to represent a large share of market supplies in central and southeastern Niger, particularly supplies of maize, as well as sorghum.

In general, prices for local cereal crops and for millet in particular are 30 to 40 percent above the five-year average. However, a comparison of these prices with normal seasonal trends shows 11 to 20 percent higher than average prices on the Maradi, Zinder, and Diffa markets that are highly dependent on cereal trade with Nigeria, and stable or slightly higher prices on markets in western Niger. This has cut the normal price differential between western and eastern markets in half this year, or from 30 down to 14 percent.  Should this trend continue, movements in prices will follow their usual pattern, but prices on eastern markets will be 15 to 30 percent higher than usual between July and December, with October prices for millet and sorghum (at harvest time) approaching levels similar to June prices (during the lean season). Projections of seasonal price trends on western markets for the period from July through December put sorghum prices slightly below and millet prices slightly above normal seasonal levels.

Prices for livestock are on par with if not above the five-year average but, with the higher than usual seasonal prices of cereal, the prices commanded by pastoralists for the same types of animals are buying only 70 to 80 percent of the usual amount of cereal.

A study of the nutritional situation based on the number of children admitted to therapeutic feeding centers for acute malnutrition shows increased admissions between April and May. The 30 percent increase in the number of children suffering from acute malnutrition between April and May of this year was largely due to a 36 percent jump in the number of cases of moderate malnutrition. This deterioration in nutritional conditions is in line with normal seasonal trends for this time of year coinciding with the start-up of blanket feeding programs in May, extending through September/October. The preliminary findings by the joint survey of malnutrition in children under five years of age conducted by the government and its partners, including UNICEF, in May/June of this year put the global acute malnutrition rate at 13.3 percent, compared with last year’s figure of 14.8 percent and the five-year average of 13.5 percent. The Maradi region had the highest rate of malnutrition, at 16.3 percent. Malnutrition rates in the Agadez, Tillabéri, Tahoua, Diffa, Dosso, Zinder, and Niamey regions ranged from 11 tot 14 percent.

Findings by the assessment of household vulnerability to food insecurity released by the SAP (national early warning system) estimate the size of the food-insecure population at 1,123, 618, including IDPs, which is down by 83 percent from last year and 56 percent below the five-year average for the same time of year. Most areas affected by the deterioration in food security conditions between the two study periods lie in the municipality of Agadez (Agadez) in Arlit department, N’Guigmi (Diffa) in Diffa department, Bermo (Maradi), Ouallam and Banibangou (in Tillabéri), and Gouré, Magaria, and the municipality of Zinder (Zinder). The deterioration in the food access of poor households in these areas is due mainly to their loss of migration income from Nigeria and Libya with the conflicts in these two countries, which is eroding their purchasing power.

The combined effects of ongoing deliveries of food assistance in the form of subsidized sales programs and targeted distributions of free food rations and of normal to above-normal wage rates for farm labor are helping to mitigate the impact of increasing cereal prices and fill household food gaps. Thus, households in most parts of the country are currently experiencing Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1).  However, with reduced income streams from migrant remittances and sales of livestock, even with these food assistance programs, households in the Diffa and Nguigmi areas unable to meet nonfood expenses are still facing IPC Phase 2 Stressed levels of acute food insecurity.

Assumptions

The most likely food security scenario for the period from July through December 2013 is based on the following underlying assumptions with respect to future trends at a national level:

• The rainfall outlook is for average to above-average cumulative rainfall totals, with a good temporal distribution of rainfall.
• There will be average to good levels of crop and animal production in farming and agropastoral areas of the country.
• There will be no change in the civil security situation in Nigeria, which will mean losses of remittance income and less demand from Nigeria for livestock exports.
• Normal rainy season conditions will prompt traders to unload their inventories and improve cereal trade flows in August and September.
• The sociopolitical situation in Mali will improve as a result of the Ouagadougou agreement, which could even prompt certain displaced populations to start returning to their homes in October, two months after the presidential elections.
• Cereal demand will stabilize between September and December after spiking in July-August in connection with the observance of Ramadan.
• Cereal prices will stay above the seasonal average, particularly between July and August. Millet and sorghum prices will approach levels moderately above the seasonal average, depending on the area in question, before stabilizing or starting to come down, but will remain high. In general, prices will drop by five to 15 percent between August and September-October, in line with normal seasonal trends. Normal demand engendered by government and private stock-building activities in November/December will drive millet and sorghum prices on the Maradi and Zinder markets up by five to 10 percent between October and November-December. 
• Cereal prices in the central and western reaches of the country will be above-average between July and September and from October through December due to high consumer demand for the observance of Ramadan in July/August, the fattening of livestock in August/September, and the religious and year-end holidays between October and December.
• The presidential elections in Mali will restore sociopolitical stability, prompting many refugees to return to their homes between now and the end of December, though persistent security threats in northern Mali will preclude the return of pastoral populations. Poor households will remain in Niger to take advantage of ongoing assistance programs. However, even with the presence of 6,300 Nigerians (since April/May), the total number of refugees will still not reach the target number of 100,000 program beneficiaries under the humanitarian assistance plan.
• The desert locust threat will be successfully managed and will not cause any major losses or damage to cereal crops in July/August/September. The government will take necessary measures to prevent a possible locust infestation from affecting the 2013-2014 growing season, including continuous surveillance.
• With the promising outlook for the rainy season, there will be a normal to good demand for farm labor for crop maintenance work. Thus, even if the assumption with regard to millet prices proves true, a daily wage of 1500 to 2000 francs will still buy an average of five to six kilograms of millet, which is above the norm of four kg of millet per day.
• The nutritional situation will deteriorate in line with normal seasonal trends, mainly in traditional problem areas such as Maradi and Zinder, but also in areas where nutritional conditions are normally better, such as urban and peri-urban areas of Diffa.
• As usual, stock-building efforts by the government, cooperatives, traders, and pastoralists in November-December will trigger a normal rise in demand.
• With the help of its partners, the government will mobilize 50,000 to 60,000 metric tons of cereal to be distributed free of charge and sold at subsidized prices through normal distributions of free food rations, blanket feeding programs, and subsidized marketing programs, mainly between June and August.

Most likely food security outcomes

Interannual food assistance programs will cover most food needs of poor households between July and September and, with income from local on-farm employment and sales of livestock and poultry, will help to meet other nonfood needs. The availability of wild plant foods as of August/September will help diversify the household diet. Acute food insecurity will be  Minimal (IPC Phase 1) between July and September, except in Diffa and N’Guigmi, where rising prices and lower incomes will force poor households to spend their income on food and preclude any expenditures on livelihood protection, producing Stressed food security outcomes (IPC Phase 2). Between October and December, the higher prices commanded by livestock and higher wages paid for work in the harvest will help provide households with a good reserve of funds to be used primarily to rebuild their livelihoods and cover nonfood expenses. Average to good harvests and in-kind wage payments will help enable all households to maintain their food access and meet their food needs. The share of household spending on cereal purchases will be sharply reduced, with the extra cash used to cover the cost of schooling and health care for their children between October and December. In general, acute food insecurity will remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) during this period.

Agropastoral areas of Diffa

Current situation

The main ongoing activity in this agropastoral azone is crop-farming and, more specifically, maintenance of the crops planted by a third of the area’s farming villages as of July 20th. This is a normal rate of progress based on the average start-of-season, which generally falls sometime in July. To help create more conducive conditions for crop production by very poor and poor households, the government and its partners distributed 261 metric tons of seeds to 26,100 households, the number of households classified by food security and vulnerability assessments as food-insecure.

