Food insecurity generally Minimal in the post-harvest period

• With current harvests suggesting average to above-average national production levels, farming and agropastoral households are benefiting from good food availability and access and are able to meet their food needs. Most pastoral households are also taking advantage of good livestock-to-cereal terms of trade to access sufficient quantities of cereals for their own consumption without negatively impacting their livelihoods.

• Throughout most of the country, acute food insecurity is Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in November 2014. This situation will last through March 2015 as food access continues to improve.

• However, food security for households in the Diffa region will remain concerning, particularly for returnees and refugees in the southern part of the region and herders in Nguigmi. Poor households in those areas will experience Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) food insecurity conditions through March 2015 due to the availability of humanitarian assistance.

Harvests of rainfed cereal crops are ongoing, and qualitative assessments by the joint FEWS NET/Agrhymet mission and the results of the SAP/WFP/FAO/FEWS NET/Oxfam joint analysis of household food vulnerability forecast average to above-average national crop production levels. Production is expected to be average to above-average in the Maradi, Dosso, Tahoua, and Zinder regions and in the southern agricultural area of the Tillabéri region. In the Diffa region and localized areas of Zinder and Tillabéri, production will be down largely due to the late start to the growing season. However, many households in these areas are urban or pastoral and do not usually produce large quantities of cereals. Of the households whose own cereal production will not cover their food needs, some will still produce above-average yields of cowpeas and have the potential for irrigated crop production.

Off-season crops, including irrigated rice along the Niger River, peppers, maize, and cowpeas on the Komadougou Yobé River and Lake Chad, onions, and other horticultural products are produced in several parts of the country where off-season irrigation is used. Production of these off-season crops has begun along the Niger and Komadougou Rivers and seasonal streams, as well as around the many full ponds (even in areas with rainy season production deficits). With above-average availability of irrigation water and support in the form of agricultural inputs expected from the government and partners, production and areas planted in irrigated crops are expected to be average at the least. Households in farming areas with rainy season production deficits could therefore earn significant additional income from typical sales of two-thirds to three-fourths of harvested cash crops. However, these sales will mostly benefit better-off farmers who have the means to wait for cash crop-to-cereal terms of trade to improve over the next four to six months.

Cowpeas (one of the most important cash crops) are currently the most abundant crop on market, with an average national price of 212 FCFA/kg in October 2014. Above-average cowpea sale prices will allow households nationwide to access an average of almost 20 percent more millet than in 2013 and than the average for this period. Cowpea cereal equivalents vary depending on the market, with quantities of millet ranging from 91 kg/100 kg of cowpeas on the Loga market to more than 200 kg/100 kg of cowpeas on the Nguel Kolo (Diffa), Gaya (Dosso), Tillabéri (Tillabéri), Magaria, Matameye, and Tanout (Zinder) markets.

In general, the country has enough pasture and agricultural byproducts to feed livestock thanks to average pasture production in pastoral areas. Despite generally sufficient pasture availability, agropastoral and pastoral areas in the Diffa region and the departments of Tchintabaraden, Tillia, and Tassa are reporting pasture production deficits, which will lead pastoralists to move toward areas with more abundant pasture resources earlier than usual. The pasture that is available will be used efficiently with the availability of animal watering holes filled by significant quantities of rainfall.

Livestock and animal product sales will allow pastoral households to buy cereals. By selling one adult goat, they will be able to buy one to two 100 kg bags of millet, up from the five-year average of 80 to 100 kg. However, in the Diffa region and particularly in the pastoral area of Nguigmi, where most of the livestock raised are camels, low export demand from Libya will translate into low sale prices and terms of trade that are unfavorable to pastoralists, whose livestock herds are being depleted.

Food security drivers continue to conform with the food security outlook for October 2014 through March 2015.

Food access and consumption will generally be ensured through household food stocks, as most households will have enjoyed a good harvest and earned average levels of income from selling cash crops and livestock. On the whole, livelihoods will perform well thanks to good terms of trade allowing households to sell fewer crops and earn above-average income, a good outlook for irrigated crop production, and sociopolitical conditions favorable to migration. Nationally, food insecurity will generally remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1), at least through March 2015.

However, sources of food and income will continue to deteriorate in the Diffa region and particularly in the pastoral area of Nguigmi, where larger numbers of animals will be sold in order to purchase cereals. These livelihood strategies will allow households to meet their needs in November-December 2014 and will result in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity conditions. With livelihoods continuing to deteriorate in January-March 2015, households will face difficulties procuring sufficient resources to meet their food needs. Without food assistance, they will experience Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) acute food insecurity.

The situation is more concerning in southern Diffa, where renewed armed conflict with Boko Haram is causing more people to migrate to Niger. If assistance programs for refugees continue, southern Diffa will continue to experience Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) acute food insecurity.