Key Message Update

Food security improves at the national level with the new harvest

November 2015
2015-Q4-1-1-NE-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Although the installation of the rainy season was late in 2015, the good rains beginning in mid-July give the expectation for near average agricultural production and pastoral resource availability at the level national.

  • Although national production is expected to be near average, localized rainfall deficits had negative impacts on crop and pasture development in some departments of Tillaberi and northern Zinder, Tahoua and Maradi. Cereal production surpluses in neighboring areas, and the expected contribution of harvests of irrigated crops could increase local food availability in these areas between December 2015 and March 2016.

  • Following the decline in area planted as a result of continuing conflict, a decrease in agricultural production is expected in the Diffa region where staple food demand has increased with the presence of IDPs and refugees. Surplus stocks are not expected to significantly reach the region due to the security crisis in Nigeria.

  • Until December 2015, most of the country will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity. However, in the Diffa Region Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity observed in November 2015 could continue until at least March 2016. Between January and March 2016, some pastoral areas of Maradi and Tahoua, as well as agropastoral areas of Tillaberi and Zinder, will move to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as food access and availability become more restricted.

     

    For more detailed analysis, see the Food Security Outlook for October 2015.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics