Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in conflict-affected areas

• In December 2025 and January 2026, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are estimated in the Tillabéry, Diffa, and Tahoua regions due to continuous conflicts. There are pockets of households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) among displaced populations and those affected by flooding. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity affects the majority of areas and populations in the Tillabéry and Diffa regions, but only two out of 12 departments in the Tahoua region.
• From February to May 2026, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity outcomes will persist in these regions, with population groups still in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). However, while areas affected by food insecurity will remain the same as those observed in December 2025 and January 2026, there will be an increase in the proportions of affected populations from February to May 2026.
• Areas of concern are those affected by the cumulative effects of insecurity, flooding, and dry spells, the impacts of which include decreases in agricultural production. Poor, displaced households account for more than half of households in the highest food insecurity phases. Poor households affected by flooding and those who have been affected by long dry spells occurring during critical periods of crop phenological stages are also among the households with high acute food insecurity. Their meals are limited to one or two per day.
• The availability of consumer products is low among households that experienced their own production deficits, but the level of food supply is average in markets. Food prices continue their downward trend compared to last year's levels and the five-year average. Livestock markets show improvements in supply and prices, yet still higher than last year and the five-year average.
• This report provides an update to the October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook and November 2025 Key Message Update. The analysis is based on information available as of December 19, 2025.

Civil insecurity persists, along with infrastructure damage and human casualties, committed by armed terrorist groups in the regions of Tillabéry, Tahoua, Diffa, and Dosso. According to ACLED data, from January to November 2025, security incidents in Niger increased by 15 percent compared to the same period in 2024. In the Tillabéry and Dosso regions, security incidents increased by 25 and 230 percent, respectively. Despite this sharp increase in the Dosso region, it represents only 17 percent of total security incidents compared to 6 percent between January and November 2024. More than half of security incidents were recorded in the Tillabéry region, where sustained security pressure by armed terrorist groups is also observed.

Preliminary results from the agricultural season pointed to areas that recorded deficits relative to food consumption needs. The recorded deficits are observed in areas affected by civil insecurity and flooding due to losses of cultivated areas and harvests. However, the areas that recorded deficits in cereal crop production are in the regions of Tillabéry, Tahoua, and Diffa, according to the harvest assessment results by the Statistics Directorate in the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock.

Markets remain well supplied with cereals due to weak demand during the post-harvest period. Cereal prices are decreasing compared to last year and the five-year average. Millet, sorghum, and maize are down by 15, 14, and 22 percent, respectively, compared to last year and by 5, 6, and 12 percent compared to the five-year average (Figure 1). In addition, export bans, except in countries belonging to the Alliance of Sahel States, are also contributing to the decrease in cereal prices.

According to monitoring data shared by the Réseau Billital Maroobé (RBM), 4,741 heads of livestock (all species combined) were lost by pastoral households from January to November 2025 due to thefts by armed terrorist groups. The highest numbers of stolen livestock were recorded in the departments of Téra, Bankilaré, Torodi, Tahoua, and Dosso.

According to sentinel site survey data, the number of income sources has decreased for the majority of households. This leads to a decrease in income, with the highest proportions of household income—more than 50 percent—being allocated to food expenditures, especially in areas with limited access. Following agricultural production deficits in areas of civil insecurity, this situation leads to a reduction in essential non-food expenditures.

Seasonal income-generating activities for poor deficit households consist mainly of off-season crop labor (nurseries, transplanting/planting, and harvesting activities) already underway. Given the competition generated by the presence of people in certain agricultural surplus production areas and the increased dependence of poor, displaced households relying on agricultural labor income, labor supply is increasing, thereby reducing wages compared to the average in previous years.

Humanitarian food assistance

The most recent food assistance operations and distributions by the government and its partners were conducted from August to October 2025 to food-insecure populations, and in September and October 2025 for populations impacted by floods. A total of 16,796 tons of cereals were distributed to 1,175,802 food-insecure people, and 7,665 tons of cereals to 536,550 people impacted by floods. The development of the National Food Insecurity Response Plan by the government and the Humanitarian Response Plan by partners for the lean season has been launched and will be finalized in the first quarter of 2026, incorporating the results of the Cadre Harmonisé analysis and various sectoral analyses.

