Niger Summary of Market and Food Security Situational Analysis

• Import requirements for this year are below 600,000 tons, significantly lower than commercial imports estimated by FEWS NET in 2009/10, the most recent crisis year.

• Irregular price behavior is not an indicator of crisis or market dysfunction. Rather, this behavior is the result of:  increased production costs, significant harvest delays, increased transportation costs from Nigeria due to civil unrest and the removal of oil price subsidies, and the anticipation of higher than normal institutional demand.

• Despite increased cereal prices that are 20-40 percent above average, very poor and poor households accessed food in January (no observation of any substitution effect, irreversible adaptation strategies, etc.) Income may have increased more than product prices.

• However, a seasonal price increase starting in April is likely to result in insufficient access to meet minimum food requirements during the peak between July and September, especially in zones that have suffered from production shocks (agro-pastoral zones in western Niger and southern Tessaoua). 

Markets are expected to respond to agricultural production, which is significantly below average in localized areas, especially the Tillabéri and Tahoua regions. According to final agricultural statistical data, cereal production is not significantly below average in the regions of Zinder, Diffa or Maradi.  Final results of the 2011/12 season (for which there is a technical consensus) indicate total gross cereal production of 3,628,384 tons recorded in millet, sorghum, corn, fonio and rice. This production leaves an estimated gross national cereal self-sufficiency deficit of 692,502 tons.

In a typical year, Niger imports approximately 400,000 tons through informal and formal commercial networks, and 50,000-100,000 tons in food assistance. The cereal balance consists of significant reserves carried over from the 2010/11 record year. Estimates made by CILSS, FEWS NET, WFP and FAO during the January market evaluation mission indicate significant cross-border reserves in Benin and Nigeria. In 2009/10, the most recent crisis year in the Sahel, FEWS NET estimated commercial imports to be 900,000 tons. This means that cereal production and availability in the sub-region constitutes favorable conditions for meeting Niger’s import requirements.

Trader reserves have been sufficiently replenished to meet future institutional demand. Public reserves are being replenished for a forecasted provision of 80,000 tons, versus an estimated average of 50,000 tons.

Increased prices, typical at harvest time are not a crisis indicator. Increases are explained first by one to two month harvest delays due to the prolonged season. The launch of significantly early institutional appeals in September or October (well before the harvests, which came late this year), instead of November or December in a normal year, aggravated commercial demand in anticipation of high institutional demand. These behaviors caused higher than average demand for the period while the supply level in markets was lower than average. Prices were nevertheless in a stable trend in January in comparison to prior months.

Internal and cross-border cereal flows are operating well and are higher than normal. Despite social unrest in Nigeria, the principal country of origin for imported millet, markets are supplied regularly. Algeria is also a supplier of pasta par excellence to certain regions (couscous, macaroni, etc.).

Generally, cereal prices are 20-40 percent higher than average and higher than the same period in 2011. January prices are comparable to the level normally observed during lean periods. These prices reflect increased production costs (re-sowing several times with a 20-30 percent increase in the price of labor in comparison to last year) and an increase in the price of transportation from Nigeria due to the cessation of fuel price subsidies as well as increased risks resulting from civil insecurity.

FEWS NET assumes that price stability observed in January will continue until April or May. An upward change might be seen beginning in June with rates of 5 percent until July or August. At this rate, millet prices will peak at approximately 227 to 229 XOF/kg in July or August.

Households currently have access to preferred cereals (principally millet), either with their own reserves or on markets, despite very high price levels. The prices of principal substitution cereals (corn and sorghum) are generally significantly below those of millet and stable or dropping (in other words, they do not show a substitution effect). Markets confirm other evidence observed, such as increased income compared to last year and the absence of a large early labor migration in October (the average peak of displacement is in January and February).

The main sources of household food and income are the sales of labor, fish, straw and wood, livestock, labor migration, and small business activities. For the time being, no anomaly is observed in these indicators that would affect food availability or consumption and income negatively. Labor migration represents an important household economic factor. This will certainly improve income compared to 2011 (the year of the Libyan crisis) but remains at least stable compared to average. Libyan entrepreneurs are reportedly sending money to migrants from Niger to facilitate their return to Libya. In addition, the sale of straw and bricks are strategies that households use to obtain enough income.

Prices of income-generating activities are higher than average. The salary of unqualified day labor increased from approximately 1000 XOF in 2010/11 to 1500 XOF in 2011/12 (a 50 percent increase). Adobe brick is sold at 20 XOF versus 15 XOF on average and a load of straw is currently sold at 3500 XOF versus 2000 XOF in the same period in 2011 (a 75 percent increase). The price of wood, like the price of straw, is approximately 50 percent higher than average levels due to higher than average demand and lower temperatures (high demand for wood). Good market garden production (onions, lettuce, cabbage, carrots, tomatoes) constitutes an important food and income source for poor households until April 2012 although prices are 15 percent less when compared to the average. Income from the sale of cash crops is average overall in favor of production, which is 2 to 36 times higher than production in an average year. In addition to the migration of workers, which slightly intensified this year, these cash crops are the most important income sources for poor and very poor households in the country. Generally, income has increased more than prices of principal cereals.

Migration is normal and no movement of entire households has been observed. Other coping strategies also are normal. Unlike 2009/2010 where many women were reportedly moving in search of domestic work or millet grinding during the same period, this kind of displacement has not yet been reported this year. A portion of the Libyan migrants have returned to Libya. From November 1, 2011 to January 3, 2012, OCHA reported 9,192 migrants who returned to Libya. Those who are able to adapt stayed and are investing in several zones of economic activity.

