Crop conditions improve significantly but risk factors persist

• Crop development improved significantly in September thanks to regular heavy rainfall since late July and early August, leading to expectations of nearly average national cereal production, with rains predicted to continue through September. However, the planting delay in Tillabéri and Diffa means that even with the extended season local production, harvests there may be below average.

• August 2013 cereal prices are lower than those in August 2012, but are still 20 to 40 percent above average in central and eastern parts of the country. By and large, prices began their seasonal decline in August and September, dropping by more than what is seasonally average except in Tahoua, Zinder, and Diffa.

• Institutional food aid and the harvest of wild foods and cereals in September are improving food access throughout the country, with the acute food insecurity remaining Minimal (IPC Phase 1) except in the Nguigmi department, where poor households are still Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

2013/14 growing season conditions

Unlike during the planting phase in May and June, the crop growth and reproductive stages have benefited from favorable weather conditions since late July and early August. Regular heavy rainfall promoted normal crop growth in the country’s farming and herding regions. Millet and cowpea crops are at the normal stages of seed-setting/maturity and fruiting on 20 to 50 percent of planted land in the Tahoua, Zinder, Maradi, and Dosso cultivation areas. Yields in these regions are expected to be average overall. Cash crop production will be equally good, especially for cowpeas, groundnuts, sesame, and tiger nut, in all regions, and for onions in Agadez, as a result of favorable water conditions and limited infestations by crop pests.

In other regions, especially Tillabéri and Diffa, cereal crops are affected by delayed planting and growth. In Nguigmi (Diffa), crops were sown late in mid-August, and had only a month of rain followed by dryness. In Ouallam, Tillabéri, and Say (Tillabéri), reduced production will be due to late planting and delayed crop growth. As a result of these detrimental factors, expected millet and sorghum production will be 60 percent below average in these areas, corresponding to a loss of 10 to 12 percent of national production. Local production is predicted to last about two months in these regions. However, this shortfall will not heavily impact food security within the country, since national production is expected to be sufficient overall.

The long lean season ended in pastoral areas with heavy rains beginning in July. Animal movement and concentration have normalized with the growth of vegetation and the filling of watering holes in herding areas. Livestock health and condition are improving normally, which helps increase their market value and terms of trade of animals for cereals. Yet the long periods of drought in May, June, and even July have translated into strips of below-average forage production, mainly in the Tanout, Abalak, Tchintabaraden, Gouré, and Nguigmi departments. Livestock farmers in these areas may see weight loss in their animals beginning in March.

Following the heavy rains, some regions experienced damage from flooding, especially in Maradi, Tillabéri, Dosso, Tahoua, and Agadez. Most of the losses involved property damage, with minimal losses of productive assets. An emergency food and non-food aid program was implemented to help about 200,000 affected households identified in all regions. Despite significant losses, this year’s seasonal flooding is at lower levels than what was seen last year.

Institutional food aid and the harvest of leaves and cereals in September are improving food access throughout the country, which is experiencing Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) in September except in the Nguigmi department. In Nguigmi, poor livelihood protection, the effect of high prices and reduced seasonal income is placing poor and very poor households at the Stressed level (IPC Phase 2).

Market Conditions

The market supply has improved significantly as a result of local stock selloffs. Even though the security situation has not changed, small amounts of millet and sorghum (about a quarter of the average amount) are flowing from Nigeria to the markets in Zinder and Maradi, where harvesting of this season’s crops has begun. But supplies are not meeting demand on isolated markets such as those in Nguigmi and Agadez, where access is difficult due to security conditions in northeastern Nigeria. Cereal prices are still 20 to 40 percent above the five-year average on the Tahoua, Agadez, Maradi, Zinder, and Diffa markets. They are stable or declining on Niamey, Tillabéri, and Dosso markets, though, which benefit from supplies from Burkina Faso and Mali. Still, prices have begun their seasonal decline, dropping by more than the five-year average on most markets. The same downward trend is seen on the cash crop markets. Prices on the Maradi and Zinder markets are 250 F/kg in September 2013, as compared to 561 F/kg in August 2013 on the Bakin Birdji market, thanks to ongoing harvesting activities and the prospect of good yields.

The behavior of food security indicators confirms the food security outlook forecast for July to December 2013.

Generally speaking, food insecurity in the country will continue to be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from October to December due to good cereal availability associated with the new harvest, payment in kind and in cash for agricultural labor, targeted free distributions, and sales at moderate prices. Food availability for household consumption will be good over the coming months (October-December) and the markets will be supplied to match demand because producers will strategically sell their cash crops first.

In the Nguigmi department (Diffa), cereal markets are not functioning well due to the poor condition of roads and lower income for laborers because of the poor outlook for the growing season. This will leave poor and very poor households unable to meet their non-food expenses in September. During the period from October to December, demand for labor outside this area and at flood-recession maize sites will improve access to and consumption of food as well as income for non-food expenses. This group will experience IPC Phase 2 food insecurity for the period from October to December 2013.