A normal start-of-season in spite of the locust threat

• Despite subsided food security stress, several areas are subject to IPC Phase 3: Crisis. With the start of season, the return of migrants, and very high grain prices, grain demand for food and seeds is increasing while household financial resources are limited to income from the sale of farm labor.

• Following registered, accumulated rainfall, estimated to be generally normal for 2012/2013, sowing has begun in agricultural and agropastoral zones and the emergence of seedlings was observed in pastoral areas.

• Grain and pasture production is threatened by locust activity. Several groups of locusts have already been sighted in the Tamesna, Aïr, Ténéré, and Tanout areas (Figure 3). Locust breeding activities in June/July could reduce the availability of forest products and trigger speculative price hikes between now and September.

• A reassessment of household food security indicates a total of 225 at-risk areas with 5.5 million residents as of May/June of this year, compared with 228 at-risk areas with six million residents in October of last year. This reduction in the number of at-risk areas could be a reflection of the effectiveness of humanitarian assistance and strategies. 

A technical meeting of national and international food security partners was organized from late May to early June by the SAP to reassess household vulnerability to food insecurity. The findings show 225 at-risk areas with 5.5 million residents, compared with 228 at-risk areas with six million residents in October of 2011, the date of the original vulnerability assessment. The improvement in these numbers is a result of the relief programs helping to strengthen household income and food access. However, the above-average size of the food-insecure population of certain areas, particularly in Téra, Tillaberi, and Ouallam departments, has limited the effectiveness of food aid programs. The presence of more than 42,000 refugees is a risk factor for local food security conditions in these areas.

Status of the 2012/13 growing season

In contrast to the April Outlook, which anticipated a normal agricultural and pastoral season, the progress of the current agropastoral season could be disrupted by the threat of a severe locust infestation.  Since the beginning of June, more than 17 groups of immature winged adults and small swarms from the north have invaded areas of northern Niger between Arlit and Dirkou, including the Aïr Mountain and Ténéré desert areas, which are reporting damage to crops and date palms (FAO, Figure 3). In addition, a certain number of adult locusts continued traveling south into Sahelian grazing areas in the vicinity of Tanout. As of the middle of June, Niger’s detection and treatment teams had found 1590 of the 6000 hectares of land infested with locusts and had treated 740 hectares (GON). The National Locust Control Center drew up a national emergency locust control plan based on a scenario envisioning the treatment of 500,000 hectares of land between June and September. However, the plan does not address the likelihood of swarms of locusts invading the country from Mali, where any locust control efforts by specialized government agencies would be hampered by security problems blocking access to breeding grounds.

Otherwise, the growing season is getting off to a normal start. According to the status report by the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, 4,831 farming villages around the country, or 42 percent of farming villages, have already planted millet and sorghum crops, compared with only 32 percent at the same time last year. The start-of-season is within the average range for the beginning of the rains in all regions with the exception of Dosso, where slight delays are reported. In general, seasonal forecasts for Niger are predicting normal rainfall levels tending towards above-normal in the far southeastern and far southwestern reaches of the country. Cumulative rainfall totals since the start-of-season at 64 percent of rainfall gauging stations are higher than at the same time last year and above the historical 1981-2010 average. Millet, sorghum, and cowpea crops already in the ground have not faced any periods of water stress liable to disrupt their growth and development. The onset of the rainy season increased demand for farm labor compared with previous months, in line with normal seasonal trends. The labor supply and wage rates for local labor are also typical for this time of year.

Conditions in pastoral areas are marked by the sprouting of new shoots of vegetation, which are withering after a string of interrupted rains. There are large concentrations of animals around watering holes in the Gadabédji (Dakoro) and Northern (Ouallam) areas with good pasture resources. The good pasturelands in Tillaberi are unusually severely affected by overgrazing problems due to the presence of large herds from Mali. This will deplete the area’s pasture resources earlier than usual, by the end of June, and increase the likelihood of disputes between pastoralists over access to pastures.