Very poor and poor households buy all necessary cereal supplies to meet their food needs on the market. This year, the return of migrant workers failed to produce the usual influx of cash and remittances are down sharply with the conflict in Nigeria, prompting migrants to return home sooner than usual and triggering an influx of refugees. The main income-generating activities for very poor and poor households are wage labor and sales of small animals, poultry, and eggs.

Area markets that provide for cereal purchase for household consumption and sales of livestock and cash crops by local populations are negatively impacted by the downturn in trade with Nigeria. The distance of this zone from major domestic markets explains its heavy dependence on Nigeria, where growing civil security threats prompted the government to declare a state of emergency in border areas with the Diffa region of Niger, reducing trade flows and tightening supplies, particularly of millet and sorghum, driving their prices above the five-year average by 22 to 27 percent (June). The substitution effect and large demand from traders from other regions such as Zinder and Maradi have also driven up the price of locally grown maize, which is nine percent above-average.

The usual decline in pasture availability and normal drying up of animal watering holes in pastoral areas have not significantly affected the physical condition of livestock. With the influx of Nigerian pastoralists into the area, there are reports of larger than usual concentrations of animals around wells and watering holes and on local grazing lands.

The disruption in ties with Nigeria has reduced migrant remittances and migration income from migrant workers returning home in May/June two times in a row since the Libyan crisis in 2011/12. With the rainy season in this area getting off to a slow start, wage income from farm labor is still limited. Livestock prices on markets in Diffa are 24 percent below-average, translating into a 40 percent regression in terms of trade for male goats/millet. The lower prices of livestock are due to the lack of demand from Nigerian buyers and the larger supply of animals with the presence of Nigerian refugees and their herds. An examination of seasonal trends in market prices shows small monthly fluctuations of from three to 11 percent in market prices in Diffa, compared with price fluctuations of from 10 to 18 percent on other markets in the Maradi region for example. 

Assumptions

The most likely food security scenario in this area for the period from July through December 2013 is based on the following underlying assumptions:

• There will be average to good October harvests, with normal levels of on-farm consumption between October and December.
• There will be a larger than usual demand for cereal in July and August with the observance of Ramadan and the presence of refugees and returnees from Nigeria.
• Millet and sorghum prices could outstrip the five-year average by 20 to 30 percent in July-August. Prices will come down between September and December in line with normal seasonal trends, but will stay above average.  
• The end of Ramadan and of the lean season in agropastoral areas in August will bring down cereal demand compared with previous months.  However, the presence of 6,300 refugees and returnees from Nigeria will create a larger than usual demand between September and December.
• Ongoing security problems in Nigeria will disrupt commodity markets, reducing essential imports of millet and sorghum for household cereal access by more than 50 percent and 20 percent, respectively, between July and September.
• The disruption of the Nigerian labor market and suspension of migrant remittances between July and December will force households to reduce certain types of spending.
• Households will be unable to sell their pepper crops, which will affect their purchasing power in November-December.

Most likely food security outcomes

The ongoing conflict in Nigeria will continue to limit trade and sharply reduce market supplies of millet and sorghum. High demand in July, August, and September for millet and sorghum, as well as for maize due to the substitution effect and demand from the refugee population and other regions will continue to drive up prices. The main sources of food during this period will be market purchase, community assistance, and food assistance. While these resources should meet food needs, the lack of a stable income will preclude any spending by very poor and poor households on nonfood items, creating livelihood protection deficits reflected in spikes in the numbers of children admitted to treatment facilities for global acute malnutrition. The combined effects of outbreaks of malaria and food gaps in July-August-September will cause the nutritional situation to deteriorate, translating into a larger than usual spike in admissions of children to treatment centers for global acute malnutrition in July-August-September with the influx of Nigerian refugee households into the area. However, the combination of falling prices, supplies of freshly harvested crops, and a scaled-up emergency assistance program for refugees in October, November, and December will bring the admissions curve in line with normal seasonal trends. Acute food insecurity in this area between July and September will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

Between September and December, the seasonal decline in cereal prices and availability of crops from recent harvests will help improve food access and food intake. Earnings from farm labor and other sources will generate extra cash and in-kind income which can be used to cover nonfood expenses. In general, households will face Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) between October and December.