Fodder availability is average due to an informal restriction by canton chiefs who prohibit illegal collection of straw on fallow land and pastoral areas. However, heavy rains recorded over the second week of February could result in a heavy reduction of the nutrition value of available fodder in the Tillabéri and Dosso regions, which received large quantities of rain.

Supply and demand of animals are normal, and no abnormal movement of animals is currently observed.  Displacement from zones with fodder deficits to areas with average production is occurring as normal. Animal bodyweight is acceptable and prices are high compared to the average and stable compared to the same period in 2011, especially for large animals.

The nutrition situation is stable, and the number of admissions remains the same or lower compared to 2011 and to the average for the last five years. The health situation also remains normal.

Tillabéri, Filingué and Téra Zone 

Additional import requirements this year are principally localized in the agro-pastoral zones in the Tillabéri and Tahoua regions, where approximately 60 percent of people are very poor and poor. Market purchase in January represented close to 100 percent of food sources versus 40 to 60 percent on average in December, a result of the early exhaustion of household reserves from self-production in December-January, which normally happens in March-April. Prices in December were higher than average, while income to purchase food remained stable, which assumes lower terms of trade when compared to the average. This drives higher than normal food expenditures, but normal food consumption overall due, to assistance.

The proportion of imported food on zone markets in January was approximately 20 percent higher in 2009/10 than this year, indicating that traders estimate the agricultural production gap to be smaller this year than in 2009/10. Supplies are regular due to sales by traders with have good reserve levels this year, and producers in supply countries (Benin) who will sell their stocks to pay laborers, to support cotton activities in January until April-May. Starting in June-July until September, supply will be replenished through sales made by local surplus producers, who will use revenue to pay local laborers for agricultural production. Also, the government will sell cereals at subsidized prices. Well-supplied markets will still demonstrate high prices, with peaks in July and August.

Markets for income-generating products

Thirty to sixty percent more people than normal are migrating to Niamey as well as Nigeria, Ghana, Togo and Ivory Coast. Migration of workers has also been observed in the gold mining zones of western Niger, where new sites were made operational in 2011. The number of migrants will increase compared to the average, but the demand for migrant labor will remain the same, so more than 20 percent of migrants will not find migrant work. This high number of migrants will be reflected by an absence of able-bodied workers in certain households to receive in-kind support and income from cash and food for work programs.

The supply of market farming products is high and prices are stable and similar to last year’s levels.  However, taking into account poor rainfall and parasite infestations, gathered wild food products such as jujube and baobab leaves are less available.  The demand for these items has remained stable and prices are at 1000 XOF versus 750 XOF in 2011 for a bag of baobab leaves. Income from this activity remains generally similar to income levels earned in a typical year.

Poor rainfall resulted in mediocre biomass production and low availability of brush straw, the supply of which is dropping sharply where demand is rising sharply, with prices that are doubling: 1000 XOF versus 500 XOF for a bundle of straw last year. The supply of wood is higher than average, as sharp drops in temperatures this year promoted strong demand for heating wood and a subsequent price increase from 4000-5000 XOF/cart last year to 7000-7500 XOF/cart this year. The labor supply is strong for irrigated rice harvesting work, but demand and prices of day labor are weak due to poor production in the winter season.

The supply of poultry (hens, cocks and guinea fowl) is higher than the supply in an average year and the prices have remained average at 1500 XOF to 2000 XOF per unit.

Impact of the conflict in Mali

Sociopolitical conflicts in Mali are resulting in an influx of Malian herds into Niger and the return of animals with pastoralists who have left for summer pastures in Mali. This situation will cause an earlier exhaustion of available forage, especially in the North Tillabéri.

Assistance

Households in this zone also benefited from cash for work programs, which started earlier than normal this year, in November and December, as a part of a government emergency plan. Humanitarian response currently underway by organizations and the government benefits vulnerable populations across three departments and is summarized below:

• Support to market farming production in November 2011-January 2012, 2 months earlier than normal
• Food for work: 270 tons from November-January, 3 months earlier than normal;
• Recovery program for flood-affected households, from November through September;
• Distribution of 240 goats to 120 beneficiaries in November;
• 6 tons of livestock food in December,
• Input support to 480 producers in November;
• Reconstruction of collapsed housing to 55 households in December,
• Cash for work of 270,256,000 XOF from November 2011 to January 2012

These responses are presented within the scope of a 3-month emergency program, from November to January, and allowed for dietary improvements as well as for increased income.

Summary of food security scenario through September 2012

Household income (through the sale of livestock, poultry, wood, straw, etc.) and food assistance will remain stable, normal but considering the abnormal and sustained rise in cereal prices of cereals, deficits will occur in terms of quantities purchased by households for consumption, especially among poor and very poor households in January until April-May. With the return of migrants and subsequent increases in food consumption, household needs will further exceed the quantities purchased and consumed in June, July and August.

Child malnutrition rates in this zone will be evaluated at 13 percent in October 2011, below October 2010 levels. Admissions of malnourished children to nutritional centers continue to follow typically stable trends relative to a slight increase. Increases signaling the lean period are not expected until starting in April.

Poor and very poor households will experience “stress” in February-March-April until May-June, trending towards further deterioration.   A “crisis” level may occur given a serious decrease in food access and consumption resulting from insufficient levels of food assistance and higher than average cereal prices.  Increased cereal prices will also lead to terms of trade for work paid for in cereal, further compounded by abnormally high rates of child malnutrition.

Critical information gaps

• Impact of social tensions in Nigeria and Mali on income and food sources of local populations in Niger.