Most of the assumptions that underpinned FEWS NET’s analysis of the most likely scenario for the October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook remain valid; however, the following updates have been made to incorporate new evidence:

• Attacks by armed terrorist groups against civilian populations and security forces are expected to continue at current, high levels through at least May 2026. The Tillabéry region remains the epicenter of terrorist group activity, with Dosso experiencing the sharpest increase in violence. However, overall, militant activity is expected to follow past seasonal trends, with attacks intensifying through the peak of the rainy season and then decreasing as rainy conditions constrain movement.
• It is likely that groups affiliated with JNIM will continue to conduct complex attacks against Security Force (FDS) positions and convoys in western Niger, strengthening their position in Tillabéry, extending their presence to Dosso, and degrading the capacity of the state apparatus.
• For poor households, income from the ongoing off-season crop cycle, beginning in some parts to harvest in others, is expected to be below average, due to the excess labor supply relative to demand caused by the presence of displaced persons in production areas and the migration of populations from areas affected by agricultural deficits. These activities will constitute not only sources of food but also income for these households.
• Internal and cross-border flows will be disrupted by attacks from armed groups on trade routes, the continued closure of the Benin border, and export restrictions to Nigeria. Carryover stocks and production surpluses recorded in some conflict-free areas with minimal flood impacts will help maintain market supply, particularly benefitting from the renewed ban on cereal exports outside AES countries. However, the internal flow of goods will remain below average given the persistence of terrorist acts hindering commercial trade.
• New harvests, combined with carryover stocks and government measures aimed at strengthening national availability, will ensure that food commodity supplies will be sufficient and demand will remain near average through May 2026. Food commodity prices will follow their normal seasonal trend but will be lower than last year and the five-year average.

Humanitarian food assistance

The response plan for household food insecurity will be developed, published, and submitted for funding in the first quarter of 2026. However, due to funding difficulties and restrictions on the movement of humanitarian actors, assistance will remain insufficient to cover needs.

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity will persist from December 2025 through May 2026 in the regions of Tillabéry, Diffa, and in the far northwest of the Tahoua region due to the impacts of conflict and flooding on household livelihoods and market functioning. Pockets of households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) will be observed among internally displaced persons and households affected by flooding. From February to May 2026, the security situation will continue to disrupt livelihood activities and markets in addition to increasing ongoing population displacement. For poor households, in addition to the lack of own agricultural production due to civil insecurity and flooding that also disrupts economic opportunities, even if all income is devoted to food expenditures, it will be insufficient to access the quantities of food necessary to meet household caloric needs. Households will opt for rationing food consumption by prioritizing members with the most urgent needs and selling their last remaining assets. Furthermore, food assistance is insufficient due to financial and security constraints that limit it to reduced groups of populations located in accessible areas.

In agricultural and agropastoral zones, due to the availability of harvests that will allow poor households to meet their food consumption needs, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity will persist between December 2025 and January 2026. However, between February and May 2026, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are anticipated following the depletion of cereal stocks and the effects of the pastoral lean season on poor households, whose purchasing power will be limited to buying staple food commodities. They will be unable to make essential non-food expenditures without engaging in crisis strategies, such as reducing the quantities of food purchased and consumed.

According to the results of the SMART survey conducted in September/October 2025 by the Nutrition office in collaboration with UNICEF, global acute malnutrition among children aged 6 to 59 months reached critical rates in the Maradi region. In this region, the Tessaoua department recorded 23.5 percent, of which 5.7 percent were severe cases, while the Bermo department recorded 17.5 percent, including 3.1 percent that were severe cases. Diffa region recorded 17.1 percent, with 3.4 percent severe cases, and Zinder region recorded 12.4 percent, of which 3.9 percent were severe cases. These areas historically record high rates of global acute malnutrition that are explained by structural causes such as inadequate feeding behaviors for children and poor care practices.

Many of the key sources of evidence utilized for FEWS NET’s October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook remain the same; however, new and additional sources of evidence are listed below.