Demand met by existing stocks

• Markets are well stocked with cereal, though market supplies of millet, maize, and sorghum in western and central Niger (Tillabéri, Niamey, and Tahoua) are comprised of an unusually large share of imports from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Benin rather than from Nigeria, which is the normal source of supply for these areas. The high price of millet is shifting demand away from this crop, to sorghum, for which the price parity on domestic (Zinder and Maradi) and Nigerian markets is encouraging imports.

• On-farm stocks and seed assistance for poor households from the government and its partners should suffice to meet needs for seeds and cereal consumption needs without households becoming overly market-dependent. 

• Cereal prices on the Maradi and Zinder markets are still above the five-year average by 41 percent (for millet) and 58 percent (for sorghum). However, with existing on-farm stocks, food assistance programs, and income from market garden crops, the general impact on food consumption is negligible. 

• Nevertheless, there has been a sharp decline in food purchase and consumption by poor households in the Diffa region with the loss of migrant remittances and reduction in household income from below average cash crop sales and livestock marketing due to the conflict in Nigeria. IPC Phase 2: Stressed levels of food insecurity  could continue in this area through September.

• The climate forecast for the current growing season as established by the May meeting of PRESAO predicts normal to slightly above-average cumulative rainfall totals for western and central regions of Niger, which are expecting an on-time to locally late start and end-of season. This translates, on one hand, to a high probability of favorable conditions for good crop growth and development.  However, good rainfall may also result in potential crop losses due to flooding in the Niger River Valley, the Komadougou River Valley, and lowland areas.
• The growing season is getting off to a slow but steady start. According to the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, rainfall activity as of the first half of June of this year enabled 2 383 villages, or 20 percent of farming communities, to plant part of their fields, compared with a figure of 42 percent at the same time last year. However, in spite of the relatively small number of villages having successfully planted crops, the progress of the growing season is still within the normal range, with the average start-of season in most farming areas falling somewhere between June and the beginning of July. Crops in certain parts of Dosso, Maradi, and Zinder are farther along, or in the advanced sprouting stage, with the good rainfall reported in these areas.
• Harvest assessments for market garden crops by the Ministry of Agriculture are still underway. These crops should yield an estimated cereal equivalent of over 500,000 metric tons. With last year’s good cereal harvest, approximately 80 percent of market garden crops are earmarked for sale. 
• Markets in crop-producing areas of Niger are well stocked with cereal, though supplies are comprised of an unusually large volume of imports from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Benin. The findings by the joint CILSS/FEWS NET/WFP/FAO/SIMA assessment of cereal inventories in June of this year show that the large share of imports from Burkina Faso, Mali, and Benin in domestic market supplies in Niger is due mainly to the lower prices in these countries compared with prices in Nigeria, whose markets are feeling the effects of strong local demand for cereal and restrictions imposed on domestic and foreign trade by the security problems in that country. As a result, market prices in Nigeria are 10 to 40 percent above-average, while prices on markets in Burkina Faso are reportedly approximately five percent below-average.  Millet supplies in the Maradi and Zinder regions of Niger consist largely of locally grown crops, whose high prices have prompted their substitution with sorghum, which is selling at more affordable prices on source markets in Nigeria. However, due to the substitution effect, demand for sorghum has increased and prices have risen to as much as 30 to 58 percent above the five-year average on leading retail markets in Niger.
• Millet supplies in the Diffa region are lower than usual and trader stock levels are below-average. However, in general, as far as maize is concerned, good local harvests have kept supply, demand, and prices relatively stable this year. Millet prices on source markets in Nigeria are up sharply, where the selling price of millet crops is 26 percent above-average, reducing the flow of imports into Niger. In addition, security constraints in Nigeria are preventing pastoralists in the Diffa region from exporting livestock to that country, their second largest market after Libya. As a result, livestock prices are 24 percent below-average, translating into a 40 percent decrease in terms of trade for male goats/millet. With this loss of seasonal income and erosion in terms of trade, food insecurity remains at IPC Phase 2: Stressed levels.

Current food security indicators continue to confirm the projected food security outlook for the period from April through September 2013. 

• With cereal imports from neighboring countries reporting good harvests and adequate trader stocks, in general, all parts of the country should continue to experience IPC Phase 1: « Minimal » food insecurity. Market supply should remain adequate market throughout the lean season, bolstered by the unloading of existing stocks, spurred by normal growing season conditions. The high price of millet on markets in both Nigeria and Niger will make sorghum the cereal of choice on retail markets in Maradi, Zinder, and Tahoua, which could lead to even sharper rises in prices during the lean season in agropastoral areas.
• The persistence of current security problems in Nigeria will result in losses of income for households in the Diffa region who are highly dependent on that country for cereal imports, exports of pepper crops, and live animals.   With the return of migrant workers and the decline in prices for livestock and cash crops, poor households are unable to purchase and consume adequate amounts of food due to a general erosion in purchasing power.  These households will face IPC Phase 2: « Stressed » food insecurity outcomes between June and September of this year.