Harvests improve food security across most of the country

• FEWS NET estimates that between 100,000 and 249,999 people will need humanitarian food aid. This figure will increase toward the upper limit of the range during the hot, dry season from February to May. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected among poor farming and agropastoral households in the south-central and southwestern regions. Hodh El Chargui is the area of greatest concern due to the pressure from Malian refugees and their livestock on natural resources, the local economy, and basic social infrastructure. Hodh El Chargui was classified as being in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the lean season but is expected to shift to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to the availability of harvests and livestock products, as well as improved water supply and pastures. However, some populations will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 
• Some poor and very poor households in Nouakchott peri-urban areas will also face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes between October and May. These households, struggling with limited employment and income opportunities, are faced with high prices and are unable to cover non-food expenses without employing Crisis coping strategies.
• Between October 2024 and January 2025, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected in agricultural and agropastoral areas, as most households are expected to have access to food and income from their own production, livestock, and typical food and income sources.
• Between February and May 2025, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected across agricultural and agropastoral areas due to the typical depletion of food reserves. Most farming households, which will need to rely on markets for food, will face above-average prices.

Learn more

The following links provide additional information: 

• Latest Remote Monitoring Report for Mauritania, February 2024
• Overview of FEWS NET's scenario development methodology 
• FEWS NET's approach to estimating the population in need 
• Overview of IPC and IPC-compatible analysis 
• FEWS NET's approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis

Agriculture, agropastoralism, and pastoralism are the main livelihoods for around half of Mauritania's population, while the other half work mainly in the informal labor sector in urban areas. Production of staple cereals – sorghum, millet, rice, and maize – utilizes diverse cropping systems (rainfed, irrigated, and flood-recession), but remains highly vulnerable to climatic shocks such as prolonged droughts, floods, and bush fires, which have long been a key factor in acute food insecurity. 

While overall cereal production has improved over the years due to measures taken by the State to increase rice-growing areas and make quality inputs available, it covers only around a third of national food requirements, resulting in heavy dependence on imports. This import dependence renders the country vulnerable to global economic shocks and is another key factor contributing to acute food insecurity in the country, driving very high food prices and poor economic opportunities, which particularly affect poor households in peri-urban areas. 

In addition to climatic and economic shocks, Mauritania has hosted over 240,000 Malian refugees since 2012, mainly in the southeastern regions. The number of arrivals has risen significantly since August 2023 following an increase in violence perpetrated by various armed groups in Mali. With the main Mbera camp already nearly full, new arrivals are living among communities outside the camp, putting pressure on limited food and income sources.

Instability in Mali also affects seasonal livestock movements and prevents cross-border transhumance, in addition to driving seasonal conflicts between farmers and herders. Typically, by October, the rains have regenerated pastures and water resources, improving the physical condition of livestock and, consequently, household access to livestock products. For farming households, the month of October marks the beginning of the main harvest season which lasts until January. However, as the dry season lasts until May, households generally exhaust their food stocks and increasingly rely on markets as the next lean season approaches (Figure 1).

National

The rainfall deficit recorded at the beginning of the agricultural season and the delay in crop establishment have led to a reduction in the total area planted for rainfed cereals (millet, sorghum, and maize). While the prospects for rainfed crop harvests are average, those for irrigated crops (behind dams, in depression areas) and irrigated rice crops are expected to be above the five-year average due to government measures aimed at increasing production. Overall, total cereal harvests are expected to be 16 percent above the five-year average, although they will be slightly lower than last year’s harvests (by 5 percent). 

After some drought episodes in July and August, rainfall generally improved in September, contributing to above-average pasture development in October. However, some localized areas experienced biomass production deficits, particularly in the north of Trarza, Tagant, Adrar, Inchiri, and central and northern Hodh El Chargui. By contrast, in the far southeast of the country, along the Malian border, grazing is much more abundant (Figure 2). Heavy rainfall at the end of the season, particularly in the Guidimagha and Trarza regions, caused flooding in October, displacing around 1,125 people.

Markets are regularly supplied with food items, and overall, prices are stable compared to both last month and the same time last year. However, prices remain above the five-year average. According to the National Agency for Statistics and Demographic and Economic Analysis (ANSADE), food prices in September increased by 0.5 percent month-on-month and 3 percent year-on-year. Overall, the national consumer price index recorded general stability (0.2 percent) compared to the previous month, while remaining above the five-year average (Figure 3). However, some price data available for Nouakchott in August suggest that the prices of certain imported products (such as sugar, broken rice, and vegetable oil) were much higher than last year (14, 16, and 60 percent, respectively), and higher than the five-year average (48, 24, and 45 percent, respectively). As for local products (sorghum and millet), prices decreased in October due to the arrival of the harvest, although they remain above the five-year average.