Market situation

In general, markets are supplied as usual, but the quantity on certain markets cannot meet the growing demand from returning migrants, pastoralists, and traders looking to make exports to Mali. On the whole, prices for staple food crops have stabilized since April, but are still unusually high, particularly in the case of millet, the price of which continues to increase at a moderate pace. Subsidized cereal sales, as well as the reported normalization of prices on supply markets in Nigeria, are contributing to the relative price stability observed since April. In May, here were sharp price jumps in prices for millet substitutes such as sorghum and corn on a number of markets such as Tounfafi (reporting a 41% hike in sorghum prices) and Téra (where corn prices were up by 17%). In the case of sorghum, this is attributable to low market supplies as a result of the limited volume of sorghum sales by traders. Regarding corn prices, the Téra market depends on Burkina Faso for its corn supplies, which has imposed restrictions on cross-border trade. A comparison of May 2012 prices with the five-year average shows the largest anomalies in millet prices in Bakin Birdji, the main market supplying the Agadez region and grain-short areas of Zinder and Northern regions where prices are the most abnormal at  66 percent above the five-year average.

Nutrition

The nutrition situation, reflected by the number of admissions of malnourished children to therapeutic feeding centers shows an average 34 percent increase in these numbers between April and May of this year. A region-by-region breakdown shows the largest increases in the Diffa and Tillaberi regions, at over 90 percent compared to April 2012. According to nutrition officers, the combined effects of the blanket feeding program systematically screening over 600,000 children between the ages of 6 and 23 months and of other outside assistance activities mounted in these regions have contributed to the rise in admissions of malnourished children. The numbers of cases of malnutrition in children in all parts of the country are expected to climb with the onset of the rainy season creating conditions conducive to an increase in malaria cases.

Assistance

Food assistance programs include sales of 25,000 metric tons of grain at government-subsidized prices, cash and food-for-work activities, and cash transfer programs providing 225,000 households with 32,500 XOF per household per month for a period of four months.

Agropastoral zone (Tillaberi, Téra, Ouallam, and Filingué)

As of the first dekad of June of this year, more than 292 villages or 15 percent of farming villages in this area were already planting millet crops, compared with last year’s figure of only eight percent. However, the growing season has been getting off to a somewhat slow start and is not yet really underway throughout the area, which could put pressure on grain prices in the face of speculation by traders. Current market prices for grain are 20 to 50 percent above the five-year average, although markets are being supplied as normal by Nigerian traders since the restoration of a more or less normal flow of cross-border trade with that country. Price increases are a result of the high demand for grain from grain-short and pastoralist households and to meet external grain needs in Mali. With grain prices at record highs, even normal levels of household income from gainful employment are proving inadequate for the purchasing of needed quantities of grain to meet household needs. With the return of migrant workers to farm the land and the larger than usual food-insecure population, while serving as a good supplementary source of food and income, food assistance programs are not reaching all food-insecure households. Very poor and poor households in agropastoral areas will remain in IPC Phase 3: Crisis into September. Their food access will prove inadequate to meet their minimum food requirements in spite of likely emergency aid programs.

Pastoral zone (Abalak, Tchintabaraden, and Tanout)

The emergent vegetation and ongoing assistance programs in this area are helping to keep livestock in normal physical condition. Supplies on livestock markets are increasing, particularly supplies of small animals, which are generally the first animals sold to cover food costs. The larger supply of small animals from grain-demanding pastoralists drove prices down by six to 25 percent between May and June of this year. There was a sharp deterioration in terms of trade all across the area, putting them four to 30 percent below-average in the face of the record high price of grain. This is one of the areas threatened by a locust infestation, with reports of groups of desert locusts sighted around the border. This could mean heavy damage to pasture resources and deterioration in the physical condition and market value of livestock and possibly losses of livestock by September/October, making pastoralist households food-insecure.

Market gardening area of Arlit and Tchirozérine departments on the Aïr Plateau

Markets are being supplied as usual, but prices are extremely high compared with the average and figures for the same time last year. This year’s lean season is threatening to be harsher than usual for poor households with the nonpayment of laborers in market gardening operations for onion crops due to this year’s slump in sales of these crops. Without these wages, income levels are lower than usual. Household food access is being maintained by sales of small animals, migration income, and income from farm labor. The combined effects of this income and of humanitarian operations involving the distribution of over 1,600 metric tons of free food aid, the sale of 1,400 metric tons of grain at government-subsidized prices (in May-June), and cash transfer programs providing approximately 7,000 households with 32,500 XOF each are helping to improve household food access, though without completely closing the food gap. With several groups of locusts already sighted in this area, the food security situation of local populations will hinge on the desert locust situation over the next few months. There are already reports of pasturelands infested with solitary locusts.