End to extended pasture and water deficits in pastoral areas

• The growing season has been marked by delays in crop planting activities. However, in general, crops are in normal stages of growth and development following an improvement in rainfall conditions and there is cause to expect average to good levels of crop production, particularly with continued steady, heavy rainfall activity through the end of September, as forecasted in the seasonal outlook.

• In pastoral areas, grazing and watering conditions for livestock having experienced effects of an extended lean season are increasingly good. Pastoral households facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity in August/September will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity between the end of September and December with the sharp improvement in pasture availability beginning the end of July. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in northern Nguigmi, the worst-affected area, will continue through October.

• The month of August for the 2014/15 growing season was marked by increased rainfall activity in all parts of the country. As of August 10^th, cumulative seasonal rainfall totals were above 300 mm at several rainfall gauging stations in the country’s wettest departments, including  Dosso, Gaya, Kollo, Madaoua, Bouza, Dogondoutchi, and Magaria. Thus, rainfall conditions in August were visibly improved compared with May, June, and early July, which were marked by dry spells and light, poorly distributed, rainfall activity. However, though not cause for concern, in spite of the improvement in rainfall conditions, there are small cumulative rainfall deficits in most farming areas of Diffa and Zinder. The heavy rains in the first week of August led to flooding, seriously affecting household livelihoods. As of August 9^th of this year, there were approximately 4,450 flood-affected households, mainly in the Dosso, Tahoua, and Tillabéri regions.

The month of August for the 2014/15 growing season was marked by increased rainfall activity in all parts of the country. As of August 10^th, cumulative seasonal rainfall totals were above 300 mm at several rainfall gauging stations in the country’s wettest departments, including  Dosso, Gaya, Kollo, Madaoua, Bouza, Dogondoutchi, and Magaria. Thus, rainfall conditions in August were visibly improved compared with May, June, and early July, which were marked by dry spells and light, poorly distributed, rainfall activity. However, though not cause for concern, in spite of the improvement in rainfall conditions, there are small cumulative rainfall deficits in most farming areas of Diffa and Zinder. The heavy rains in the first week of August led to flooding, seriously affecting household livelihoods. As of August 9^th of this year, there were approximately 4,450 flood-affected households, mainly in the Dosso, Tahoua, and Tillabéri regions.

According to findings from the start-of-season assessment mission conducted by the National Bureau of Agricultural Statistics in conjunction with the country’s food security partners, including FEWS NET, WFP, and the FAO, the growing season definitively got underway by July 31st. However, the erratic, poorly distributed rainfall throughout May and June and into early July led to localized planting failures. As of August 10^th, 200 villages in the Tchirozérine, Iferouāne, Ingal, and Arlit areas of Agadez and the Goudoumaria area of Diffa had reportedly not planted any crops. In the case of the Agadez region, crop growing activities hinge on runoff from koris (small intermittent streams) and not on rainfall levels in this area. Most millet crops (30 percent) are in the height growth stage of development, while most sorghum crops (34 percent) are in the advanced sprouting stage. However, a large percentage of crops in the Diffa, Zinder, and Maradi regions are still in less advanced sprouting stages (five to ten percent of crops). Without continued normal rainfall activity through the end of September and even into the first week of October in certain areas, this large share of crops still in less advanced stages of development could translate into a mediocre outcome for the growing season.

In general, an examination of the condition of pasturelands shows a visible improvement in vegetative cover following the heavy rains since the end of July. However, satellite imagery of the state of vegetation (NDVI) in the area between Ouallam and Nguigmi for the first dekad of August shows below-average levels of natural vegetation. In general, animal health conditions are good and there are no major epizootic outbreaks.

Most demand on livestock markets is from local buyers for the fattening of animals for the upcoming Feast of Tabaski. In general, prices are close to the five-year average and figures for last year, sustained by regular trading, except on the Tchirozérine and Ingal markets in Agadez, the Abalak and Tchintabaraden markets in Tahoua, and the Nguigmi and Diffa City markets in Diffa, where prices were driven down by emergency herd thinning efforts in response to the atypical shortages of pasture and water in these areas in June-July.

Cereal markets across the country are functioning normally. There are normal and, in some cases, large market supplies, with the increased rainfall activity prompting traders and surplus-producing farmers to unload their inventories. The normal rainy season conditions in late July-early August helped normalize supplies and government programs providing different types of subsidies are expected to stabilize or control the normal upward movement in cereal prices.

Trends in food security indicators support the projected food security outlook for July through December 2014.

Consumer demand has normalized with the end of the fasting period for Ramadan and the operation of food and other social assistance programs. Household food access is ensured by market purchasing with income from farm labor and government assistance. With these food resources, most households, including poor households, will be able to meet their food needs by restricting other nonfood spending between August and the end of September. With a rainfall outlook with the potential to produce an average harvest, households will be able to meet their food consumption and nonfood needs between October and December without government and humanitarian assistance and will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity with the upcoming harvests beginning in October. However, should the rains fail to last as long as expected in the updated seasonal outlook, there will be shortfalls in crop production in certain areas, where households will cut back certain types of nonfood spending towards the end of December.

Following the atypically long shortage of pasture and water through mid-July, poor pastoral households will be unable to meet their own food needs and those of their livestock with their own resources. Thus, they will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in Nguigmi through the end of August, which should give way to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity between September and December, spurred by a major improvement in the physical condition of the animal population and in demand for and the market value of livestock with the upcoming religious holidays (Tabaski in October and the year-end holidays in December). However, limited domestic demand and lack of demand for exports will continue to hold down prices for livestock and their value in trade for grain in Nguigmi department, which will keep local households Stressed (IPC Phase 2).