Pastoral areas of N’Guigmi

Current situation

Most of the population of this area (56 percent) consists of very poor and poor households whose livelihoods depend on one or two head of large animals, four to six head of small animals, and poultry flocks. Rainfall levels generally range from 100 to 200 mm, but the currently light rainfall activity in this area is hindering the growth of new plant cover. Thus, current food security conditions for the local animal population are marked by an extremely slow start-of-season, with any plant cover limited to crop residues in irrigation schemes in the southern reaches of the area, and by the normal drying up of animal watering holes, creating large concentrations of animals around wells and boreholes, which are currently being overtaxed with the influx of Nigerian refugees and their herds. However, livestock are still in normal physical condition. Livestock exports to Nigeria and Libya for sale in those countries are down sharply from the same time last year and compared with the norm due to the civil insecurity problems in both countries. Conditions on livestock markets are also affected by the absence of Nigerian traders, though there is a certain amount of consumer demand from oil workers in the area.

As far as the nutritional situation is concerned, the nationwide survey of child nutrition in May/June puts the global acute malnutrition rate at approximately 12.3 percent, under last year’s figure of 16.7 percent and the five-year average of 16.8 percent for the same time of year.

The main staple foods are imported millet and sorghum from Nigeria. These cereals are in short supply on markets frequented by local households due to the trade restrictions imposed in the wake of the declaration of a state of emergency by the Nigerian government. As a primarily pastoral area, most of the food consumed by local households is normally purchased on local markets or is gifted or furnished by government social assistance programs. The influx of pastoral households from Nigeria into the area has created a larger than usual consumer demand. With food prices 23 to 30 percent above-average and livestock prices hovering around the average, the cereal equivalent of livestock is 15 percent below-average for this time of year. The normal levels of income generated by the tending of livestock, sales of wood and straw, gifts, migrant remittances, and craft-making, the main sources of income for very poor and poor households, are buying below-average amounts of cereal. These households are unable to purchase sufficient amounts of cereal with this income without severely depleting herds and reducing or eliminating all spending on health care and other nonfood items in July, resulting in Stressed acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 2).

Assumptions

The most likely scenario in this area for the period from July through December 2013 is based on the following underlying assumptions:

• There will be normal to above-normal levels of rainfall, with good biomass production in August-September and good pasture availability for livestock between October and December.
• Seasonal migration by transhumant herds will get off to a normal start in December.
• Households will have less income between July and September with the loss of cash remittances from migrant workers forced to return home sooner than usual.
• The low demand for exports between July and December and larger supply of animals with the influx of foreign pastoralists and their herds will erode terms of trade for livestock/cereal.
• The supply of pasture will be prematurely depleted by December with the heavy pressure on pasture resources from the livestock of refugee pastoral households grazing on area pasturelands between July and December.
• Increased millet and sorghum prices will be above normal seasonal levels by an average of 11 to 13 percent. Staple cereal prices will come down between September and October, only to rebound between November and December.
• The rise in livestock prices between October and December during the holiday season (Tabaski and New Years) will improve terms of trade for male sheep/goats versus millet and sorghum.

Most likely food security outcomes

Poor households will meet their food needs between July and September by selling more animals, but will be unable to cover their nonfood expenses due to their moderately large losses of income as a result of ongoing conflicts precluding migration to Libya and Nigeria. A rebound in livestock prices between October and December, during the holiday season, will create favorable terms of trade for pastoralists, allowing them to meet their food needs and cover their nonfood expenses. Malnutrition rates will rise between July and September due to outbreaks of disease and insufficient spending on health care, but should be in line with normal seasonal trends between October and December with the availability and consumption of milk and bolstered food rations supplied by school meal programs. This area will face Stressed acute food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 2) between July and September, followed by Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) between October and December.