Security tensions persist at the Malian border due to the Malian military's border security operations. Additionally, Mauritanian populations living along the border are strongly advised against any travel within Malian territory.

Hodh El Chargui Wilaya 

According to UNHCR, the Hodh El Chargui region in southeastern Mauritania hosts over 242,000 Malian refugees, with approximately 110,000 residing in the Mbera camp and 132,000 spread across 70 host villages. The new arrivals, mostly herders moving with their livestock, place significant pressure on pastoral resources, local economies, and basic social services. Meanwhile, the availability of pastoral resources is expected to be poor, particularly in the central and northern parts of Hodh El Chargui.

Assistance alimentaire humanitaire

WFP's lean season response concluded in October. However, according to plans, WFP continues to provide humanitarian assistance to Malian refugees and UNHCR also continues to provide vital support to the most vulnerable refugees. According to their Country Strategic Plan (CSP), the response to refugees will target around 115,000 individuals in 2024, in coordination with the national social protection system, which also includes assistance to refugees. 

National assumptions 

• According to the most likely forecasts from the Ministry of Agriculture, cereal production is expected to be 5 percent lower than last year, but 16 percent higher than the five-year average. Rainfed crops are expected to have the highest decline, while irrigated crops should perform better and help offset the deficit in rainfed crops.
• The availability of income sources in agropastoral rural areas will likely be positively impacted by favorable pastoral conditions. Similarly, wage labor income for animal care and livestock sales will be beneficial to poor households. At the urban level, however, the slowdown in economic activity, along with the rise in fuel prices and the overall cost of living, is expected to persist until May.
• Import prices will remain at levels above the five-year average. However, the prices of local products, which began their seasonal downward trend with the start of the harvest, will stabilize in December and begin a typical upward climb until May.

Sub-national assumptions for Hodh El Chargui 

• The Malian military's border security operations will continue throughout the projection period, exacerbating the ongoing displacement of many Malian herders and their livestock towards the Mbera camp and surrounding areas.
• Given the poor grazing conditions in the north of the country and on the Malian side of the border strip with Mauritania, both internal and external transhumance in Mali is expected to start atypically early. Southern Hodh El Chargui, which has good pasture availability, will become a fallback area for many herds coming from the north and west of the country, increasing pressure on local resources. The risk of overgrazing and bushfires remains a major challenge for this area.

Humanitarian food assistance

• According to its Country Strategic Plan, WFP is expected to continue supporting refugees until they are integrated into basic social services and the economy, or until they can eventually return to Mali. Assistance should continue without interruption, particularly for refugees both inside and outside of the Mbéra camp. However, assistance for host populations is expected to decrease during the post-harvest period to reflect the availability of food during this time. 

Agropastoral, rainfed, and the valley zones 

Most agricultural and agropastoral households in these zones are expected to benefit from increased availability of household food stocks and income from livelihood activities between October 2024 and January 2025 and remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1). However, some households will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, particularly among the poorest households and those affected by rainfall deficits or flooding. Given the expected impact of rainfall deficits on crop production, food security outcomes of poor households are expected to deteriorate atypically early as stocks deplete and households become increasingly market dependent while facing high food prices. Many households that were in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) will transition to Stressed (IPC Phase 2), with some households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) towards the end of the projection period.

Hodh EL Chargui 

The new harvests, along with livestock production (meat, milk), are expected to improve the food consumption of poor households. However, the high number of refugees in the area will continue to strain local economic resources, livelihoods, and basic social services. During this period, poor households are expected to be able to meet their minimum food needs but will be unable to afford certain non-food expenditures and face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Some of the poorest households (lacking assets and relying on aid) will likely continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Although the zone will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2), the proportion of the population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will increase towards the end of the projection period.

Peri-urban areas 

Poor and very poor households will continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes due to high prices for basic foodstuffs, a lack of employment and income opportunities, and below-average purchasing power. However, the classification at the regional level will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 

Hodh el Chargui 

Sudden deterioration of the security situation at the Mali border

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: A sudden deterioration of the security situation at the Mali border could further disrupt trade flows and increase the influx of Malian refugees to Bassikounou. This could exceed the social and humanitarian support capacity of the area, constituting a further shock that would lead to an increase in food insecurity, pushing the region into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) before the lean season.